Has the Clinton Outreach to Millennials been a Success or Failure?

[NOVA Green]

It is well acknowledged that Millennial voters were a key element of the Obama coalition in both '08/'12, and that this is a major part of the Obama Coalition where Clinton is currently struggling.

40% of Millennials are minority Americans in terms of race and ethnicity.

This is a demographic that overwhelmingly supported Bernie in the primaries, that has the highest unfavorables for Trump, in what is now the largest generation in modern American history  (<35 years old) even surpassing the Baby Boomers...

Clinton is currently having major issues with Millennial voters, that not only rejected her overwhelmingly in the Democratic Primaries, but also within a broader electorate that voted heavily Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

Has the Clinton campaign so far done a solid outreach to Millennial voters, and has it been a success or failure?

[NOVA Green]

My personal opinion is that Clinton should have reached out earlier and emphasized core Party issues important to Millennials, including an increase of the minimum wage to $12-15/hr, affordable college education with a focus on her community college program, as well as affirming her support for climate change legislation with a free market incentive based model.

Additionally Federal reform of Marijuana Policy and promotion of an alternative policy to deal with drug abuse and addiction that focuses less on incarceration and more on substance abuse treatment would play better with the younger generation, and peel off some of the Johnson/Stein supporters.

This is also the generation that bore the disproportionate impact of the the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, so reducing some of the stereotypes that she is a warmonger would likely help as well
...

[NOVA Green]

The debate Tonight might well be an opportunity to make a pitch to Millennials that have so far been mostly ignored since the convention by the campaign.

I'll need to check the poll settings to see if I can allow voters to modify their vote based upon what they see tonight and further down the line.

[NOVA Green]

This is what the Hillary Clinton supporters trying to register voters on the FSU campus look like:

Chairman Sanchez....

You just made me laugh and almost spit out the brew I am sipping before the debate....

[NOVA Green]

Although I am not a Millennial and did not support Clinton in the primaries, I am moving my vote to a maybe-maybe not category, since she did check certain issues in the debate including affordable college tuition, minimum wage increase, and did a much better job on elective wars overseas where the brunt is disproportionately carried by the Americans of military age.

Also, Trump was the only one that mentioned Climate Change, it likely benefited Clinton with this demographic.

Additionally, Trump's "law and order" memo and talking about "stop and frisk" likely didn't help as well, considering that this is mainly a program that focuses on non-violent drug offenses, rather than actually violence in the streets of larger cities in America.

[NOVA Green]

Am now shifting my vote to a moderate success....

Not only her debate performance, but Trump's post-debate meltdown, combined with a recent policy platform unveiling, appears to indicate that she is finally starting to consolidate some Millennial support behind her.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-announces-national-service-reserve-for-millennials-153311173.html

[NOVA Green]

Bump....

So it appears the Clinton managed to succeed in losing White Millennial voters to Trump, which was a demographic group that Obama won in 2008, and I believe 2012 as well....

Additionally, voter turnout in this age group appears to have dropped, and add on top of that a significant defection to 3rd Party candidates and write-in votes (Bernie, Romney, McMullen???).

Discuss....

[NOVA Green]

So in 2008 according to the CNN exit polls"

Voters 18-29----Obama: 66%-  McCain 32%
Whites 18-29--- Obama  54%- McCain 44%
Black 18-29---- Obama  95%- McCain 4%
Latino 18-29--- Obama  76%-  McCain 19%


2012----

Voters 18-29--- Obama 60%- Romney 37%  (D-6, R +5)
Voters 30-44--- Obama 52%- Romney 45%
White 18-29--- Obama 44%- Romney 51%   (D-10, R+7)
Whites 30-44--- Obama 41%- Romney 57%
Blacks 18-29--- Obama 91%- Romney 8%  (D-4, R+4)
Latinos 18-29--- Obama 74%- Romney 23% (D-2, R +4)

Blacks and Latinos 30-44 not broken out in Exit poll numbers...


2016---

Voters 18-29--- Clinton 55%- Trump 37% (D-5, R 0)
Voters 30-44--- Clinton  50%- Trump 42%  (D-2, R-3)
Whites 18-29--- Clinton 43% Trump 48% (D-1, R-3)
Whites 30-44--- Clinton 37% - Trump 55% (D-4, R-2)
Blacks 18-29-- Clinton 83%- Trump 9% (D-8, R +1)
Blacks 30-44--- Clinton 87%- Trump 7%
Latinos 18-29-- Clinton 70%- Trump 24% (D-4, R+1)
Latinos 30-44--  ??

So regardless, anyway you look at it between '08 and '16:

Voters 18-29--- (D -11, R +5)
Whites 18-29--- ( D-11, R +4)
Blacks 18-29---  (D-12, R +5)
Latinos 18-29-- (D-6, R+5)

So regardless of however one chooses to slice and dice the numbers, there was a clear drop-off in Millennial support among all ethnic demographics between 2008 and 2016, if one chooses to believe the exit polls....

Now obviously there are overlapping age ranges as people shift into different age groups over eight years of elections, but still the decline in Democratic voting patterns among 18-29 year olds appears across the board, with the lowest dip between '08 and '16 among Latino voters.

This collapse was already evident in the 2012 numbers where Democrats faced a major collapse among White Millennial voters, as well as smaller drops among Black and Latino Millenials.

Interestingly enough in 2016, both major party candidates saw a significant dropoff in Millennial support, with some possible small movement in the margins among Latino and Black Millennials.

Most interesting however is that White Millennials 18-29 that swung hardest against Trump
this election, where although Clinton lost 1% off of Obama '12 numbers, Trump lost 3%  (Johnson, Stein, McMullen, Write-In Bernie?)

At this point I'm thinking that Clinton's outreach to Millennials has been a failure, considering that demographically the largest Generation did not swing her way, despite an increasingly ethnically diverse population, and a massive defection to 3rd Party candidates....