I love the collective Big "O" from the red hacks on this board from a poll from an unproven source with zero track record this year and no basis to compare their results against.
This is a D+7 sample.
I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, red hacks. The other polls with the same assumptions/methodologies were in the D+5, D+6 range last week.
You are setting yourselves up for big disappointment if you think that debates, generally, and this debate, specifically, moved the needle very much.
partisan ID is not weighted...probably after the debate more people identified as D's because Donald sh** the bed. This will probably increase as he over-corrects in the second debate during the town hall and blames Hillary for Bill's infidelities.
You don't group polls by partisan weight...missing the point as always. I'll send you a link to an article for how to interpret polls
Of course you don't. Everything is Hillary! so it's all good to you. Party with the NYT folks that love everything Hillary! and would NEVER engage in advocacy journalism. *coughs* regurgitating DNC talking points daily. *cough*
Look at the D+7, D+8 polls and tell me the result from last week. All of those polls were in the Hillary +6 range.
Alternatively, look at those that had the election at D+3 or D+4. They were basically in the tied range.
It's not rocket science to figure that out when 90% of Republicans are smart enough to vote for Trump and 90% of all Democrats are stupid enough to vote for Crooked Hillary. Undecideds are generally split, slightly favoring Trump in most polls.
It's basic math.
You got a D+7 poll here, with the typical D+7 special sauce that these pollsters use to reweigh, but not reweigh party ID (of course), so you ended up with a H+5 result. Not exactly shocking here.
And don't give me this BS that these pollsters aren't adjusting for Party ID. Some are, but use very tricky language in their methodology to pretend they are not. *coughs* Survey Monkey shilling for NBC *coughs*
*coughs* Marist admitting it. *coughs*
Others know to play with the other balancing numbers based on the 2012 election to get to the desired result.
Time will tell who is right methodologically.
But to my point Hillary leading by 5 with a D+7 sample is hardly shocking, earth shattering or indicative of any monumental shift toward Hillary!
It's one thing if you had a baseline for this poll to compare apples to apples. You don't. There's no recent prior history with this pollster. There's no 538 rating. Their only other poll was taken right after the RNC.
As such, you can't make any conclusions that there was a change to the electorate to show any real momentum either way.
