States To Go Blue

[mark_twain]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

[Xing]

I think she'll pull narrowly ahead in NV, NC, and FL. I'll avoid discussing the accuracy of the polls in NV, since I know that will trigger people.

OH is a bit less certain. If she only gets a 2% bounce, a near tie in OH is more likely.

[chrisras]

She'll get a nice bounce.  I'd say 3% - 5%.  Debate bounces don't usually lost long though.

I think Trump will win in a landslide.  My gut is telling me this.

He will flip Florida, Ohio, Nevada to red.  Keep North Carolina in the red column.

Pennsylvania or Michigan will push him over the 270 mark.

People are crazy if they think Obama's coalition will turn out as strong as they did for Obama.  She is just a very bad candidate.  Hispanic turnout might go up but African American turnout will plummet.

[Lachi]

She'll get a nice bounce.  I'd say 3% - 5%.  Debate bounces don't usually lost long though.

I think Trump will win in a landslide.  My gut is telling me this.

He will flip Florida, Ohio, Nevada to red.  Keep North Carolina in the red column.

Pennsylvania or Michigan will push him over the 270 mark.

People are crazy if they think Obama's coalition will turn out as strong as they did for Obama.  She is just a very bad candidate.  Hispanic turnout might go up but African American turnout will plummet.

LOL

[mark_twain]

She'll get a nice bounce.  I'd say 3% - 5%.  Debate bounces don't usually lost long though.

I think Trump will win in a landslide.  My gut is telling me this.

He will flip Florida, Ohio, Nevada to red.  Keep North Carolina in the red column.

Pennsylvania or Michigan will push him over the 270 mark.

People are crazy if they think Obama's coalition will turn out as strong as they did for Obama.  She is just a very bad candidate.  Hispanic turnout might go up but African American turnout will plummet.

This is not a bounce, I'm sorry to tell you...it's a shift.

PPP poll results are already coming and looking good for Clinton.

[ursulahx]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

Individual polls or polling averages?

[HillOfANight]

African American turnout will plummet.

No it won't "plummet". It's been rising for 20 years straight, with or without Obama.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/05/08/six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report/

[Nyvin]

A lot of Republicans were banking on African American turnout plummeting in 2012 from 2008 numbers so Romney could win.   That didn't work out either.

[MasterJedi]

Trump STILL loses, he's toast, especially with how awful he'll likely do in the last 2 debates.

[Mallow]

She'll get a nice bounce.  I'd say 3% - 5%.  Debate bounces don't usually lost long though.

I think Trump will win in a landslide.  My gut is telling me this.

He will flip Florida, Ohio, Nevada to red.  Keep North Carolina in the red column.

Pennsylvania or Michigan will push him over the 270 mark.

People are crazy if they think Obama's coalition will turn out as strong as they did for Obama.  She is just a very bad candidate.  Hispanic turnout might go up but African American turnout will plummet.

Apparently "barely scraping past 270" is now "winning in a landslide". Who would've thunk?

[mark_twain]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

Individual polls or polling averages?

Averages of state polls conducted after the debate.

As of today, there are already positive results from PPP for some of these states.

[AGA]

Do you mean Atlas-blue or conventional blue?

[mark_twain]

Do you mean Atlas-blue or conventional blue?

Everyone is welcome to use their own tracking of the polls.

Personally, I use the 538 forecast of state results.

[pbrower2a]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

Individual polls or polling averages?

Averages of state polls conducted after the debate.

As of today, there are already positive results from PPP for some of these states.

All but Nevada and Ohio -- they just were not polled. I'd like to see Iowa and Wisconsin polls, too.

[mark_twain]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

All blue now, according to 538!

[Nyvin]

I think a few states will go blue by the end of next week:

Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio


Feel free to discuss.

All blue now, according to 538!

All blue RCP averages too except Ohio

[Dr. Arch]

We're talking about Atlasian blue or what? This is confusing.

[elcorazon]

IA
AZ
GA
AK
MT
MO
SC

going blue soon!

[Lachi]

IA
AZ
GA
AK
MT
MO
SC

going blue soon!

#2020Hopes

[mark_twain]

We're talking about Atlasian blue or what? This is confusing.

538 Blue

[Xing]

IA
AZ
GA
AK
MT
MO
SC

going blue soon!

Maybe if Trump crashes and burns in the second debate, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch.

[Kempros]

It's 2016. Watch that pendulum swing like a clock.

[Ban my account ffs!]

It's 2016. Watch that pendulum swing like a clock.

It's 2016.  Watch your Trump hope drop like a rock.