WA/NE-Emerson (pre-debate): Clinton +6 in WA, Trump +27 in NE

[MT Treasurer]

Washington
44% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
6% Johnson (L)
5% Stein (G)

Nebraska
56% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
7% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

Trump leads 49% to 40% in NE-02.

Link.

[Xing]

Junkity junkity junk junk junk.

[heatcharger]

LOL Emerson. Of course, dopey Nate Silver will add these to his model and give them a big weighting because there haven't been many WA and NE polls.

[elcorazon]

both bad for Hillary

[KingSweden]

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

[Gass3268]

Oh nice, NE-02 is going to be really close (other polls have shown that Clinton does 10-15 points better with cell phone samples).

[EpicHistory]

As cool as #BattlegroundWashington would be, I don't trust that number. Nebraska seems about right though.

[NOVA Green]

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Conducted before the debate, so throw it out. WA still Safe D.

[KingSweden]

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can.

Hahaha!

So Keystone Ice, basically?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

both bad for Hillary

If it weren't Emerson, I'd agree

[Person Man]

Rhode Island, Washington, Arkansas, and Texas aren't ripe for picking.

[Wiz in Wis]

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

[Ebowed]

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

[GeorgiaModerate]

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

Split the difference and I think you'd be close (+16.5) in both!

[KingSweden]

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

This too

[NOVA Green]

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

I would also imagine that in "Safe D" places like Washington state, there will be greater defection to 3rd party candidates, that come more heavily from the Obama coalition than the Romney coalition.

I still find it hard to believe that Stein will outperform Nader's 2000 4.1% vote share in Washington State.

[/]

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

Split the difference and I think you'd be close (+16.5) in both!

This.

[Alcon]

The Washington Senate result is 48-41 Murary.  The primary was about 59-36, so...no.

[Xing]

More like Clinton +27 in WA and Trump +6 in NE!

Split the difference and I think you'd be close (+16.5) in both!

This.

That would be more believable. Not to get into professional unskewing, but if we apply the same shift to NE-02, then it would be Clinton+1.5

[Ebsy]

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The realignment

Washington decides whether it's a Trump win or a hung EC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The realignment

Washington decides whether it's a Trump win or a hung EC.

[cinyc]

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.

Doubtful.  If Emerson were fabricating their numbers, they'd be herding their polls with other pollsters and conventional wisdom, instead of producing what seem to be outliers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am increasingly convinced Emerson is just fabricating their numbers.

Doubtful.  If Emerson were fabricating their numbers, they'd be herding their polls with other pollsters and conventional wisdom, instead of producing what seem to be outliers.

I agree.  The problem with Emerson is that they're landline only, which no longer provides a realistic sample of the electorate.