Politico/Morning Cons. Poll Clinton +3 (4 way) from Trump +1 before debates

[jaichind]

There is a link from political alluding to this

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/playbook/2016/09/obama-hillary-and-bill-clinton-to-israel-for-shimon-peres-funeral-tapper-on-what-to-expect-in-obama-town-hall-clinton-gets-small-debate-bump-new-polling-partnership-between-politico-and-morning-consult-216549

I guess more details will come later

[Gass3268]

I'll take a 4 point swing across the board.

[Fusionmunster]

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 26%
Unsure - 26%

[jaichind]

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 26%
Unsure - 26%

Given how some of the other polls had it this poll is pretty friendly to Trump in terms of debate victor.

[Fusionmunster]

41% Hillary

38% Trump

8% Johnson

4% Jill

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Way too early to measure a debate reaction. 48 hours as a minimum.

[Fusionmunster]

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 26%
Unsure - 26%

Given how some of the other polls had it this poll is pretty friendly to Trump in terms of debate victor.

Not really, its only behind YouGov and CNN for largest margin.

[JA]

This is around what I expected to see as a result of the debate. The post-debate coverage this week may move the polls a little more in favor of Clinton, but by the end of next week they should stabilize around a 2-4 point average lead for Clinton.

[Podgy the Bear]

And we have the "Miss Piggy" issue yet to play out.

[Person Man]

This must seem like  a very fu cked time to be an unmarried woman.

[Wiz in Wis]

The internals here are very interesting... worth digging into.

Here are some terms people have used to describe the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on Monday, September 26.
Do you think each of the following terms describes the debate well, or not?
Helped me make up my mind

Voters by PID: %Yes

Dems 47%
Ind 30%
GOP 30%

Voters by Age: %Yes

18-29 49%
30-44 38%
45-54 38%
55-64 33%
65+ 32%
 

[Gass3268]

Harry Enten from 538 said if a 4 point Clinton swing is uniform across the board it would be the 2nd biggest debate swing since consistent debates started in 1976.

[Wiz in Wis]

Harry Enten from 538 said if a 4 point Clinton swing is uniform across the board it would be the 2nd biggest debate swing since consistent debates started in 1976.

I'm actually a bit tired of the 538 team freaking out at every new poll. I mean, yeah, it's a great result, but lets look for more data before making these statements please. So far no movement in LA Times/USC Dornsife, not that I expect much with that poll, but still... we need at least 3 more days or so to fully understand the impact of the debate, if any.

[riceowl]

Why do none of these things add up to 100%? 107% of party ID, 101% of "who won?"...

[mark_twain]

This poll was conducted from 9/26 to 9/27, which means it only partially covers the effect of the debate on public opinion.

Nevertheless, this poll's results are +4 for Clinton, when compared to the previous poll from this organization (Clinton +3 versus Trump +1), a good sign for Clinton.

Considering that this only partially covers the debate swing, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual swing is actually more than +4 for Clinton.
 

[Absolution9]

Why do none of these things add up to 100%? 107% of party ID, 101% of "who won?"...

The "who won" is probably a rounding issue, the Party ID question referenced above only has to add up to 100% within each category.

[Wiz in Wis]

Why do none of these things add up to 100%? 107% of party ID, 101% of "who won?"...

The "who won" is probably a rounding issue, the Party ID question referenced above only has to add up to 100% within each category.

What he/she said

[Ozymandias]

This poll was conducted from 9/26 to 9/27, which means it only partially covers the effect of the debate on public opinion.

Actually it's entirely post-debate-- they didn't go into the field on 9/26 until after the debate:

Jeff Cartwright ‏@JeffSCartwright  9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC
@Nate_Cohn We went into the field 30 minutes after the debate ended on Monday -- so field date started Sept. 26.

[Lief 🗽]

This poll was conducted from 9/26 to 9/27, which means it only partially covers the effect of the debate on public opinion.

Actually it's entirely post-debate-- they didn't go into the field on 9/26 until after the debate:

Jeff Cartwright ‏@JeffSCartwright  9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC
@Nate_Cohn We went into the field 30 minutes after the debate ended on Monday -- so field date started Sept. 26.

Yeah but it takes a few days for people to fully react to the debate and the ensuing media coverage.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The bounce has arrived.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's almost like margin of error isn't a thing to some people. There is probably a bounce, but geez. (538 should be ashamed.)

[Virginiá]

we need at least 3 more days or so to fully understand the impact of the debate, if any.

At least. Seems like the Machado story is still vigorously making the rounds as well. Trump already had to open his big yap again yesterday morning, but this could end up getting even longer legs if he can't shut up about it. I'm skeptical though. Kellyanne probably confiscated his phones/twitter account already.

I really wouldn't be surprised if she got a large (across more polls), perhaps even lasting bump from this. It wasn't just a "bad" debate. It was awful, and he offended a lot of people, and then rubbed it in the next day. Clinton couldn't have asked for a better debate/reaction.

[afleitch]

Again there are three sets of polls over the past few weeks

Those who put Trump ahead and have generally consistently done so (some of the tracker polls) and those that occassionaly spit out a Trump lead drifting towards a tie or a Clinton +1

Companies who have Clinton usually up around 2, sometimes less, sometimes more

Those who tend to think Clinton is probably up more than 3 or 4 points.

These polls really should start to converge, or conversely (and controversially) 'herd' towards a result.

[psychprofessor]

the trend in this poll is clear, but this poll is absurd to begin with...clinton at only 45% with latinos...trash

[PresidentSamTilden]

Promising stuff. Let's see how the polls play out for the rest of the week.