India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

INC ahead of BJP in Goa which is unexpected.

UP (402/403 counted)
SP-INC   81
BJP+    293
BSP       18
Others     9

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  27
INC        65
AAP        25
Others     0

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC         9
BJP        55
Others     6

Goa (23/40 counted)
INC         11
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (37/60 counted)
INC        17
TMC         0
BJP         13
Others      7

[jaichind]

ECI vote share so far

Goa

BJP         32.0%
INC         28.1%
MAG+      15.1%
AAP          5.8%

Punjab

INC        38.2%
AAP        23.5%
SAD-BJP  31.6%

UP

BJP+      41.7%
BSP        22.1%
SP-INC   27.8%
RLD         2.0%


Uttarakhand

BJP        44.8%
INC        34.1%
BSP         7.0%

[jaichind]

UP (402/403 counted)
SP-INC   77
BJP+    296
BSP       21
Others     8

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  24
INC        65
AAP        25
Others     3

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC        12
BJP        54
Others     4

Goa (23/40 counted)
INC         11
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (39/60 counted)
INC        18
TMC         0
BJP         13
Others      8

[jaichind]

Off too bed.  Results are clear in UP Punjab,Uttarakhand.  Manipur and Goa both are still not clear but it seems both will have INC having an edge but without majority.  AAP totally bombed in Goa which helped INC. MAG+ hurt BJP as expected.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Congress Party is becoming Labour of the 1980s and now

[jaichind]

It time to report results using ECI we are mostly done with counting

Goa (36 out of 40 are completely done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.0%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP has alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.9%

MAG+    3            12.7%
 MAG     3            11.5%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.2%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed)

INC doing much better than any poll had projected.  INC much better position than BJP to form government.

[jaichind]

Manipur (58 out of 60 reporting, 55 out of 58 completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       26           34.7%

AITC       1             1.5%

BJP       21            36.1%

NPF       4              7.5%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in other states)

NPP       4              5.3%   (NCP splinter, ally with BJP in other states)

LJP        1              2.7%   (ally with BJP at the national level)

Ind        1

Mosting going as expected with INC and BJP neck to neck with slight advantage for INC.  NPF most likely will go with BJP given the anti-Naga campaign INC ran.  NPP's position is unknown and most likely will determine who will form the government.

[jaichind]

Punjab (116 of 117 completely done, 1 left to finish)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            25.0%
 AAP     20            23.8%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.3%
 BJP       3             5.3%

AAP completely under-performed with allowed SAD to do better  and as a result the anti-INC vote was split giving INC a clear victory.  SAD vote share impressively high given how they were left for dead by most exit polls.

[jaichind]

UP  (377 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.0%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.2%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed)

BJP+ vote share completely way higher than expected with a massive seat count.  Vote share of candidates/parties outside of BJP+ SP-INC and BSP very low which shows the polarization of the electorate for Modi.  1977 JNP landslide was the last time such a massive victory of this scale was achieved in UP.

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 completely done counting)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       56             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2

Mostly fits the pre-election narrative of a clear BJP win but with BJP but with a more dramatic consolidation of the anti-INC vote toward BJP than expected. 

[jaichind]

Updated standings

Goa (39 out of 40 are completely done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.4%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP has alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.5%

MAG+    3            12.5%
 MAG     3            11.3%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.3%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed, 1 is MAG rebel)


Manipur (59 out of 60 reporting, 57 out of 59 completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       27           34.9%

AITC       1             1.4%

BJP       21            36.2%

NPF       4              7.3%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in Nagaland and national level)

NPP       4              5.1%   (NCP splinter, on and off ally with BJP)

LJP+      1              6.1%
 LJP       1              2.7%   (ally with BJP in Bihar and at the national level)
 NEIDP   0              3.4%

Ind        1



Punjab (116 of 117 completely done, 1 left to finish)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            25.0%
 AAP     20            23.8%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.3%
 BJP       3             5.3%



UP  (402 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.1%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.3%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

PECP      0            0.3%

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed)



Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 completely done counting)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       57             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2                               (both are INC rebels)

[jaichind]

The reasons INC is able to win the most number of seats in Manipur even though its vote share falls below BJP is because INC pretty much ran an campaign to polarize the majority  Meitei population against the Naga minorities.  As a result INC pretty much is getting zero in the rural Naga areas but make up for it in victories in Meitei urban areas around Impal.

[jaichind]

In UP the famous "wife vs wife vs rapist" election in Amethi ended in victory for first wife of INC leader Sanjay Singh, Garima Singh of the BJP

Garima Singh (BJP)  64,226   (former wife of INC leader and Raja of Amethi Sanjay Singh)
Gayatri Prasad (SP)  59,161   (incumbant SP minister accused of taking part in a gang rape of a
                                          minor and currently on the run from the law)
Ram Ji (BSP)           30,175
Ameeta Singh (INC)   20,291   (current wife of INC leader  and Raja of Amethi Sanjay Singh, former
                                          MLA of Amethi for BJP and then INC)

This is one of around 10 seats SP and INC failed to agree on a common candidate.  If SP-INC joined forces here then the BJP most likely could be beaten back.  When compared to 2012 when incumbent INC Ameeta Singh was beaten by  Gayatri Prasad of the SP, most of the 2012 INC vote went to BJP, mostly out of the sympathy factor for how Garima Singh was dumped by Sanjay Singh for Ameeta Singh.  Note that Ameeta Singh was married to one Syed Modi back in the 1980s who was murdered in an unsolved mystery back in 1988.  Ameeta Singh was known to be having an affair with Sanjay Singh at that time and it was suspected that Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh colluded to murder Syed Modi.  During the investigation and trial of the murder Syed Modi,  Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh denied having an affair.  As soon as  Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh were acquitted  Sanjay Singh dumped his wife Garima Singh and married  Ameeta Singh. This election is a interesting turn on the drama of Sanjay Singh and his wives.

[jaichind]

Updated standings. We are pretty much done.  Note vote shares include NOTA so the real vote share would be slightly higher

Goa (All 40 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.4%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP who is a INC splinter that had allied with BJP as INC rebel
                                      independents back in 2012 has tactical alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.5%

MAG+    3            12.5%
 MAG     3            11.3%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.3%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed, 1 is MAG rebel)


Manipur (All 60 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       28           35.1%

AITC       1             1.4%

BJP       21            36.3%

NPF       4              7.2%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in Nagaland and national level)

NPP       4              5.1%   (NCP splinter, on and off ally with BJP)

LJP+      1              5.9%
 LJP       1              2.5%   (ally with BJP in Bihar and at the national level)
 NEIDP   0              3.4%   (made up of a bunch of AITC rebels plus some old MSCP politicans,
                                        can be viewed as an AITC splinter)

Ind        1                        (all things equal this independent tends to have a pro-INC tilt)



Punjab (All 117 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            24.9%
 AAP     20            23.7%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.2%
 BJP       3             5.4%



UP  (402 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.0%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.2%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

PECP      0            0.3%

AIMIM    0            0.2%

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed, 1 is a SP rebel)



Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       57             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2                               (both are INC rebels)

[jaichind]

NDTV did a comparison in UP between seats count relative to both 2012 and 2014 LS results and showed that UP 2017 is really a repeat of 2014 LS BJP landslide.  SP-INC alliance totally failed as it merely repeated the 2014 results despite an alliance.

               Seats  vs 2012  vs 2014
BJP+         325      +277        -12
SP+           56       -198          -1
BSP           19         -61        +10
Others         3         -18         +3

Same chart for Uttarakhand also showed that for Uttarakhand is really a repeat of 2014 LS BJP landslide with a slight swing away from BJP

               Seats  vs 2012  vs 2014
BJP            57       +26        -6
INC            11       -21        +4
BSP             0       -3            0
Others         2        -2          +2

[jaichind]

In UP it seems given how low the BSP vote share is AND the fact that PECP and AIMIM vote share is so low indicates that SP-INC did manage to consolidate Muslims and most likely Yadavs for SP-INC. Main problem is they failed to win much of anything else and totally lost the Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC vote to BJP.  The BJP also seems to not have lost much of the Jat vote to RLD.  In retrospect it is not clear even a SP-BSP-INC-RLD alliance would have beaten BJP-AD-SBSP this time around.  2019 LS it might be different as the anti-incumbency factor will work against BJP versus 2014 and 2017.

[jaichind]

In Manipur, on paper BJP with 21, NPF 4, NPP 4, and LJP with 1 gets the pan-NDA bloc to 30 out of 60.  In reality INC with 28 can rope in AITC and the independent and break or bribe NPP to help INC to form the government.  Of course Manipur is dependent on central government subsidies so the BJP plan there should be to wait for INC to form the government, fissures form within the INC factions and then break INC with bribes and split the INC there to then help BJP form the government sometime in the near future. 

[jaichind]

In Goa, INC+ with 18 would just need to rope in GFP and NCP and should be able to form the government.   In response MAG will most likely re-ally with BJP to form the opposition bloc.  GFP is now the key factor on who would form the government.  They will get their pound of flesh no matter what.

[jaichind]

In Goa, the BJP CM Laxmikant Parsekar was defeated in his own seat by the INC candidate.  BJP has indicated that it will try to rope in MAG and GFP to form a government.  MAG is easy while proto-GFP allied with BJP back in 2012 but had a falling out so that would be harder.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So essentially a repeat of 2014 but at a state level.

[jaichind]

It Manipur it seems like BJP is cobbling up a non-INC majority.  NPF, NPP, and IJP have all indicated they will support a non-INC ministry.  That adds up to 30 out of 60.  They really have to rope in AITC and the independent as well because I assume the BJP government would want it own Speaker and the Speaker could not vote on most issues so any majority has to have 32 members in its bloc just to make sure.  With INC at 28 that is pretty much every non-INC MLA. 

[jaichind]

Some NDTV analysis of UP

It points out that vote shares in UP looks very similar in 2014 and 2017


It also point out that BJP slightly over performed 2014 in 2017 once we take into account of the combined vote share of INC and SP in 2014


It also claims that outside of Muslims, the vote share for Dalits, Upper Castes, Jats, Yadavs and non-Yadav OBCs were similar across three blocs and as a result "Caste no longer matters in UP politics"


I am not sure I buy this one.  Not sure where they got these numbers, especially for SC (Dalits) and Yadavs.  I find it hard to believe that BJP+ beat SP-INC for Yadav vote just like I really doubt BSP can win 22% of the Yadav vote.  Likewise I find it hard to believe that SP-INC can win 26% of the SC(Dalit vote.)  If someone told me that BJP+ would win only 44% of the Upper Caste vote then I would say BJP+ is lost for sure.  

Also this chart tells me that BJP+ won around 43% of the non-Muslim vote which is 80% of the UP voting population.  But then for the total results to make sense and for BJP+ to win 42% of the vote overall then BJP+ would have to win around 38%???!!! of the Muslim vote.

Again, these numbers make no sense.    Most likely from the same sources that did the exit polls which were so off.  The entire NDTV narrative seems wrong and based on bogus numbers for their analysis.

[jaichind]

BSP's Mayawati claims that the UP election were rigged by the BJP.

[jaichind]

Punjab results map



In Hindu areas, AAP is very weak and it was INC vs BJP with INC sweeping almost all the seats.  In Sikh areas it is a 3 way battle between AAP, SAD, and INC with a slight edge for INC, followed by AAP and then SAD.

[jaichind]

So essentially a repeat of 2014 but at a state level.

Yes, in UP and Uttarakhand.  In Punjab both AAP and SAD-BJP lost ground from 2014 to INC.  In Goa INC gain ground relative to BJP since 2014 while in Manipur INC lost ground to BJP since 2014 (Manipur was one of the very few states where INC still beat NDA in 2014.)  In other words, the incumbent party lost ground across the board since 2014.  If so then one can argue that in UP and Uttarakhand there has been some ebbing of the Modi wave since there has been 3 extra years of anti-incumbency built up against SP in UP and INC in  Uttarakhand.