1st debate TV ratings

[Mr. Morden]

Early #s show the viewership on the broadcast networks (ABC/CBS/NBC/Fox) up 23% from the first Obama-Romney debate in '12:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tv-ratings-clinton-trump-debate-932785

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/09/president_debate_ratings_how_m.html

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[Ozymandias]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

[Mr. Morden]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

So, sounds like they're saying total TV viewership was ~81 million, the same as the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.  But since there were also some people who watched it online, total viewership would be higher than the 1980 debate.

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

[Fusionmunster]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

So, sounds like they're saying total TV viewership was ~81 million, the same as the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.  But since there were also some people who watched it online, total viewership would be higher than the 1980 debate.

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

There were at least 2 million people watching the NBC youtube stream, and this number doesnt include PBS and CSPAN (I think)

[cinyc]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

So, sounds like they're saying total TV viewership was ~81 million, the same as the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.  But since there were also some people who watched it online, total viewership would be higher than the 1980 debate.

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

There were at least 2 million people watching the NBC youtube stream, and this number doesnt include PBS and CSPAN (I think)

The NBC YouTube stream doesn't count for TV ratings, and I doubt CSPAN is rated by Nielsen.  PBS might be included in the final tally when we get it around 4PM eastern, though - but I don't remember if those will be Nielsen numbers or self-reported PBS numbers.

The overnights we got this morning are always subject to revision, especially for live programs like the debate.  They usually don't take into account the pre-prime time viewership on the West Coast, when the debate aired.

[Fusionmunster]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

So, sounds like they're saying total TV viewership was ~81 million, the same as the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.  But since there were also some people who watched it online, total viewership would be higher than the 1980 debate.

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

There were at least 2 million people watching the NBC youtube stream, and this number doesnt include PBS and CSPAN (I think)

The NBC YouTube stream doesn't count for TV ratings, and I doubt CSPAN is rated by Nielsen.  PBS might be included in the final tally when we get it around 4PM eastern, though - but I don't remember if those will be Nielsen numbers or self-reported PBS numbers.

The overnights we got this morning are always subject to revision, especially for live programs like the debate.  They usually don't take into account the pre-prime time viewership on the West Coast, when the debate aired.

Im aware. Just pointing out the number is probably more than 81 million.

[cinyc]

CNN is reporting total viewership of 80.9 million before PBS.  I'm not sure if that includes time-adjusted numbers for the broadcast TV networks.

From the Hollywood Reporter:

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[Ebsy]

With CSPAN/PBS this will certainly be the most watched political debate in history.

[Sorenroy]

So how does this factor in places like bars and other public gathering sites? I know a lot of people who went out to watch the debate in public places.

[cinyc]

So how does this factor in places like bars and other public gathering sites? I know a lot of people who went out to watch the debate in public places.

Nielsen ratings don't count those people, just in-home viewership.  I don't think they ever have counted out-of-home viewership, so it's an apples-to-apples comparison.

[Sorenroy]

So how does this factor in places like bars and other public gathering sites? I know a lot of people who went out to watch the debate in public places.

Nielsen ratings don't count those people, just in-home viewership.  I don't think they ever have counted out-of-home viewership, so it's an apples-to-apples comparison.

Well, I guess that means that all events miss some number of people who go out and watch with others. That's to bad. How much higher do you guys think these numbers would be if it included that segment of people?

[Virginiá]

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

Right - The US adult population as of 2013 is 242,470,820, so 35% of that is something like 84.8 million, and I think it would be fair to say that when all viewers are taken into account, even the ones we do not have statistics for yet, the total viewers might be even higher than that.

So at least 35% of the adult population seems to me like a reasonable estimate right now. That's not really a record in terms of share of adult population. It seems, at first glance, maybe slightly above average, give or take. In terms of raw number of viewers, the final numbers are likely to be historic.

In 1980, I added up the number of people ages 15+ (I couldn't find an easy 18+ statistic for 1980), which was 175,255,466, and 80.6 million of that is roughly 46%, so, % of adult population:

2016: 35% (my rough est.)
1980: 44 - 46%^*

* 1980 viewer % includes ages 15, 16 and 17 due to statistic groups available

[Virginiá]

How much higher do you guys think these numbers would be if it included that segment of people?

That's impossible to say. There is no way to account for who was watching in such environments. Plus, think about all the homes where multiple adults were watching, which there is no feasible way to account for that, either (?)

But given the size of these ratings, and those 2 points above, it might be fair to say that a majority of the country tuned in for at least part of the debate, or at least will inevitably catch parts of it over the next week.

[Ebsy]

I was watching the PBS livestream with a group of 60 people. The College Republicans were down the hall watching a livestream with like 50 people. All the lounges in my building had dozens of people watching the debate. I think Nielsen ratings/adding up simple livestream views will miss a large segment of viewership. Very possible that actual viewership was in excess of 90 million is not 100 million, though obviously raw tv numbers will not be that high.

[cinyc]

How much higher do you guys think these numbers would be if it included that segment of people?

That's impossible to say. There is no way to account for who was watching in such environments. Plus, think about all the homes where multiple adults were watching, which there is no feasible way to account for that, either (?)

But given the size of these ratings, and those 2 points above, it might be fair to say that a majority of the country tuned in or at least will inevitably catch parts of it over the next week.

I think Nielsen can track how many people are watching in a Nielsen household.  Nielsen provides ratings for both households and individuals watching.  The universe for individual ratings in most reported results is usually Persons 2+, not adults.  Nielsen also provides sub-group ratings to networks who buy them, like Adults 18-49 (the key money demo), adults 25-54 (the key news demo), etc.

[ProudModerate2]

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LOL.
trump looked like a bumbling fool in front of millions !
Love it.

[heatcharger]

I'm of the opinion that Neilsen ratings are very inaccurate.

[Virginiá]

I think Nielsen can track how many people are watching in a Nielsen household.  Nielsen provides ratings for both households and individuals watching.

How big is their sample, though? They aren't in everyone's home. I mean how accurately can Nielsen judge how many people are watching together in homes out there from what limited number of households they are in?

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Right. I only wanted to calculate my numbers by adults because they are the ones voting in the election, so they are obviously the target of the debates.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

Right - The US adult population as of 2013 is 242,470,820, so 35% of that is something like 84.8 million, and I think it would be fair to say that when all viewers are taken into account, even the ones we do not have statistics for yet, the total viewers might be even higher than that.

So at least 35% of the adult population seems to me like a reasonable estimate right now. That's not really a record in terms of share of adult population. It seems, at first glance, maybe slightly above average, give or take. In terms of raw number of viewers, the final numbers are likely to be historic.

In 1980, I added up the number of people ages 15+ (I couldn't find an easy 18+ statistic for 1980), which was 175,255,466, and 80.6 million of that is roughly 46%, so, % of adult population:

2016: 35% (my rough est.)
1980: 44 - 46%^*

* 1980 viewer % includes ages 15, 16 and 17 due to statistic groups available

Are you accounting for the fact that it's not just the US population that includes people under 18, but some of the debate watchers are also under 18?

[cinyc]

I think Nielsen can track how many people are watching in a Nielsen household.  Nielsen provides ratings for both households and individuals watching.

How big is their sample, though? They aren't in everyone's home. I mean how accurately can Nielsen judge how many people are watching together in homes out there from what limited number of households they are in?

That's a secret.  Some sources say there were about 25,000 Nielsen Households in 2013, others say there are about 50,000.  Nielsen put out a press release saying they increased the number of Nielsen families in 2014, but didn't disclose how many total Nielsen families there were.

Statistics don't require a very large sample to get an accurate rating, though.  25,000 randomly-selected households should be representative of the TV watching universe, in theory.

[Xing]

Considering how many people watched this, if things don't move at least a bit in Clinton's favor, I think Clinton supporters panicking would then be justified.

[Virginiá]

Are you accounting for the fact that it's not just the US population that includes people under 18, but some of the debate watchers are also under 18?

Oh, that's a good point. Wouldn't that be more of the youtube views and such? Each one of those 80 million from TV/etc would be a household, right? So that would be fair to assume there is at least 1 adult watching. Well I'm sure there were lots of households with just under-age people watching, but how many I do wonder.

Obviously those percentages are only rough estimates, but I'm not sure that the number of households with only <18 people watching is that big. Or, I dunno, I could be wrong. Was really only some napkin math after all

[Mr. Morden]

Are you accounting for the fact that it's not just the US population that includes people under 18, but some of the debate watchers are also under 18?

Oh, that's a good point. Wouldn't that be more of the youtube views and such? Each one of those 80 million from TV/etc would be a household, right? So that would be fair to assume there is at least 1 adult watching. Well I'm sure there were lots of households with just under-age people watching, but how many I do wonder.

No, the 80 million is supposed to be people, not households.  I've never been in a Nielsen household (though I know people who have), but my understanding is that you're supposed to record how many people in your family are watching each program.  So if it's a family of four, and they're all watching, then that's four people.  Whether people are diligent about recording such things, I don't know.  (And if they're not, do they systematically underreport or overreport the people watching?)

In any case, while a debate audience would certainly skew old, I'm sure there were plenty of households where parents + kids would watch together.

[Virginiá]

No, the 80 million is supposed to be people, not households. 

To be fair, I only meant 'households' as in the way they determine those statistics. They mean people, but the way they count it for most of that is by household, right? For instance, for each cable customer who uses their TV to tune in to some network to watch, they count that as 1 person, even though they could have a whole family watching with them. There is really no way for the companies to know how many people are actually watching. The viewers over the internet could probably be more accurately assumed to be 1 person, but still.

Anywho, given how media is consumed, we'll probably never know how many people truly watched last night. It could be considerably higher when factoring in groups/families, no?