How will the debate affect the polls?

[Higgs]

Curious what ya'll think on this.

[MasterJedi]

Clinton swing by about 1-2%, she can build on it in the coming month and a bit and gain real momentum though, especially if Trump has another performance like that.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A 2-3% shift to Clinton, but the fact that there will be another debate in 8 days will act as another reset.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Moderate shift towards Clinton for now, but enjoy it while it lasts.

[Virginiá]

A 2-3% shift to Clinton, but the fact that there will be another debate in 8 days will act as another reset.

The next debate isn't for another 2 weeks, but if you mean the Kaine v Pence debate, then I'm not sure that qualifies as a reset in the way a presidential debate does.

[publicunofficial]

It's not the debate that affects the polls. It's the media narrative. Trump has a disaster at the debate, media shifts their focus back onto him, his poll numbers start to drop again.


One thing we've seen all election cycle: Whoever the media is covering more, is suffering in the polls for it.

[Mr. Smith]

A 2-3% shift to Clinton, but the fact that there will be another debate in 8 days will act as another reset.

The next debate isn't for another 2 weeks, but if you mean the Kaine v Pence debate, then I'm not sure that qualifies as a reset in the way a presidential debate does.

It did in 2012 when Biden ate Ryan for breakfast, no doubt that it was Biden's performance that slung Virginia and Ohio back to Obama, pity he couldn't save North Carolina.

[Virginiá]

It did in 2012 when Biden ate Ryan for breakfast, no doubt that it was Biden's performance that slung Virginia and Ohio back to Obama, pity he couldn't save North Carolina.

Ah, fair enough.

[indietraveler]

Moderate Clinton at best--I can't help but thinking Trump reached his true ceiling in the last couple weeks. If he keeps up with this type of debate performance he won't be winning.

[Maxwell]

Moderate bump - she's back up to a 4 point lead rather than a 2 point lead.

[IceSpear]

It's not the debate that affects the polls. It's the media narrative. Trump has a disaster at the debate, media shifts their focus back onto him, his poll numbers start to drop again.


One thing we've seen all election cycle: Whoever the media is covering more, is suffering in the polls for it.

Because these days media coverage is almost uniformly negative, unless you're a media darling like Obama or Rubio.

On average, she'll probably get a bump of a couple points. The country is too polarized for a huge swing, and expectations were so low for Trump that it mainly isn't seen as groundbreaking.

[Xing]

We can all speculate about how this will affect the polls, but there's no way to know for sure. Another story might dominate the news this week. I'd guess maybe a 2% bump for Hillary, and she improves in more racially diverse competitive states. I could very well be wrong, though.

[Tender Branson]

No real change (or well within the MoE).

[ProudModerate2]

Moderate shift towards Clinton (1-3%)

[heatcharger]

It did in 2012 when Biden ate Ryan for breakfast, no doubt that it was Biden's performance that slung Virginia and Ohio back to Obama, pity he couldn't save North Carolina.

The VP debate didn't really swing anything, it just more or less stopped the bleeding after that first debate. Sadly for Trump, Pence will not be doing him any favors, and Trump won't be pitching a perfect game like Obama did in that town hall debate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll be surprised if it moves the race by more than 1 or 2 points, but if it does I guess it will be toward Hillary.

[afleitch]

It depends on which polls. For those putting Clinton up by 3-4 point plus, which already have screened higher Democratic enthusiasm, you might not see any movement. The ones with the enthusiasm gap that have her lower or tied might drift a point or two to Hillary. The trackers that have Trump ahead will probably do what the f they want to.

Question is, will they converge over the next month? Or will you end up with polls grouping as Trump ahead/tie, Clinton ahead/tie, Clinton ahead by a bit and so on.

[Lyin' Steve]

Clinton 3-4%.
Reasoning:  Not only did she convince some Trump voters and undecideds to switch to her, while I don't think anyone was persuaded not to vote for her... but also it stops the three-week-long media narrative of Trumpmentum.  A week of replays of Trump's awful moments from the debates, possibly multiplied by a slew of negative stories from his poor attempts to save face afterwards (he's already putting the spotlight on Miss Piggy, the same way he did with the Khans) should decisively switch momentum back in Hillary's favor at least until the VP debate.
I expect her to be up 5 points and winning in all swing states except perhaps Iowa come next Tuesday.