SC-Winthrop University (pre-debate): Trump +4

[MT Treasurer]

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

In before #BattlegroundSouthCarolina

Does anyone know if Winthrop has a decent polling dept?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

ouch for Trump

[Phony Moderate]

In before #BattlegroundSouthCarolina

I believe the final Atlas polling map in 2012 had South Carolina as a toss-up...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

In before #BattlegroundSouthCarolina

I believe the final Atlas polling map in 2012 had South Carolina as a toss-up...

OK, well, everyone thought ND was in play in 2008. Look how thatcher turned out

[afleitch]

In before #BattlegroundSouthCarolina

I believe the final Atlas polling map in 2012 had South Carolina as a toss-up...

Only because the last entered poll was from January 2012.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

YOWZA! 

Great poll for Hillary.  Surely NC is a fine shade of MSM-Blue.  Trump must be...

[LLR]

Lol, still nobody believes me

[Trapsy]

This just confirms she will win NC.

[TarHeelDem]

Beautiful poll! I look forward to more tight numbers coming out of SC.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WOWZA!!!  PPP's sexy NC numbers confirm it!

[HillOfANight]

http://www.winthrop.edu/uploadedFiles/wupoll/Oct2012WinthropPollFindings.pdf

Haven't seen much of their track record. In 2012, they polled SC's 7th district, found GOP up 13. The GOP ended up winning by 11.

[Seneca]

I don't understand what the plausible Romney-Clinton demographic is in SC, but close SC polls are now a recurring theme for this election.

Educated whites in the Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville metros.

[MasterJedi]

I don't understand what the plausible Romney-Clinton demographic is in SC, but close SC polls are now a recurring theme for this election.

Educated whites in the Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville metros.

Older people who voted Romney dying in the last 4 years and newer more liberal voters coming along contribute as well.

[Xing]

I could buy this if it were a post-debate poll, but it looks way too generous to Hillary for a pre-debate one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.winthrop.edu/uploadedFiles/wupoll/Oct2012WinthropPollFindings.pdf

Haven't seen much of their track record. In 2012, they polled SC's 7th district, found GOP up 13. The GOP ended up winning by 11.

They generally do a decent job, and since they use their students to do random digit dialing, they are calling cell phones as well as landlines.  That said I suspect that random chance favored Clinton here and that the sample that was polled was likely ½ to 1 standard deviations too generous to Clinton, which is going to happen from time to time.

[NOVA Green]

I don't understand what the plausible Romney-Clinton demographic is in SC, but close SC polls are now a recurring theme for this election.

Educated whites in the Columbia, Charleston, and Greenville metros.

Although, as a uni poll, there's probably a bit of junk going on here, SC is likely a more elastic state this year, than it has been historically.

Trump's positions on issues from foreign policy, and his various comments over the years regarding women, don't play so well within major segments of the SC Republican base, in a state with a long and proud history of military service, gentile Southern sensibilities, as well as a rapidly growing retiree population in the Coastal Parts of SC, many of whom come from the Central Atlantic and Northeast.

The "bubba vote" in SC has been greatly overestimated, and although I fully expect SC to go Republican in November, it will likely be by a much smaller margin than has been the case with "generic" and "moderate" Republican candidates.

[BaldEagle1991]

Dang if SC gets closer then there's hope for the other Southern states like GA and TX flipping.