What is your prediction for the Senate Races this year
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  What is your prediction for the Senate Races this year
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Author Topic: What is your prediction for the Senate Races this year  (Read 1065 times)
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Computer89
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« on: September 28, 2016, 02:04:41 PM »
« edited: September 28, 2016, 02:08:52 PM by Moderate Hero »

I say Dems will hold

Washington
Oregon
California
Colorado
New York
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont
Connecticut

I think GOP will hold
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Utah


I think Dems will gain
Illinois
Indiana
Wisconsin

the Tossups are

Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Nevada


so right now i have the Senate has 48 Democratic 49  Republican and 3 Tossups

and I would predict two of the tossups go to the Dems making the Senate 50-50
 




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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2016, 02:12:42 PM »

I have it at 48-48 with NV/NC/NH/PA as Toss-Ups.
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BL53931
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2016, 02:14:57 PM »

My gut tells me that Dems could pick up MO and NC. The later could be less likely due to the turmoil there currently.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2016, 02:22:07 PM »

Right now, I'm guessing that Democrats pick up IL, WI, NH, PA, and IN (narrowly). Republican juggernaut Joe Heck will ride Trump's Casinoresortmachinecoattails™ and win with over 90% of the vote against Catherine Goodman Berkley. IN, NH, PA, NC, MO, FL, and (maybe) AZ aren't certain.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2016, 02:39:33 PM »

Gonna be bold: Democrats pick up NH and WI and at least one seat in a McCain state. Republicans barely win in Nevada and Illinois. D+2.

lol k.

you do realize the incumbent polls regularly at 35-36% in a state where undecideds are going to be overwhelmingly Democrat, right?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2016, 02:44:49 PM »

Gonna be bold: Democrats pick up NH and WI and at least one seat in a McCain state. Republicans barely win in Nevada and Illinois. D+2.
McCain state? That leaves only Missouri (and he probably only won it because of Nader). Indiana and North Carolina are other possibilities (the two Obama 08/Romeny states).
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2016, 04:08:29 PM »

Gonna be bold: Democrats pick up NH and WI and at least one seat in a McCain state. Republicans barely win in Nevada and Illinois. D+2.
McCain state? That leaves only Missouri (and he probably only won it because of Nader). Indiana and North Carolina are other possibilities (the two Obama 08/Romeny states).

Missouri or Louisiana, yes. I think the Democrats could easily win one of these, if not both.
LOL I forgot about Louisiana for a second even as I started a thread about the other poll. That race worries me, as does North Carolina. I do however see Young hitching onto Mike Pence and winning by a hair.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2016, 04:22:45 PM »

I don't think this is really a bold prediction at all:

Democrats pick up:

WI, IL, IN, NH, PA, and NC or MO

52-48 Democrats win back control of the Senate.

Of course, I still have hope that Rubio can be unseated.
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Higgs
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2016, 04:24:20 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 04:27:34 PM by Higgs »

Dems pickup WI, IL, NH, PA, and IN.

Reps pickup NV.

Senate is 50 R 50 D.

Could see PA, NV, IN, or NH go the other way though, it's a tough call.

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2016, 04:28:44 PM »

Gonna be bold: Democrats pick up NH and WI and at least one seat in a McCain state. Republicans barely win in Nevada and Illinois. D+2.

lol k.

you do realize the incumbent polls regularly at 35-36% in a state where undecideds are going to be overwhelmingly Democrat, right?

While this is true, it's also true that if Duckworth is as inevitable as we've all been led to believe, she shouldn't be stuck in the low 40s. I don't think Kirk will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is within 5%.
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windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2016, 06:15:06 PM »

D+7-8
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mencken
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2016, 12:22:10 PM »

All incumbents not mentioned are assumed to be re-elected:

Most likely will be re-elected
Missouri
North Carolina

I think will probably be re-elected
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire

An upset will probably happen in at least one of these
Illinois
Wisconsin
Colorado

Probably switches to the other party
Nevada
Indiana
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2016, 03:28:19 PM »

Keep on dreaming.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2016, 03:33:28 PM »


Democrats pick up:

WI, IL, IN, NH, PA, and NC or MO

Which one of these races will Democrats most definitely lose? I'd love to hear this.
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2016, 03:55:58 PM »

The Dems will gain two seats. That is all.
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SWE
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2016, 04:30:19 PM »

Huh? Even if you disagree with it, that's not a particularly bold prediction.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2016, 05:04:18 PM »

The Dems will gain two seats. That is all.

If that actually happens, Democrats will probably never control either House of Congress again in my lifetime. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2016, 05:47:00 PM »

From most Democratic to most Republican:

California, Louisiana (if it's D vs. D)
New York
Hawaii
Vermont
Maryland
Connecticut
Oregon
Washington
Colorado
Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Nevada
North Carolina

Missouri
Florida
Louisiana (in terms of overall chances)
Arizona
Ohio
Iowa
Georgia
Louisiana (if it's D vs. R)
Alaska
Kentucky
Arkansas
Kansas
South Carolina
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alabama
Idaho
Utah
Louisiana (if it's R vs. R)
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2016, 06:01:23 PM »

The Dems will gain two seats. That is all.

If that actually happens, Democrats will probably never control either House of Congress again in my lifetime.  

That is a very, very long time (assuming you are of average age on this forum). Politics is far more dynamic than that. Heck, the parties may be in the process of realigning as we speak.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2016, 06:21:28 PM »

If Obama's approval rating stays in the +5 range like it is now, the Dems could have a very good election.     I still think +7 seats is doable.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2016, 06:43:35 PM »

Democrats will gain Illinois and Wisconsin, but lose Nevada. Unfortunately, Clinton will face an extremely hostile congress.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2016, 03:52:17 PM »

Democrats gain: Wisconsin(55-42-3), Illinois(51-47-2), New Hampshire (51-49).
Republicans do not gain any seats. 
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