India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

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India TV Punjab exit poll has INC landslide

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Summery of UP exit polls so far.  Chankaya has a a huge BJP house effect

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NDTV poll of polls for Punjab so far



INC      60
AAP      50
SAD-BJP  6
Others     1

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VDPA exit poll for Uttarakhand - landslide for BJP



BJP    49   43%
INC   16    36%
BSP     2     8%
Others 3   13%

Vote share

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VDPA exit poll for Goa



BJP            21   40%
INC             9   29%
AAP             3   12%
Othres         7   19%

Vote share

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NDTV summery of exit polls for Uttarakhand so far

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News24-Chanakya Punjab exit polls


INC             54   32%
AAP             54   34%
SAD-BJP        9  22%

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NDTV poll of polls for UP so far



BJP        193
INC-SP   120
BSP          78

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NDTV poll of polls for Uttarakhand so far



BJP           42
INC           24
Others        4

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IndiaTV-CVoter exit poll for UP

BJP getting 155 to 167 seats         33.4%
SP-INC       135 to 147 seats         32.3%
BSP              81 to 93 seats           24.3%
'Others          8 to 20 seats,           10.0%




 

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CVoter Punjab exit polls



SAD-BJP      9    21.4%
INC           45    36.3%
AAP          64     36.7%
Others        0      5.6%

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SP-INC blame game begins.  SP are now blaming INC for not doing well enough in the seats they were allocated and that SP made a mistake giving INC 105 seats.

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VDPA exit polls for Punjab, AAP majority



AAP         70
INC         30
SAD-BJP  10
Others      2

Vote share and regional breakdown

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Updated NDTV Uttarakhand poll of polls



BJP           45
INC          21
Other         4


I personally would throw out the Chanakaya results from the average as too heavy BJP house effect pollster

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ABP exit polls for UP



BJP 164-176 SEATS
SP-INC -156-169 SEATS
BSP 60-72 SEATS

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India Today Axis exit poll for Uttarakhand



BJP       46-53  43%
INC       12-21  34%
BSP        1-4      8%
Others    1-2    15%

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NDTV updated poll of polls for Goa



BJP      17
INC     13
AAP      4
Others  6

We can also add

Gramener Exit Poll



BJP      19
INC     14
AAP      6
Others  1

Which gives us the average of

BJP      18
INC     14
AAP      3
Others  5

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CVoter Uttarakhand, tie between INC and BJP




INC    29-35   40.4%
BJP    29-35   40.5%
Others 2-9     19.2%

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NDTV poll of polls for Punjab



INC        55
AAP        54
SAD-BJP   8
Others     1

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NDTV poll of polls for UP  



BJP       179
INC       136
BSP         77
Others    11

Of course this does not include very BJP friendly VDPA and Chanakya pollsters in there.  If they were then the BJP number will jump to 200 or so

Which looks a lot like my UP exit poll prediction

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80

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Looks like advantage and most likely majority for BJP in Uttarakhand,  neck-to-neck between AAP and INC in Punjab, advantage BJP in UP with possible majority, neck-to-neck between BJP and INC in Manipur, and slight edge for BJP in Goa with non party/bloc with majority.

I suspect real results will be a lot worse for BJP in Goa and a lot worse for INC in  Uttarakhand.  BSP will most likely do better in UP than these exist polls suggest so if BJP does not win a majority we are looking at a BSP-BJP government in UP.

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Updated NDTV poll of polls for Manipur



INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10

Gramener exit poll has



INC           24
BJP           25
Others      11

Which gives us the same average

INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10

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ABP exit poll for Uttarakhand

BJP      32-42  40%
INC     23-29  35%
Other    3-9    25%

If we add this to the NDTV running poll of polls average it gives an new "NDTV" average of

BJP          43
INC          23
Others       4

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Akhilesh Yadav does not rule out a SP-BSP government.

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ABP Exit Poll for Punjab which is the most positive for SAD-BJP

SAD-BJP      (19-27 SEATS)
INC              (46-56 SEATS)
AAP             (36-46 SEATS)
OTHERS       (0-4 SEATS)



If we add this to the current NDTV average we derived an updated "NDTV" poll of polls average for Punjab of

INC        54
AAP        52
SAD-BJP 10
Others     1