Welp, this explains iowa and Ohio and Nevada.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:21:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Welp, this explains iowa and Ohio and Nevada.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Welp, this explains iowa and Ohio and Nevada.  (Read 977 times)
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 26, 2016, 11:09:34 AM »



Evan McMurry
Evan McMurry‏ @evanmcmurry
Trump with a *59 point* lead over Clinton among white men without a college degree, nearly double Romney's 2012 margin.
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 11:10:09 AM »

Wow
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2016, 11:14:43 AM »

   C'mon Trump you can do better than this.  Norbert Hofer in Austria, running with some similar themes, got 93% of the blue collar vote in Austria's first presidential runoff this spring, and Clinton will likely get in the 90's with the black vote.  Would love to see the electoral map with Trump getting in the 90's with NCWM.
Logged
Pyro
PyroTheFox
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,697
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2016, 11:17:11 AM »

Looks like Aleppo cut 4% into Johnson's #s. Ouch.
Logged
elcorazon
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2016, 11:17:47 AM »



Evan McMurry
Evan McMurry‏ @evanmcmurry
Trump with a *59 point* lead over Clinton among white men without a college degree, nearly double Romney's 2012 margin.
pure sexism
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2016, 11:26:33 AM »

But naturally, the Latino polls have no bearing on the races in CO, FL, and NV.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,752
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2016, 11:30:47 AM »

Wow, I love the men all of a sudden! I have a great relationship with the men.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2016, 11:33:58 AM »

Ype, this is what the Trump campaign has to be counting on as well as much higher non-college White men turnout.  If Trump manages to win then it will be the revenge election of 1868 when the Dem's losing ticket had

Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2016, 11:36:57 AM »

Wow, I love the men all of a sudden! I have a great relationship with the men.
All of a sudden? Tongue
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2016, 11:37:09 AM »

It explains why she's so weak in these states; it does not explain why state polls are still showing her losing them.

Her lead has increased by 3 points among white college graduates (a group Romney won by a sizeable margin) and her deficit has decreased by 5 points among non-college white women.

It definitely says something that non-college white men are now the second-most-solid voting bloc in the country after blacks, though.

And finally: the gender gap between white men and white women has more than doubled, from 18 points to 42 points.  In fact, Clinton is now even leading among white women.

You cannot build a winning coalition off of white men alone.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2016, 11:48:26 AM »

And finally: the gender gap between white men and white women has more than doubled, from 18 points to 42 points.  In fact, Clinton is now even leading among white women.

In fact, related to this: the "Sure, Honey" effect. (as in this Grauniad Article.)

Clearly, with a 42-point gender gap, we've got a lot of marriages / cohabitations among white people where the husband is a Trump supporter and the woman supports Clinton.  (A fair amount of the gender gap is presumably from single women vs. single men, but clearly not all of it.)

Clearly, the "shy Trump" voter isn't a thing (except perhaps in certain major metropolitan areas), but it could be that we have some married women who fully intend to vote for Clinton, but answer the poll within earshot of their husband and say Trump anyway. Wink
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 11:58:22 AM »

And finally: the gender gap between white men and white women has more than doubled, from 18 points to 42 points.  In fact, Clinton is now even leading among white women.

In fact, related to this: the "Sure, Honey" effect. (as in this Grauniad Article.)

Clearly, with a 42-point gender gap, we've got a lot of marriages / cohabitations among white people where the husband is a Trump supporter and the woman supports Clinton.  (A fair amount of the gender gap is presumably from single women vs. single men, but clearly not all of it.)

Clearly, the "shy Trump" voter isn't a thing (except perhaps in certain major metropolitan areas), but it could be that we have some married women who fully intend to vote for Clinton, but answer the poll within earshot of their husband and say Trump anyway. Wink

I am sure it is true to some extent but we should not exaggerate how often this takes place.  Given assortative mating patterns non-college white men most likely have a non-college white women as a spouse.  If the breakdown of non-college white men is 76-17 Trump and non-college white is 62-30 overall that implies non-college white women is around 48-43 Trump.  Assuming most households tends to vote en bloc then at most 1/3 of non-college white households would have this situation of Trump (male partner) - Clinton (female partner.)  This is a lot of course but it is still the minority of such households.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2016, 12:03:05 PM »

  In terms of white women, marital status is huge.  Married women are so much more likely to vote GOP, in this election and in elections past.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2016, 12:13:30 PM »

In fact these numbers should make it clear what Trump's strategy should be tonight.  He has to target College White Men by looking like he is credible on the economy and he has to target Married non-college   White women with populist-cultural appeals to get them to overlook the gender divide and vote with their spouses.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 13 queries.