Competitive House Predictions: FL-18 to IA-01

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2

Predictions



Safe R: 202
Safe D: 176

Competitive D: 9
Competitive R: 8

Republicans: 210
Democrats: 185

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)

Overall: D+4

My Predictions

FL-18: Brian Mast (R)
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D)
FL-27: Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D)
IL-12: Mike Bost (R)
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth (R)
IA-01: Monica Vernon (D)

Doing this now so I don't have to tomorrow. A relevant piece of information here is that Curbelo's district has gotten slightly more Democratic. His survivability ultimately relies on how much Cubans want to split their vote between the presidential (going more for Clinton) and Senate/House (Rubio/Curbelo/Ros-Lehtinen).

Also, CO-06 is extremely close and can still be changed.

[Maxwell]

FL-18: Randy Perkins (D)
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D) (narrowly, will lose in 2018)
FL-27: IRL (R)
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D)
IL-12: Mike Bost (R)
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth (R) (sadly, but Yoder will get close)
IA-01: Monica Vernon (D)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FL-18: Randy Perkins (D)
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D) (narrowly, will lose in 2018)
FL-27: IRL (R)
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D)
IL-12: Mike Bost (R)
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth (R) (sadly, but Yoder will get close)
IA-01: Monica Vernon (D)

This.

[Heisenberg]

Went bold and voted straight Republican except for FL-18. Perkins is such a jerk (attacking Brian Mast of not having experience serving the US when he lost both legs in Afghanistan) but he has the cash advantage. Mast just came out of a bruising primary with many candidates, and there's an independent who is a former Republican getting about 5-6% of the vote. Cubans will continue to vote for Republican Senate/House candidates, I think. Dold will overperform Trump big time, and will be helped by his predecessor and ally, Mark Kirk, who will win this district. IL-12 and IN-09 will be close, but won't flip. Blum is doing well in his internals, and there hasn't been anything released to counter it (to my knowledge), and I think Grassley and Trump (and his state's R trend) will save him. But, I could be wrong.

[smoltchanov]

Much more difficult set of choices then previously. Lot of "tossup-style" races...

[Indy Texas]

Went bold and voted straight Republican except for FL-18. Perkins is such a jerk (attacking Brian Mast of not having experience serving the US when he lost both legs in Afghanistan) but he has the cash advantage. Mast just came out of a bruising primary with many candidates, and there's an independent who is a former Republican getting about 5-6% of the vote. Cubans will continue to vote for Republican Senate/House candidates, I think. Dold will overperform Trump big time, and will be helped by his predecessor and ally, Mark Kirk, who will win this district. IL-12 and IN-09 will be close, but won't flip. Blum is doing well in his internals, and there hasn't been anything released to counter it (to my knowledge), and I think Grassley and Trump (and his state's R trend) will save him. But, I could be wrong.

Didn't hurt Saxby Chambliss when he ran against a triple-amputee Vietnam vet and compared him to Saddam Hussein.

[Xing]

I'll guess that the Democrats pick up IL-10 and IA-01. FL-26 is a tough one for me to predict. Garcia is obviously not an ideal candidate, and Curbelo looks like he could be a formidable statewide candidate in the future, if he wins. If this were the same district that he won in 2014, I'm pretty sure he'd hang on without too much trouble, but the PVI is even now, so it's far less certain. I'll give the edge to Curbelo for now, but he's quite vulnerable, and Republicans should be very motivated to save him, since he could be the real deal, unlike certain overhyped, flawless, beautiful candidates.

[Torie]

Just Dold goes down.

[mencken]

Just Dold goes down.

[Vosem]

All seats are held by incumbents except Dold losing to Schneider. Blum/Vernon was far and away the hardest race of these to handicap; also, while I didn't vote for her, I think Shelli Yoder is being severely underrated and has a much better shot than many think (I think Hollingsworth is less of a favorite than, say, Curbelo might be).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Randy Perkins could win, but if there is on election such a thing as Trump Democrats, than Brian Mast can and probably will be able to capitalize on them in FL-18. He's basically Allen West but more electable as it is, but his political positions, while articulated well, basically align with the lame "constitutional conservatism" of Ted Cruz. It'll be a fun race to watch.

[Del Tachi]

Perkins, Curbelo, Ros-Lehtinen, Schneider, Bost, Hollingsworth, Vernon

[Nyvin]

I don't think FL-27, IL-12, or IN-9 are really competitive.  FL-27 would be, but IRL is just too good of an incumbent.

If Blum wins it's a sign of the Iowa electorate in general moving swiftly away from the Democrats, not really any strength Blum has.  

I think Dems pick up CO-6, IL-10, and FL-26 at least.    They're all areas that Trump will be damaging to the Republicans, and the Dem candidates there aren't all that bad either.  

[Young Conservative]

FL-18: Brian Mast (R)
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R)
FL-27: Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D)
IL-12: Mike Bost (R)
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth (R)
IA-01: Blum (R)

[Kingpoleon]

I don't think FL-27 is really competitive.  FL-27 would be, but IRL is just too good of an incumbent.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bumping due to closeness of FL-18, FL-26, and IA-01