David Plouffe: Clinton campaign confident about FL/CO/PA/VA from internal data

[HillOfANight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.ae6ac5307100

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Classic Conservative]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

[HillOfANight]

Surprised they didn't talk about North Carolina, which they've been spending a ton of time in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Yes, but if they don't resume advertising in CO/VA, it indicates they really are confident.  Follow the money.

[Classic Conservative]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Yes, but if they don't resume advertising in CO/VA, it indicates they really are confident.  Follow the money.

I agree that VA is probably out of reach, but from what I've heard the Super Pac is returning to CO next month.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/JustinBarasky/status/780393740229812224

They said they would consider advertising in Colorado, and it seems like they're keeping that option open.

[Gass3268]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Yes, but if they don't resume advertising in CO/VA, it indicates they really are confident.  Follow the money.

I agree that VA is probably out of reach, but from what I've heard the Super Pac is returning to CO next month.

The SuperPac shouldn't know their camp's numbers as it is illegal to coordinate.

[Gustaf]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Yes, but if they don't resume advertising in CO/VA, it indicates they really are confident.  Follow the money.

I agree that VA is probably out of reach, but from what I've heard the Super Pac is returning to CO next month.

The SuperPac shouldn't know their camp's numbers as it is illegal to coordinate.

It is conceivable, I think, that a SuperPac might do some polling of their own.

[Gass3268]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Yes, but if they don't resume advertising in CO/VA, it indicates they really are confident.  Follow the money.

I agree that VA is probably out of reach, but from what I've heard the Super Pac is returning to CO next month.

The SuperPac shouldn't know their camp's numbers as it is illegal to coordinate.

It is conceivable, I think, that a SuperPac might do some polling of their own.

Of course or they use the public polls.

[Xing]

Of course, they have to say that they're confident they'll win the election, but what's interesting about these kinds of statements is the state they do and don't mention. It's interesting that they mentioned Florida, but not North Carolina or Ohio. They didn't mention Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire either, but that might be because those states are smaller.

[Brittain33]

Of course, they have to say that they're confident they'll win the election, but what's interesting about these kinds of statements is the state they do and don't mention. It's interesting that they mentioned Florida, but not North Carolina or Ohio. They didn't mention Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire either, but that might be because those states are smaller.

That's a really good point. It's easy to believe they are confident in the states they mention while being down on Ohio and Iowa.

[Volrath50]

My experience has been that when a campaign starts saying their internal polls look good, things are actually really bad.

[ursulahx]

My experience has been that when a campaign starts saying their internal polls look good, things are actually really bad.

I'd agree, except that my understanding is that Plouffe's data isn't based exclusively on polls.

[HillOfANight]

Of course, they have to say that they're confident they'll win the election, but what's interesting about these kinds of statements is the state they do and don't mention. It's interesting that they mentioned Florida, but not North Carolina or Ohio. They didn't mention Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire either, but that might be because those states are smaller.

The original post mentioned NH.

[Arbitrage1980]

Hillary should not worry about CO, VA, PA. If I were advising them, I would tell them to focus on NC, NH, WI, FL.

[Virginiá]

My experience has been that when a campaign starts saying their internal polls look good, things are actually really bad.

Possibly, but look where they amp up spending and allocation of other resources, while keeping in mind that, iirc, Priorities USA always planned to go back on the air in CO/VA/PA at the end of September. Clinton's campaign didn't reserve ads for VA/CO, so if they do end up buying in those states, they probably see unfavorable trends in their own data.

Follow the money. That is one sign of worry they cannot hide.

[Yank2133]

My experience has been that when a campaign starts saying their internal polls look good, things are actually really bad.

I'd agree, except that my understanding is that Plouffe's data isn't based exclusively on polls.

He doesn't care much for public polling and has been on record of saying that for months. Anyway, he is correct, the issue for HRC isn't Trump, but her own supporters. She has to get them more excited for  her candidacy and the first debate is a good opportunity to do so. 

[Kempros]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

That's right. In 2012, Romney indicated that the election was for sure his to win, became too confident and let his guard down. Sometimes history may repeat itself.

[Yank2133]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

That's right. In 2012, Romney indicated that the election was for sure his to win, became too confident and let his guard down. Sometimes history may repeat itself.

Terrible comparison.

For starters, Romney never lead at any point of the election, which is the opposite of HRC. And on top of that, Romney's campaign based their entire strategy on one electorate model(2004), HRC's campaign is the same as the Obama campaign, who have various different voting models and are less likely to get caught off guard.

[Seriously?]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the Democrats are getting killed in absentee requests in Florida.

[Ebsy]

They all say this to gin up enthusiasm. The GOP said the same with Mitt.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the Democrats are getting killed in absentee requests in Florida.

That's an... interesting interpretation of the data.

[Ljube]

My experience has been that when a campaign starts saying their internal polls look good, things are actually really bad.

[Blue3]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.ae6ac5307100

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So then it's Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina to worry about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.ae6ac5307100

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So then it's Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina to worry about.

And amazingly, NC looks like her best state of the three.