JFK vs. Goldwater

[Ben.]

Goldwater/JFK

Landslide for JFK, but a bit less than LBJ's:

I'd agree, but I think CO, NM would be more likely to swing to Goldwater than any other western states what’s more I think that the Dakotas and Montana would have stuck with the Democrats and I doubt that Kennedy would have lost any more southern states than LBJ, so I doubt TN would have also been lost (LBJ won 55% of the vote in reality).

Kennedy would have come out from a mildly successful first term, tax cuts, facing down the USSR over Cuba, slow progress towards greater civil rights for African Americans and economic growth. Kennedy knew and respected Goldwater and would have been less likely that LBJ was to go so highly negative so while it might have been a better natured campaign than it actually was, Kennedy as a popular incumbent facing an opponent seen as extreme, and abandoned by much of his own party leadership, would have cruised to re-election…



Kennedy/ Johnson (Democrat): 475 EV, 58%PV.
Goldwater/ LeMay (Republican): 63 EV, 41%PV. 

[Lincoln Republican]

Kennedy        328     52%
Goldwater      210     48%

My vote would have been for Goldwater.

My map is being generous to Goldwater, based on my understanding Kennedy's popularity was heading down going into 1964.  That was the reason for his trip to Texas in Nov, 1963.

It's true, Kennedy would likely have won several more states against Goldwater in 1964, giving Kennedy an EV total in the high 300s, based on Kennedy's approvals going up between Nov 1963 and Nov 1964.   

[Ben.]

Kennedy        328     52%
Goldwater      210     48%

My vote would have been for Goldwater.

My map is being generous to Goldwater, based on my understanding Kennedy's popularity was heading down going into 1964.  That was the reason for his trip to Texas in Nov, 1963.

It's true, Kennedy would likely have won several more states against Goldwater in 1964, giving Kennedy an EV total in the high 300s, based on Kennedy's approvals going up between Nov 1963 and Nov 1964.   

I’m afraid your map is being more than generous to Goldwater, you seem to assuming that the political geography of the country in 1964 is the same as it is today… Goldwater would have won, then, republican heartland states such as NH, VT long before he won TN, KY or NC. As the Democratic candidate Kennedy would have done well in the upper South, mid Atlantic and the Midwest. Goldwater’s only potential areas for expansion lay in the west and potentially in holding on the bedrock GOP states in the northeast.

I see no evidence that Kennedy was unpopular going into 1964, his advisors where worried about the party’s base in the deep south and hence his visit to Texas, but by and large Kennedy was well regarded and very popular. Kennedy and Goldwater where friends from their time in the senate and a campaign between them would have been far more amicable than the campaign LBJ waged against Goldwater… but this would not have meant that most Americans would not still have rejected Goldwater who most viewed as extremist in favour of Kennedy and by a very big margin, though I’d expect not as huge as that which LBJ enjoyed.           

[Lincoln Republican]

Kennedy        328     52%
Goldwater      210     48%

My vote would have been for Goldwater.

My map is being generous to Goldwater, based on my understanding Kennedy's popularity was heading down going into 1964.  That was the reason for his trip to Texas in Nov, 1963.

It's true, Kennedy would likely have won several more states against Goldwater in 1964, giving Kennedy an EV total in the high 300s, based on Kennedy's approvals going up between Nov 1963 and Nov 1964.   

I’m afraid your map is being more than generous to Goldwater, you seem to assuming that the political geography of the country in 1964 is the same as it is today… Goldwater would have won, then, republican heartland states such as NH, VT long before he won TN, KY or NC. As the Democratic candidate Kennedy would have done well in the upper South, mid Atlantic and the Midwest. Goldwater’s only potential areas for expansion lay in the west and potentially in holding on the bedrock GOP states in the northeast.

I see no evidence that Kennedy was unpopular going into 1964, his advisors where worried about the party’s base in the deep south and hence his visit to Texas, but by and large Kennedy was well regarded and very popular. Kennedy and Goldwater where friends from their time in the senate and a campaign between them would have been far more amicable than the campaign LBJ waged against Goldwater… but this would not have meant that most Americans would not still have rejected Goldwater who most viewed as extremist in favour of Kennedy and by a very big margin, though I’d expect not as huge as that which LBJ enjoyed.           

My map is based on 1960, with switches in 1964 from GOP to Dem that I believe Kennedy could have picked up, and with switches in 1964 from Dem to GOP that I believe Goldwater could have picked up. 

But, your analysis and reasoning make much more sense than mine, and are no doubt more accurate. 

[Ben.]

Kennedy        328     52%
Goldwater      210     48%

My vote would have been for Goldwater.

My map is being generous to Goldwater, based on my understanding Kennedy's popularity was heading down going into 1964.  That was the reason for his trip to Texas in Nov, 1963.

It's true, Kennedy would likely have won several more states against Goldwater in 1964, giving Kennedy an EV total in the high 300s, based on Kennedy's approvals going up between Nov 1963 and Nov 1964.   

I’m afraid your map is being more than generous to Goldwater, you seem to assuming that the political geography of the country in 1964 is the same as it is today… Goldwater would have won, then, republican heartland states such as NH, VT long before he won TN, KY or NC. As the Democratic candidate Kennedy would have done well in the upper South, mid Atlantic and the Midwest. Goldwater’s only potential areas for expansion lay in the west and potentially in holding on the bedrock GOP states in the northeast.

I see no evidence that Kennedy was unpopular going into 1964, his advisors where worried about the party’s base in the deep south and hence his visit to Texas, but by and large Kennedy was well regarded and very popular. Kennedy and Goldwater where friends from their time in the senate and a campaign between them would have been far more amicable than the campaign LBJ waged against Goldwater… but this would not have meant that most Americans would not still have rejected Goldwater who most viewed as extremist in favour of Kennedy and by a very big margin, though I’d expect not as huge as that which LBJ enjoyed.           

My map is based on 1960, with switches in 1964 from GOP to Dem that I believe Kennedy could have picked up, and with switches in 1964 from Dem to GOP that I believe Goldwater could have picked up. 

But, your analysis and reasoning make much more sense than mine, and are no doubt more accurate. 

Fair enough, don’t worry bout it, but the huge shifts in party political allegiance that occurred from the election of Nixon in 1968 to the election of Bush senior in 1988 which where to create the modern political map of America, had not happened in 1964… while the deep south was bitter about the slow moves towards civil rights under Kennedy (hence his visit to Texas) there would not have been a full blown shift in the south from solid democrat to solid republican as you suggest… similarly had Goldwater done better he would have hung on to traditionally GOP states in the northeast (which in of its self would have been tough as a rightwing republican from the west) as well as winning other states in the south west in addition to his native Arizona.

What’s more Kennedy was darn popular in the midatlantic states and Midwest as well as in the north west and north east by early 1964 and would have easily beaten any republican candidate, though perhaps not as emphatically as LBJ did (56-58% maybe rather than the 60%+ LBJ garnered nationally in 64), his popularity, the Democratic tag and the presence of LBJ on the ticket would have all combined to produce solid wins in the upper south and very convincing wins in the southern states west of the Mississippi (60-65% of the vote in AR and TX would have been likely)… and as I have said JFK was friends with Goldwater and would have had no desire to run nearly as negative a campaign as LBJ would in reality.         

[Lincoln Republican]

Ben, your analysis is excellent.  Thank you.

Just one point though, Goldwater's running mate in 1964 was conservative Republican New York Congressman William Miller.

Curtis LeMay was George Wallace's running mate on the American Independent Party ticket in 1968.

Just one question, don't you think Goldwater would have won Utah, of all places, against Kennedy, in 1964?

[© tweed]

Goldwater would do slightly better, Kennedy still wins in a landslide.

[© tweed]

I DID vote for Barry Goldwater in 1964. JFK would have won but not by anything close to the margin LBJ won by. I would guess a popular vote breakdown around 53 - 47% give or take a point either way and Goldwater would have carried a bunch more traditional GOP states in the plains and mountain west.

Your aunt let you cast an absentee right?  I remeber you telling that story.

[Ben.]

Ben, your analysis is excellent.  Thank you.

Just one point though, Goldwater's running mate in 1964 was conservative Republican New York Congressman William Miller.

Curtis LeMay was George Wallace's running mate on the American Independent Party ticket in 1968.

Just one question, don't you think Goldwater would have won Utah, of all places, against Kennedy, in 1964?

I agree that Goldwater would have done better and indeed a number of western states where closer than the national average (just look at the county results for that year)… in terms of how Goldwater could have expanded from his disastrous showing I think the pattern would have been something like this…



Dark Blue = Core Goldwater States – 52 EV
Blue = Second Tier Possible Goldwater States - 71 EV
Light Blue = Third Tier Long Shot Goldwater States - 33EV

…the easiest area for a Goldwater lead GOP ticket to do better than it did in reality (say there is a cleaner less divisive campaign on the part of the Democrats, likely if Kennedy where the nominee) is in the western and plains states as well as making inroads into the Democratic South (now this includes states where LBJ won up to 55% of the vote)… then if you factor in longer shots, such as reclaiming the traditionally republican states of northern New England (tough job for a conservative westerner) and then further expanding into states in the south and Midwest your running into areas which, short of Kennedy’s infidelity being discovered early (and I doubt that Goldwater would have used that in a campaign), he would never have lost and in reality LBJ carried by large margins, but I’ve factored these states in, in very light blue.       

Utah is interesting in 1964 LBJ won it 55% to Goldwater’s 44%, in 1968 Nixon won it 56% to Humphries’ 37% but in 1960 Nixon had won it 64% to 44% for Kennedy… it a hard state to call it what would probably have still been a landslide for Kennedy (though as we agree somewhat smaller than that enjoyed by LBJ) it the kinda state which could have gone either way, normally I’d have said the Democrat ticket should have carried it just, but Kennedy’s Catholicism would probably hurt them in the state a little and so… yeah, guess Goldwater would probably have claimed that along with the handful of other states he would probably have carried facing Kennedy rather than LBJ.     

[Lincoln Republican]

Goldwater/JFK

Landslide for JFK, but a bit less than LBJ's:

I'd agree, but I think CO, NM would be more likely to swing to Goldwater than any other western states what’s more I think that the Dakotas and Montana would have stuck with the Democrats and I doubt that Kennedy would have lost any more southern states than LBJ, so I doubt TN would have also been lost (LBJ won 55% of the vote in reality).

Kennedy would have come out from a mildly successful first term, tax cuts, facing down the USSR over Cuba, slow progress towards greater civil rights for African Americans and economic growth. Kennedy knew and respected Goldwater and would have been less likely that LBJ was to go so highly negative so while it might have been a better natured campaign than it actually was, Kennedy as a popular incumbent facing an opponent seen as extreme, and abandoned by much of his own party leadership, would have cruised to re-election…



Kennedy/ Johnson (Democrat): 475 EV, 58%PV.
Goldwater/ LeMay (Republican): 63 EV, 41%PV. 

Using Ben's map, I would add to Goldwater, at the very least, Utah, Colorado, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma.  Still a JFK landslide, as Ben has said.  JFK was not the knight in shining armour of Camelot that some would have us believe.

[Tory]

JFK/JFK

[Michael Z]

JFK, resoundingly.

Btw, would Kennedy have kept Johnson as his running mate? I've read, more than once, that Kennedy was flirting with the idea of dropping LBJ and picking Terry Sanford for '64...

[Speed of Sound]

JFK, resoundingly.

Btw, would Kennedy have kept Johnson as his running mate? I've read, more than once, that Kennedy was flirting with the idea of dropping LBJ and picking Terry Sanford for '64...

Perhaps part pf the reson that Kennedy got assasinated?

[RBH]

Late entry