Israel and Palestine

[Hilldog]

Could the U.S. conduct a two state resolution for Israel and Palestine?

[Blue3]

No. The best time-frame was during the Bush Administration, with Abbas and pre-Netanyahu.

But honestly, in the 1990's people saw this as the last real conflict in the world, the one obstacle to world peace. Now the world, and that region in particular, is a lot more screwed up. And it makes this conflict look minor in comparison.

And really, while we should help, but it's not the responsibility of the United States in particular.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Ideally, we'd get to the point where negotiations could be conducted again and a solution would be hashed out.

However, that time isn't now. And the idea of the US imposing a solution via the UN is probably the clearest way to turn a low boil conflict very, very hot in a hurry.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Ideally, we'd get to the point where negotiations could be conducted again and a solution would be hashed out.

However, that time isn't now. And the idea of the US imposing a solution via the UN is probably the clearest way to turn a low boil conflict very, very hot in a hurry.

[ag]

I am afraid, increasingly, it is too late. And, in any case, it is not the US that can do it. At least, not through active diplomatic action.

[Hilldog]

Imposition isn't the way now I agree.  As a conservative I don't like using the phrase "sit down and talk" but if it saves lives in the long run some sort of negotiations are helpful.  These countries have long histories and with long histories come long memories.  It goes back to Isaac and Ishmael unfortunately.

[warandwar]

It goes back to Isaac and Ishmael unfortunately.

What? No, it doesn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This thread is a Bad Idea guys...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This thread is a Bad Idea guys...

Pretty much any thread started by Derek will be a bad idea.

[Potus]

Two states will not be a solution.

[SATW]

I have arrived. Waiting for the haters to enter the arena.

[DavidB.]

Could the U.S. conduct a two state resolution for Israel and Palestine?

No.

[ag]

I have arrived. Waiting for the haters to enter the arena.

I have entered. So?

[ag]

This thread is a Bad Idea guys...

Only because it is boring. Nobody cares anymore.

[SATW]

I have arrived. Waiting for the haters to enter the arena.

I have entered. So?

we need like a moderator or something #israelipallydebate2016

[ag]

I have arrived. Waiting for the haters to enter the arena.

I have entered. So?

we need like a moderator or something #israelipallydebate2016

I do not speak Twittish.

[Zinneke]

This thread is a Bad Idea guys...

Only because it is boring. Nobody cares anymore.

Just wait until a new eruption of violence is back on the TV screen. Meanwhile Netenyahu and Abbas turn up the rhetoric at the UN and the rest of the world rinses itself selling weapons on the cheap (or in the US's case, actually giving them millions to buy weapons) then having to rebuild Gaza/West Bank with humanitarian aid.

[dead0man]

Just wait until a new eruption of violence is back on the TV screen.

We don't care about violence if it's just a bunch of assholes stabbing civilians.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well they are rebuilding the tunnels with that UN humanitarian aid (and using children to build them) so you've got that to be proud of.

[Badger]

It's the only way. Period. War without victory will continue until it happens.

Ain't gonna be soon though.

[Comrade Funk]

Palestinians are irrational and Israelis are increasingly becoming irrational as well. Guess that's the ultimate outcome when you believe the magic fairy upstairs gave the land to you only, no one else.

[Famous Mortimer]

I still think it will go down like this: The next Prime Minister or the Prime Minister after next will be some right-wing expansionist who will annex the West Bank wholesale. Palestinians there will either be immediately made citizens and given the right to vote, or else there will be a boycott from the EU that causes the next government to give them citizenship and voting rights. In the first election after that, the Arab parties and the left team up, Israel becomes a secular nation, changes their flag and national anthem and maybe even their name. The border with Gaza will also be open, shortly after that, the Arab led government will vote to simply absorb Gaza. More than 50% of Israeli Jews will immigrate to the United States.

[ag]

I still think it will go down like this: The next Prime Minister or the Prime Minister after next will be some right-wing expansionist who will annex the West Bank wholesale. Palestinians there will either be immediately made citizens and given the right to vote, or else there will be a boycott from the EU that causes the next government to give them citizenship and voting rights. In the first election after that, the Arab parties and the left team up, Israel becomes a secular nation, changes their flag and national anthem and maybe even their name. The border with Gaza will also be open, shortly after that, the Arab led government will vote to simply absorb Gaza. More than 50% of Israeli Jews will immigrate to the United States.

There is a basic flaw in this timeline. Good Israeli Zionist left would be as opposed to this, as the right. The reason these people are for the two-state solution is precisely that they do not want the one state (and, unlike the right, are not willing to govern a disenfranchised minority as unwilling subjects). Jewish Israel is as imperative for them, as it is for the right. The few exceptions are already in the Hadash. Even among Meretz voters/activists it would be very much a minority stance to support decommunalization of the state.

So, if the WBankers were to be given citizenship, this would be followed by a lengthy period of communal Jewish governments, with Grand Zionist coalitions being a temporary norm and Arabs forming the main opposition. In a way, Israeli politics would become similar to that in the Baltic states: coalition governments, whose composition would never change with "unacceptable" opposition, which, in turn, would uncontestedly dominate mayoralties in the minority areas. This may, eventually, break down, but it would take, at least, something like 40 years. A couple of generations would have to pass, bible-style.

In fact, I strongly suspect this is what will happen, eventually (unless a major Israeli military defeat interferes). It will be a one-state solution. West Bank will be annexed (Gaza will either become independent or Egyptian), the local population will be partially (though not very successfully) pushed out (possibly, in a few cases, through border adjustments with Jordan), the rest will be given citizenship and a communal semi-democracy will be established nationwide, with elections regular, but highly unexciting. The grand compact of the Jewish parties will be permanently in power, the opposition coalition would be heavily Arab-dominated. This situation will last for a long, long time, long enough so that I will not be around to see what happens later.

[Famous Mortimer]

With regards to the Israeli left being too pro-2 state, I've had this discussion before on here. I just don't believe it. Certainly many young activists on the left are open to a single, non-Jewish state. Even among the establishment politicians of the centre-left, I think many have secretly made peace with the idea. Publicly they are very strong for 2 states though because they are worried about being painted as traitors or unpatriotic. It's simply overcompensation. The same reason they call their party "Zionist Union". It reminds me of how American Democrats backed the Iraq War and opposed gay marriage to prove they weren't dangerous radicals but as soon as the political winds become more favorable, they revealed their real positions.

With regards to Gaza, I'm even more sure you are wrong there. Egypt will not take it. It might become independent for an interim period but as soon as tensions with Israel ease (which is likely if West Bank Arabs are given citizenship), immigration and cross border trade will dramatically increase. Israel and Gaza will become economically entwined in such a way that unification will become inevitable (especially if the Israeli Arabs continually campaign for it).

[ag]

as soon as tensions with Israel ease

I.e., at least 40+ years after the WB annexation.

A generation of Jewish Israelis would have to die out first.

[America Needs R'hllor]

With regards to the Israeli left being too pro-2 state, I've had this discussion before on here. I just don't believe it. Certainly many young activists on the left are open to a single, non-Jewish state. Even among the establishment politicians of the centre-left, I think many have secretly made peace with the idea. Publicly they are very strong for 2 states though because they are worried about being painted as traitors or unpatriotic. It's simply overcompensation. The same reason they call their party "Zionist Union". It reminds me of how American Democrats backed the Iraq War and opposed gay marriage to prove they weren't dangerous radicals but as soon as the political winds become more favorable, they revealed their real positions.

With regards to Gaza, I'm even more sure you are wrong there. Egypt will not take it. It might become independent for an interim period but as soon as tensions with Israel ease (which is likely if West Bank Arabs are given citizenship), immigration and cross border trade will dramatically increase. Israel and Gaza will become economically entwined in such a way that unification will become inevitable (especially if the Israeli Arabs continually campaign for it).

As an Israeli center-leftist who knows many like me, I have to disagree. The left will never support a unified state with two official nationalities (Jewish and Palestinian) because it would mean the complete destruction of the zionist dream. I firmly believe that the only way for zionism and Israel to survive is a two-state solution, and I want to believe that Israelis and Palestinians will slowly realize it too. The survival of Israel as a Democratic, Jewish state is vital for all Jews worldwide.