Yukon election, 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The government will announce a date in October. I admit I mainly made this thread because I really wanted to draw attention to the last poll (back in February) with what must be the junk poll to end all junk polls:

Yukon Party (incumbent): 6
NDP: 11
Liberals: 22
Undecided: 61

amazing.

Anyway, Yukon's economy is not doing well due to the commodity collapse, so there might be some anti-incumbency against an incumbent party that has been floundering in various legal disputes lately. Yukon Party seem to be half-heartedly scaremongering about a carbon tax as their main strategy. The other two parties have ramped out platitudes.

[Ebsy]

Canadian provincial/territory elections almost never seem to be boring.

[IceAgeComing]

Honestly 60+% of Canadian voters going into every election undecided is actually a good way of explaining all of the huge shifts that you always seem to see in every election.  That poll is possibly the dumbest I've ever seen though - at least they didn't try to remove the don't knows and report a three-party figure!

[Hatman 🍁]

Of note, the Liberals won every single election day poll (precinct) in the Territory in the federal election, and only lost three (and tied another) of the advance polls. If the territorial election is anything like the federal race, it's going to be a landslide.

I don't pretend to know much about Yukon politics, but incumbency is usually very strong up there and polls are generally useless.

[lilTommy]

The government will announce a date in October. I admit I mainly made this thread because I really wanted to draw attention to the last poll (back in February) with what must be the junk poll to end all junk polls:

Yukon Party (incumbent): 6
NDP: 11
Liberals: 22
Undecided: 61

amazing.

Anyway, Yukon's economy is not doing well due to the commodity collapse, so there might be some anti-incumbency against an incumbent party that has been floundering in various legal disputes lately. Yukon Party seem to be half-heartedly scaremongering about a carbon tax as their main strategy. The other two parties have ramped out platitudes.

Since there are only 19 seats, CBC has a list of the Candidates already:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-election-candidates-list-2016-1.3707647

It's been since Feb since there was a poll, the Liberal federal election win was still pretty fresh, so I think we can factor in some federal Liberal honeymoon influence on this poll.
We'd need a new poll to really see what's the current, but it is looking more like a Liberal-NDP match up. Liberals have some disadvantage with only 1 MLA vs the NDPs 6 but in Territory elections anything can happen.

Some notables:
Pelly-Nisutlin - Elvis Presley is running as an Indie
Porter Creek Centre - former Speaker David Laxton who left the YP and is an Indie now (sounds like a pretty bitter split) might run again as an Indie which will split that right vote.
Vuntut Gwitchin - Looks like the NDP is at risk, again like 2011, of not running a candidate. This would be unfortunate since the NDP has a long history here. Held the riding from 1985-1992 then 1996-2006.

[DC Al Fine]

I agree with Hatman. These things are more like a small town city council election than a normal provincial one.

[adma]

Canadian provincial/territory elections almost never seem to be boring.

Maybe semi-boring in NWT + Nunavut due to the lack of party affiliation--at least to outsiders...

[MaxQue]

I agree with Hatman. These things are more like a small town city council election than a normal provincial one.

It also has the population of one.

[Hatman 🍁]

C'mon guys. The Yukon has the population of a small city. (at least by Canadian standards)

[lilTommy]

Basically, the Yukon is the size of Penticton BC (37,000 and change) and Whitehorse itself is the size of Brockville ON (23,000 and change)
The 8 non-Whitehorse seats cover about 14-15,000 people

[136or142]

It's just 'Yukon', not 'the Yukon' or 'The Yukon.'

[Hatman 🍁]

It's just 'Yukon', not 'the Yukon' or 'The Yukon.'

"the Yukon" is perfectly acceptable, especially for us southerners.

[136or142]

It's just 'Yukon', not 'the Yukon' or 'The Yukon.'

"the Yukon" is perfectly acceptable, especially for us southerners.

OK, you the southerner.

It was the Tony Penikett NDP government in Yukon that had the name officially changed from 'The Yukon' to 'Yukon'.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's just 'Yukon', not 'the Yukon' or 'The Yukon.'

"the Yukon" is perfectly acceptable, especially for us southerners.

OK, you the southerner.

It was the Tony Penikett NDP government in Yukon that had the name officially changed from 'The Yukon' to 'Yukon'.

Meh. You can try all you want to change the vernacular, but I still say "the Yukon" just like I say "Ivor Coast", "East Timor" and "Cape Verde".

[136or142]

It's just 'Yukon', not 'the Yukon' or 'The Yukon.'

"the Yukon" is perfectly acceptable, especially for us southerners.

OK, you the southerner.

It was the Tony Penikett NDP government in Yukon that had the name officially changed from 'The Yukon' to 'Yukon'.

Meh. You can try all you want to change the vernacular, but I still say "the Yukon" just like I say "Ivor Coast", "East Timor" and "Cape Verde".

Ivor Coast?  You mean Ivory Coast or did Ivory Coast become something else?

I suppose I should look this up:  I can't find any reference to Ivor Coast, however maybe there used to be.

Edit: Oh I guess you mean it's now referred to Cote D'Ivore.  I thought that was only mainly for French speakers.

[Hatman 🍁]

har, har. I meant Ivory Coast of course. Officially it is "Côte d'Ivoire" in English.

[136or142]

har, har. I meant Ivory Coast of course. Officially it is "Côte d'Ivoire" in English.

No, har har.  I was genuinely curious at first, then when I figured it out I decided to add that in but not otherwise edit the post. 

I was not aware it is officially the French name in English. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Date has been set for November 7th.

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-windeyer-1.3803561
CBC Pod cast on the Yukon Election:

Yukon Party - Strong base, not necessarily the underdogs. A personal opposition to Pasloski himself.
NDP - Strong incumbents and base, well liked, smart leader, runnign a decidedly left-wing plan.
Liberals - Very centrist this year, well liked leader as well

Major issue(s) YP opposes Carbon Pricing, wants to focus on it; Environment and Economy, First Nations relations will be major issues. Were does the anti-YP vote go? NDP more a factor here then the Federal election.

[136or142]

Vuntut Gwitchin - Looks like the NDP is at risk, again like 2011, of not running a candidate. This would be unfortunate since the NDP has a long history here. Held the riding from 1985-1992 then 1996-2006.

Vuntut Gwitchin has by far the smallest population of any riding.  In 2011, just 145 people voted in this riding, so with a voter base that small, it's not a surprise no individual is interested in running for the party, even if the NDP is in a good position to win this riding.

The NDP has appointed a parachute candidate, Skeeter Wright, to run here.  He was the NDP nominee in Copperbelt North in 2011 and lost the nomination in Mountainview this time around.

I hope Wright doesn't split the vote with the Liberals and allow Yukon Party party switching candidate Darius Elias to get reelected.

Pauline Frost is the Liberal nominee in Vuntut Gwitchin.  
http://www.ylp.ca/pauline_frost

[136or142]

The deadline for candidates to declare has passed and neither former Speaker David Laxton nor, it seems, independent Elvis Presley is running.

The only independent mentioned in this story is Viktor Kisoun in Watson Lake. 
http://www.whitehorsestar.com/News/laxton-opts-not-to-run

Viktor Kisoun was defeated running for the Federal NDP nomination in Yukon for the 2015 election.
http://whitehorsestar.com/News/local-man-pursues-ndp-nomination

[MaxQue]

The deadline for candidates to declare has passed and neither former Speaker David Laxton nor, it seems, independent Elvis Presley is running.

The only independent mentioned in this story is Viktor Kisoun in Watson Lake.  
http://www.whitehorsestar.com/News/laxton-opts-not-to-run

Viktor Kisoun was defeated running for the Federal NDP nomination in Yukon for the 2015 election.
http://whitehorsestar.com/News/local-man-pursues-ndp-nomination

According to the official list of candidates, every riding is a YP-Lib-NDP race, but:

Greens in Copperbelt South, Lake Laberge, Pelly-Nisutlin, Porter Creek North and Riverdale North + an Independent in Watson Lake.

Only two retirements, disgracied former Speaker David Laxton in Porter Creek Centre, and YP Community Services minister, Currie Dixon, in Copperbelt North (he is only aged 31).

Two YP incumbents are changing seats, the YP Education minister Doug Graham leaves Porter Creek North to run against the NDP leader in Whitehorse Centre (after announcing he would retire) and YP Energy, Mines, Ressources, Highways and Public Works minister Scott Kent leaves Riverdale North to run against an NDP incumbent (and minister 1996-2000) in Copperbelt South, which won by 3 votes last time.

[136or142]

The deadline for candidates to declare has passed and neither former Speaker David Laxton nor, it seems, independent Elvis Presley is running.

The only independent mentioned in this story is Viktor Kisoun in Watson Lake. 
http://www.whitehorsestar.com/News/laxton-opts-not-to-run

Viktor Kisoun was defeated running for the Federal NDP nomination in Yukon for the 2015 election.
http://whitehorsestar.com/News/local-man-pursues-ndp-nomination

According to the official list of candidates, every riding is a YP-Lib-NDP race, but:

Greens in Copperbelt South, Lake Laberge, Pelly-Nisutlin, Porter Creek North and Riverdale North + an Independent in Watson Lake.

Elvis has left the Territory (election)!

[lilTommy]

Vuntut Gwitchin - Looks like the NDP is at risk, again like 2011, of not running a candidate. This would be unfortunate since the NDP has a long history here. Held the riding from 1985-1992 then 1996-2006.

Vuntut Gwitchin has by far the smallest population of any riding.  In 2011, just 145 people voted in this riding, so with a voter base that small, it's not a surprise no individual is interested in running for the party, even if the NDP is in a good position to win this riding.

The NDP has appointed a parachute candidate, Skeeter Wright, to run here.  He was the NDP nominee in Copperbelt North in 2011 and lost the nomination in Mountainview this time around.

I hope Wright doesn't split the vote with the Liberals and allow Yukon Party party switching candidate Darius Elias to get reelected.

Pauline Frost is the Liberal nominee in Vuntut Gwitchin.  
http://www.ylp.ca/pauline_frost

At least the NDP managed to get their act together here, unlike in 2011 when they couldn't even get a parachute candidate.
Huh, so the sitting Liberal is now the YP candidate, very Yukon of him. This might actually split the Liberal vote more; Elias was elected as a Liberal and is still the incumbent, there are those who are candidate voters so the Liberal vote will take a hit based on that alone. With the NDP in the field this election, unlike 2011, they wil be a spoiler for someone, either the YLP or Elias.

[136or142]

Poll: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-election-poll-datapath-systems-1.3830239
http://datapathsystems.net/
Check on 2016 press releases for details.

Liberal: 34%
Yukon:34%
NDP: 29%


There is also a poll commissioned by the Yukon Liberal party that shows them with a 12% lead over the Yukon Party.