Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5

[TC 25]

Trump is making this closer.  His chances are improving in Florida and NC.  Not enough yet to win the election, but the talk of landslide is being put to rest.

[Ebsy]

Trump is making this closer.  His chances are improving in Florida and NC.  Not enough yet to win the election, but the talk of landslide is being put to rest.

Nope.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Trump is making this closer.  His chances are improving in Florida and NC.  Not enough yet to win the election, but the talk of landslide is being put to rest.

Goalposts officially moving in TrumpTown.  Tremendous.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

Yeah, it has tightened a bit. All I hope is that it's not indicative of the trend from now to Nov 8.

[Alcon]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

We have evidence in aggregate that the polls have probably moved from around Clinton +6.5-7.0 to around Clinton +6.0-6.5.  The chance that it's entirely noise is non-negligible.  It's likely it's tightening, but I think there are periods where just eyeballing the polls -- instead of adjusting from when they're released, how big they are, etc. -- can give illusory or exaggerated signals.  I think this is one of those times.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

We have evidence in aggregate that the polls have probably moved from around Clinton +6.5-7.0 to around Clinton +6.0-6.5.  The chance that it's entirely noise is non-negligible.  It's likely it's tightening, but I think there are periods where just eyeballing the polls -- instead of adjusting from when they're released, how big they are, etc. -- can give illusory or exaggerated signals.  I think this is one of those times.

I think a big part of it is that many of us were misled by a few polls to expect a Hillary win by 8-10 points. At this stage, anything below that feels disappointing.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

We have evidence in aggregate that the polls have probably moved from around Clinton +6.5-7.0 to around Clinton +6.0-6.5.  The chance that it's entirely noise is non-negligible.  It's likely it's tightening, but I think there are periods where just eyeballing the polls -- instead of adjusting from when they're released, how big they are, etc. -- can give illusory or exaggerated signals.  I think this is one of those times.

I think a big part of it is that many of us were misled by a few polls to expect a Hillary win by 8-10 points. At this stage, anything below that feels disappointing.

That's exactly where I have it, 8-10 pts.  Lucky Pickle Polling is not going to change that with a tracker that swings 8pts in 3 days for virtually no reason.

[cinyc]

10/24-10/26: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 39% (-)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (+1)
Undecided 10% (-)

[cinyc]

10/25-10/27: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 40% (+1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (+1)
Undecided 8% (-2)

[cinyc]

10/26-10/28: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 40% (-)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (-)
Undecided 8% (-)

10/27-10/29: Clinton +1
Clinton 42% (-1)
Trump 41% (+1)
Johnson 5% (-1)
Stein 3% (-)
Undecided 9% (+1)

10/28-10/30: Clinton +1
Clinton 42% (-)
Trump 41% (-)
Johnson 5% (-)
Stein 2% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)

[TC 25]

More evidence of a Trump surge.

[jaichind]

Undecided went up.  Most likely Shy Clinton supporters.  I still read this poll as Clinton +2 or +3.

[cinyc]

10/29-10/31: Clinton +2
Clinton 42% (-)
Trump 40% (-1)
Johnson 5% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10%? (-)

[Person Man]

10/29-10/31: Clinton +2
Clinton 42% (-)
Trump 40% (-1)
Johnson 5% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10%? (-)

First not bad news in a while. Maybe the race is stabilizing?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

[cinyc]

10/30-11/1: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 40% (-)
Johnson 6% (+1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9%? (-1)

[BundouYMB]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Goodbye GOP narrative. Hello Clinton mid-single-digit leads.

[cinyc]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

IVR landline-only polling has many faults, but opt-in Internet polling, like Lucid's methodology, is so unproven that they can't even generate a margin of error.   Both methods are terrible.  The only question is which is worse.  I guess we'll know after the election.

[Lief 🗽]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

IVR landline-only polling has many faults, but opt-in Internet polling, like Lucid's methodology, is so unproven that they can't even generate a margin of error.   Both methods are terrible.  The only question is which is worse.  I guess we'll know after the election.

Isn't that how all online polling works though? YouGov is the same.

[cinyc]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

IVR landline-only polling has many faults, but opt-in Internet polling, like Lucid's methodology, is so unproven that they can't even generate a margin of error.   Both methods are terrible.  The only question is which is worse.  I guess we'll know after the election.

Isn't that how all online polling works though? YouGov is the same.

Not all of it.  Google Surveys conducts a lot of its polls as ads on news and other websites.  You might be able to skip the question, but that's equivalent to not answering the phone for a phone survey.  It's probably as close to random as an Internet survey can get.  But even some of the Google Surveys poll results come from their opt-in Mobile App, where people answer surveys for Google Play credits - not their 50-state poll results, though - that's entirely from ads.

[cinyc]

10/31-11/2: Clinton +5
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 39% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)

[Ebsy]

Wow, surging!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

10/31-11/2: Clinton +5
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 39% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)

Thank you Lucky Pickle Polling!