Bloomberg's Arthimetic on Voters in swing states

[Nyvin]

I've been finding these interesting,  I don't know if they were posted anywhere else though.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/special-reports/battlegrounds-2016

Some of them are kind of eye opening, like I didn't realize how small the Republican "voter base" is in Michigan, especially considering they hold so many state offices.



Also New Hampshire, apparently, has quite a large Republican base,  and it seems the primary focus here is GOTV efforts more than persuasion.  Ohio is the exact opposite,  neither party has a large enough base to ensure victory, so both sides need to focus heavily on the swing voters.





I guess North Carolina was a bit surprising too,  and maybe hard to believe.

I'll be Interested to see places like Florida, Virginia, and Colorado get done in the coming weeks.    Is this the kind of things the campaigns focus on mostly?   They probably have way more exact data to work with then anything we'll see.

[ursulahx]

I wonder if this is similar to the data Plouffe has, which is making him predict a 100% certainty Clinton win?

[HillOfANight]

The math, assuming it's accurate, looks good in Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, assuming the GOTV works.

[Nyvin]

It really seems like the primary way for the Republicans to win is to convert previously Democratic voters over to Trump,  winning over the swing voters really doesn't seem like enough in a lot of places.

[Santander]

It really seems like the primary way for the Republicans to win is to convert previously Democratic voters over to Trump,  winning over the swing voters really doesn't seem like enough in a lot of places.

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[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It really seems like the primary way for the Republicans to win is to convert previously Democratic voters over to Trump,  winning over the swing voters really doesn't seem like enough in a lot of places.

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