Echelon Insights Post-Debate Poll: Clinton+5

[Ozymandias]

Will update with link when available, but for now a tweet via Patrick Ruffini (Republican #NeverTrump-er):

Echelon ‏@EchelonInsights  3m3 minutes ago
Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

Clinton 47
Trump 42

Clinton 44
Trump 39
Johnson 6
Stein 2
McMullin 1

1,529 LVs (Internet)

EDITED: To reflect correction noted by HillOfANight below

And here are the links...

TOPLINES: http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/post_debate_survey_toplines.pdf

CROSSTABS: http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Final-tabs.pdf

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html

NYT's Upshot trusted Patrick/Echelon with their data. BTW, they just corrected the third party #s.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[F_S_USATN]

Who won the debate?

RVs

Clinton 48
Trump 22


Watched entire debate (Clinton led this group by 10)

Clinton 58
Trump 26

[Devout Centrist]

Rip Johnson, gone and forgotten

[F_S_USATN]

Top issues of the debate:

Trump's taxes 38
ISIS 37
Trade deals 35
Immigration 30
Clinton email 28
Inner city crime 23


Clinton

More likely 41
Less likely 27

Trump

More likely 29
Less likely 29

[Ozymandias]

Echelon ‏@EchelonInsights  1m1 minute ago
More likely to vote for Clinton/Trump as a result of debate

Clinton

More likely 41
Less likely 27

Trump

More likely 29
Less likely 29

[Absolution9]

Have they polled the Clinton-Trump race before or is this their first?

[RJEvans]

Have they polled the Clinton-Trump race before or is this their first?

I read they did one in July and found Clinton +1.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Wowie!  HIGHLY RESPECTED pollster confirms +4 booster fo' dat Hilldawg.

[bilaps]

Wowie!  HIGHLY RESPECTED pollster confirms +4 booster fo' dat Hilldawg.

Nonsense

[pbrower2a]

Clinton up 5 at this stage? Trump is not quite done, but I can't imagine anything that he can do to win. Up 5 is bigger than the  3.86% margin by which Obama won in 2012. Four years ago I thought Barack Obama had about a 93% chance of winning re-election on the assumption that Colorado and Nevada together, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia were each 50-50 propositions.

[elcorazon]

Clinton up 5 at this stage? Trump is not quite done, but I can't imagine anything that he can do to win. Up 5 is bigger than the  3.86% margin by which Obama won in 2012. Four years ago I thought Barack Obama had about a 93% chance of winning re-election on the assumption that Colorado and Nevada together, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia were each 50-50 propositions.

jeez. we don't even know if she's up 5 yet. Maybe wait for more polls, then wait for the next set of polls to confirm that any bump from the debate doesn't fade. Then wait at least until the next couple of debates. Voters can be fickle.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Wowie!  HIGHLY RESPECTED pollster confirms +4 booster fo' dat Hilldawg.

Nonsense

I think the only nonsense in this race is Trumpy's rumblin' bumblin' rants.. 

GREAT POLL!

[psychprofessor]

and this is a republican internet poll...imagine what the live, english/spanish polls are looking like right now

[GeorgiaModerate]

and this is a republican internet poll...imagine what the live, english/spanish polls are looking like right now

It's never a sound idea to enumerate your poultry before it emerges.

[KingSweden]

and this is a republican internet poll...imagine what the live, english/spanish polls are looking like right now

It's never a sound idea to enumerate your poultry before it emerges.

Yeah, we've had two polls from non-gold standard pollsters. Lets pump our brakes...

[BlueSwan]

I want to see some solid state polls for Clinton before I start breathing regularly again. She was also having a few good national polls last week.

[PollsDontLie]

and this is a republican internet poll...imagine what the live, english/spanish polls are looking like right now

It's never a sound idea to enumerate your poultry before it emerges.

Yeah, we've had two polls from non-gold standard pollsters. Lets pump our brakes...

Three polls.  The third (Gravis) had Clinton losing ground.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Amazing Poll!!!! Hillary Domination!!!!

[Seriously?]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

[Maxwell]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

I don't believe this poll, but D+7 sample is not a disqualifier. It's off maybe, what, one or two from what it was last election? Early voting seems to show there isn't much real change in that regard.

[psychprofessor]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

partisan ID is not weighted...probably after the debate more people identified as D's because Donald sh** the bed. This will probably increase as he over-corrects in the second debate during the town hall and blames Hillary for Bill's infidelities.

[Seriously?]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

partisan ID is not weighted...probably after the debate more people identified as D's because Donald sh** the bed. This will probably increase as he over-corrects in the second debate during the town hall and blames Hillary for Bill's infidelities.

Missing the point.. as always... You can group these polls predictably by partisan ID.  Those in this range were getting figures in the D+5, D+6 range last week. It will end up being an unremarkable shift if this pattern continues.

[Dr. Arch]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

partisan ID is not weighted...probably after the debate more people identified as D's because Donald sh** the bed. This will probably increase as he over-corrects in the second debate during the town hall and blames Hillary for Bill's infidelities.

Missing the point.. as always... You can group these polls predictably by partisan ID.  Those in this range were getting figures in the D+5, D+6 range last week. It will end up being an unremarkable shift if this pattern continues.

What are you talking about? This is a data point

[psychprofessor]

I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.

This is a D+7 sample.

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.

You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.

partisan ID is not weighted...probably after the debate more people identified as D's because Donald sh** the bed. This will probably increase as he over-corrects in the second debate during the town hall and blames Hillary for Bill's infidelities.

Missing the point.. as always... You can group these polls predictably by partisan ID.  Those in this range were getting figures in the D+5, D+6 range last week. It will end up being an unremarkable shift if this pattern continues.

You don't group polls by partisan weight...missing the point as always. I'll send you a link to an article for how to interpret polls