How will Trump do in Upstate NY?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

SunriseAroundTheWorld commented in another thread that Carl Paladino was basically the 'Trump candidate' before Trump, which got me thinking, could Trump exceed expectations in New York without coming close to winning the state, or at least have the best showing of any Republican presidential candidate in New York since 1988?

For reference, here's the 2010 gubernatorial map, where Cuomo got 62% of the vote but got totally demolished in the Buffalo suburbs:



(Obviously this is with the stipulation that Paladino is from Buffalo and this happened during one of the worst midterm elections for Democrats in years.)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Bump.

[dspNY]

SunriseAroundTheWorld commented in another thread that Carl Paladino was basically the 'Trump candidate' before Trump, which got me thinking, could Trump exceed expectations in New York without coming close to winning the state, or at least have the best showing of any Republican presidential candidate in New York since 1988?

For reference, here's the 2010 gubernatorial map, where Cuomo got 62% of the vote but got totally demolished in the Buffalo suburbs:



(Obviously this is with the stipulation that Paladino is from Buffalo and this happened during one of the worst midterm elections for Democrats in years.)

Clinton will win upstate NY by 3-5 points. Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, Binghamton and the small college towns dominate the very rural areas

[Vosem]

Paladino is sort of unique in the way that he is (or was; considering he beat a sacrificial-lamb high school senior 51-49 for reelection to his school board seat a few months ago, this may have worn off) absolutely beloved in Buffalo; he won a unique, one-time victory in that area in the 2010 gubernatorial election, and then the area returned back to normal in 2014, even as Cuomo lost support massively in the rest of the state. Don't look for Trump to win Erie County, even if Paladino did.

[Devils30]

Trump will gain in the western half, south central part and Clinton will continue the Democratic trend along the NY/ VT border.

[Arbitrage1980]

NO way Trump wins Union County, the home of Buffalo. That county has not gone to a republican since Nixon 1972.

[SWE]

NO way Trump wins Union County, the home of Buffalo. That county has not gone to a republican since Nixon 1972.

When did Buffalo switch counties?

[cinyc]

NO way Trump wins Union County, the home of Buffalo. That county has not gone to a republican since Nixon 1972.

When did Buffalo switch counties?

Or when did New York get a Union County?

Most recent polls have Trump losing Upstate by 10 points or so.  He'll lose the big counties, like Erie (Buffalo), Monroe (Rochester), Onondaga (Syracuse) and Albany, along with Tompkins (Ithaca) and some others, but will do well in the rural Western New York Counties like Ontario, Wyoming and Allegheny. 

Broome (Binghamton) is actually a national PVI bellwether, but I suspect it might swing to Trump, like we've seen Luzerne County, Pennsylvania in Axiom Strategy's polling.  The New York County PVI maps are here.

[AGA]

The 2014 gubernatorial map is a much better representation of how a Republican could do well in Upstate New York.

[Badger]

The 2014 gubernatorial map is a much better representation of how a Republican could do well in Upstate New York.

I didn't realize Cuomo had such a relatively close race (i.e. kept under 55%).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The 2014 gubernatorial map is a much better representation of how a Republican could do well in Upstate New York.

I didn't realize Cuomo had such a relatively close race (i.e. kept under 55%).

Cuomo did a good job pissing off his base, so that's probably why it was a bit closer.  Notice he actually flips Erie County (Buffalo) and swings a few neighboring counties, presumably because of Hochul.

[King of Kensington]

Niagara County seems like a good area for Trump.