CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 (user search)
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  CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1  (Read 6560 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: September 26, 2016, 09:20:07 AM »

In all likelihood, Clinton doesn't have anything scheduled in Colorado because her analytics team doesn't think it's all that competitive. I sound like a broken record right now but these results aren't compelling to me; ~43% of Colorado Whites have a Bachelor's degree or higher, there's been a massive influx of kush-smoking millennials to Denver, there's a very substantial Mexican-American community in Colorado etc. Pollsters also have a perennial problem estimating Colorado's voting behavior. They're always off in the Republican direction. There's every reason to believe that this problem has only gotten worse recently.

This ignores the fact that the 2014 senate result was IDENTICAL to the RCP average.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 09:25:29 AM »

In all likelihood, Clinton doesn't have anything scheduled in Colorado because her analytics team doesn't think it's all that competitive. I sound like a broken record right now but these results aren't compelling to me; ~43% of Colorado Whites have a Bachelor's degree or higher, there's been a massive influx of kush-smoking millennials to Denver, there's a very substantial Mexican-American community in Colorado etc. Pollsters also have a perennial problem estimating Colorado's voting behavior. They're always off in the Republican direction. There's every reason to believe that this problem has only gotten worse recently.

This ignores the fact that the 2014 senate result was IDENTICAL to the RCP average.

In this case, the fact that Colorado's 2014 senate result was identity to the RCP average is actually an indication that Colorado pollsters have a hard time obtaining representative samples.

Oh right, you subscribe to Nate Silver's belief in herding.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2016, 10:07:49 AM »

I'm still convinced many people who toy with the idea of voting for the orange faced dictator will sober up come election day.

Plenty of people, including other candidates, assumed that Trump's numbers in the primaries would automatically decrease with time. They didn't.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2016, 10:14:46 AM »

CNN ratings dropped behind MSNBC last month. They doing this for ratings.

This is purely ridiculous.
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