India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat  (Read 45352 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #350 on: June 22, 2017, 09:11:02 PM »

NDA nominates Ram BJP ex-MP and now Governor of Bihar Nath Kovind for Prez while UPA nominates ex-Speaker Meira Kumar.  Both are Dalits so the race will become Dalit vs Dalit.  Of course NDA has the clear advantage with all AIADMK factions, YSRCP and BJD backing NDA.  BSP was going to back Kovind due to him being a Dailt but is going back to UPA once Meira Kumar was nominated.   NDA will win, question is by how much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: June 25, 2017, 08:23:44 AM »

Senior Gujarat INC leader and former CM Shankersinh Vaghela is threatening to leave INC ahead of the assembly elections in the fall for failing to give him free reign in selecting candidates and running the campaign



Shankersinh Vaghela used to be in the BJP was was now PM Narenda Modi's mentor back in the early 1990s.  Modi then backed Shankersinh Vaghela's opponents in the BJP in the mid 1990s leading to  Shankersinh Vaghela bolting from BJP and forming a BJP rebel party RJP.  RJP then formed an alliance with INC and formed the government in Gujarat with  Shankersinh Vaghela as CM in 1996.  After that  Shankersinh Vaghela and INC had a falling out triggering early 1998 where BJP defeated INC and RJP which ran seperately.   Then  Shankersinh Vaghela merged RJP into INC (if he only did it before the 1998 elections he could have been CM again).  After that he became the senior INC leader in Gujarat.  There has been news that for Modi to make sure that INC is crushed in the fall elections in Gujarat that the BJP has been trying to lure  Shankersinh Vaghela to come back to BJP.  It seems those rumors might be true.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #352 on: July 01, 2017, 08:41:05 AM »

NDA clearly winning the battle on the Prez race.  Non-NDA parities such as AIADMK are backing NDA.
 Opposition parities that should be aligned with UPA for survival reasons such BJD, TRS, INLD and YRSCP are going with NDA as well.  And JD(U) seems to be defecting from UPA to back NDA.  Also NDA managed to get SHS to back the NDA candidate.  Only relative gain for UPA is the fact that AAP could end up backing UPA.  It seems that the JD(U) is backing NDA just to signal RJD that it has other options as power sharing in Bihar between JD(U) and RJD are running into problems as time goes on.

The new unified GST tax regime went give today despite great misgivings by the business community.  As longs the roll-out works out well the next few months I do not see and alternative to a NDA victory in 2019.  The real battle now is who is going to be able to lead a united opposition in 2024 when NDA will run into a possible anti-incumbency mood.
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: July 17, 2017, 06:17:24 AM »

Prez election in progress with MP and MLA voting.  This election will be historic as this will be the first time someone from the Hindu Right,Nath Kovind,  will be elected President.  Only mystery now is the scale of his victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: July 20, 2017, 11:30:33 AM »

Ram Nath Kovind  elected president with 65.65% of the vote.  Back in 2012 UPA's Mukherjee won with 69.31% of the vote. 

Voting mostly went as expected along party lines.  BJP managing to rope in pro-NDA or potentially pro-NDA opposition parties like BJD, TRS, YSRCP, AIADMK (all 3 factions), and AINRC. NDA managed to keep all NDA parties including SHS.  SP BSP JS(S) AAP BSP AITC did go with UPA. 

In Tripura, AITC voted NDA to protest AITC-Left Front alliance to back UPA.  In Jharkhand it seems JVM split their vote between UPA and NDA.   Significant parts of the Goa INC voted NDA given the current ongoing INC civil war there. 



For UPA to keep it even sort of close in 2019 it has to somehow keep the SP-BSP alliance going in UP with INC support, keep the RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance going, build an alliance with AAP in New Delhi, rope in JD(S) in Karnataka, build a grand JMM-INC-JVM alliance in Jharkhand, rope in BJD in Orissa, rope in YSRCP in AP, rope in TRS in Telengana, and hope TN turns into a 3 way between between AIADMK vs BJP vs DMK-INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: July 21, 2017, 11:34:59 AM »

INC Shankersinh Vaghela  who was the former CM of Gujarat and former political mentor to Modi has quit INC.  It seems he will not join BJP but lead an anti-INC anti-BJP front.  This pretty much removes any chance of INC beating BJP in Gujarat.  I suspect INC will still keep it close as anti-incumbency will weight in on BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: July 26, 2017, 06:22:13 PM »

Dramatic change in Bihar.   After dumping BJP in 2013 and taking support of INC before forming a RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance in 2015, Nitish Kumar had a falling out with RJD and resigns of CM of Bihar.  He then got the support of BJP and will now swear in as CM of Bihar leading a JD(U)-BJP government which returns to the status quo of 2013.  The reason for this is in theory corruption charges of Lulu Yadav's son and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav.  In practice this seems to be a calculation that on Nithsh Kumar's part that he is not likely to be picked as the PM candidate for the anti-BJP opposition in 2019 and that BJP will almost certainly win in 2019. 

Nitish Kumar is taking a risk with this flip flop that the anti-BJP faction of JD(U) might split just like the pro-BJP faction split in 2015 forming HAM which allied with BJP.  Nitish Kumar's hand might get weaker and weaker as time goes on.  In 2013 JD(U) was the dominate partner relative to the BJP.  Now the roles will eventually be reversed.
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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: July 27, 2017, 10:51:50 AM »

Senior JD(U) leader and former President of JD(U) Sharad Yadav


Seems to be upset at Nitish Kumar rapid move to ally with BJP.  It is said he is meeting with INC.  JD(U) might be headed for another split.
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: July 27, 2017, 11:22:26 AM »

There is talk that BJP might offer Sharad Yadav a position in the cabinet to try to buy his faction's support for the new JD(U)-BJP alliance.

A floor test for the new government is tomorrow.  In theory it is

Pro Nitish Kumar
JD(U)           71
BJP              53
LJP               2
RLSP             2
HAM             1
Ind               3   (all BJP rebels but will back JD(U)-BJP to get a share of power)
---------------------------------
                132

What is funny is LJP RLSP and HAM are all JD(U) splinter parties.  Now all of them plus JD(U) are back in the same alliance.

Anti Nitish Kumar
RJD            80
INC            27
CPI(ML)(L)   3
--------------------------------
               110

There is on JD(U) rebel whose position is not clear but I think JD(U)-BJP should be able to buy him off.  One RJD MLA has indicated that he will defect and vote for Nitish Kumar.  

So that will give us 134 vs 109 in favor of Nitish Kumar.

There will be a rebellion of some sort of an unknown size.  There are 5 Muslim and 11 Yadav JD(U) MLAs. If RJD can get all of them to defect then it will be   118 vs 125 leading to Nitish Kumar's defeat.  So now the battle is how many of these possible 16 JD(U) defectors can RJD cobble up, potentially with the help of Sharad Yadav.  The next 24 hours will be critical.
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: July 27, 2017, 12:12:35 PM »

The JD(U) alliance is a huge boon for the BJP.  Aside from taking over a large state and pulling JD(U) into the BJP alliance there are 9 JD(U) MPs in the Upper House.  One of them has come out openly against the BJP alliance.  But if the other 8 MPs fall in line then the NDA is pretty close getting an absolute majority in the Upper House and the anti-BJP bloc will lose all leverage over Modi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #360 on: July 28, 2017, 05:56:08 AM »

Nitish Kumar wins 131-108. Despite talks of defections on both sides there seems very little of it. Mostly gone on party line vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: August 03, 2017, 08:39:53 PM »

Ever since Shankersinh Vaghela quit Gujarat INC there have been several INC MLAs that quit the INC.  With an Upper House election coming up for Gujarat the INC is fearful that more defections would mean their candidate will not be elected.  So the remaining INC MLAs were flown to a resort in Karnataka and kept under de facto house arrest to prevent more defections (just  like the AIADMK civil war situation.)  It seems less and less likely the INC can win the Gujarat assembly elections. Of course in many ways the BJP should be in trouble in Gujarat given the Patel and Dalit protests and vote-getter Modi in Delhi.  In many ways that is the reason the BJP is investing so much into destabilizing the INC since a well organized INC could very well win later this year.  As it is now INC might even gain a few seats but BJP will most likely win re-election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #362 on: August 03, 2017, 08:42:50 PM »

The situation in JD(U) is interesting.   There is now pretty much two JD(U) factions.  The Bihar state JD(U) led by Kitish Kumar are allied with BJP which is part of his government.  The JD(U) in the Upper House mostly led by anti-BJP Sharad Yadav are staying in the JD(U) for now but voting with INC against BJP bills.  NDA will gain a majority in the Upper House eventually over time but getting there quickly by adding in the JD(U) members looks like did not work.
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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: August 05, 2017, 08:01:34 AM »

Vice President election today.  Method of election same as for President except for only MP votes instead of MP and MLAs.  NDA's Venkaiah Naidu should have an easy win over UPA's Gopalkrishna Gandhi.  What would be interesting is how much of the non-UPA non-NDA votes go to Gandhi as in the Prez race they mostly went NDA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #364 on: August 05, 2017, 09:34:46 AM »

NDA's Naidu 516 Gandhi 244.  11 Invalid 14 did not vote.

516 for Naidu sounds about right.  If we go with NDA (340 Lower 86 Upper) AIADMK (37 Lower 13 Upper) BJD (20 Lower 8 Upper) TRS (11 Lower 3 Upper) YSRCP (9 Lower 1 Upper) plus 8 Nominated Upper House MP one gets 536.   Then there are independents (3 Lower and 6 Upper) that some might have voted NDA.  Given 25 MPs did not vote it seem NDA got the same voting bloc as the Prez elections with a few defections. 

Unlike the Prez elections where the UPA bloc clearly had defectors to the NDA candidate, this time around there were more NDA defections.  Part of it is JD(U) which is now part of NDA did promise to back Gandhi before joining up with NDA and I am sure some still voted Gandhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #365 on: August 06, 2017, 12:50:19 PM »

NDA's Naidu 516 Gandhi 244.  11 Invalid 14 did not vote.

516 for Naidu sounds about right.  If we go with NDA (340 Lower 86 Upper) AIADMK (37 Lower 13 Upper) BJD (20 Lower 8 Upper) TRS (11 Lower 3 Upper) YSRCP (9 Lower 1 Upper) plus 8 Nominated Upper House MP one gets 536.   Then there are independents (3 Lower and 6 Upper) that some might have voted NDA.  Given 25 MPs did not vote it seem NDA got the same voting bloc as the Prez elections with a few defections. 

Unlike the Prez elections where the UPA bloc clearly had defectors to the NDA candidate, this time around there were more NDA defections.  Part of it is JD(U) which is now part of NDA did promise to back Gandhi before joining up with NDA and I am sure some still voted Gandhi.

One correction.  It seems JD(U) and BJD both did project their intention to vote for Gandhi which in theory removed 40 votes away from Naidu relative to the Prez election.  It seems in reality a good percentage of both delegations did vote for  Naidu to get to the result we ended up having.
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jaichind
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« Reply #366 on: August 08, 2017, 07:03:19 AM »

Vote in Gujarat assembly for Upper House MPs today. 3 up for election.   The election math works like this: There are 182 MLAs.  INC had 57 MLA but 6 resigned (3 of them to join BJP) leaving INC with 51 so we are down to 176 MLAs.  So to win a candidate has to win 45 votes. In theory INC can win its 1 seat.  But Vaghela's INC rebel faction has 7 members.  BJP nominated 3 candidates 2 from BJP and 1 candidate close to  Vaghela to get his support.   So what INC had done is to put its 44 loyal MLAs in a resort in Karnataka until the day or the election to avoid more defections.  INC then has to hope for support from 2 NCP MLAs and 1 JD(U) MLA.  Before the voting it seems  Vaghela's faction will vote for the pro-BJP candidate and the Gujarat NCP indicated that it will vote BJP as well defying their high command.

Vote which is a secret ballot just ended.  It seems INC has at least 1 defection since one INC MLA refuse to show his ballot to the INC whip before voting.  On the other hand the JD(U) MLA did seem to back the INC candidate.  So INC now has to hope for 1 or both NCP MLA to ignore their Gujarat leadership and vote INC.  There are also chance of BJP defections to INC.    INC claims during the voting they have 45 (43 from INC, 1 from JD(U) and 1 from NCP).  Results will be out soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: August 08, 2017, 08:40:24 AM »

INC is claiming that 2 of its MLA showed their ballot papers to the BJP President Amit Shah.  This is in theory illegal.  A MLA can only show the ballot paper to the whip of party the MLA belongs too.  BJP denies this.  This is being looked into so the counting is delayed.  Based on this most likely INC failed to get to 45 votes due to several of its MLAs defecting. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #368 on: August 08, 2017, 10:36:08 AM »

INC insist it has evidence (I think video) that 2 INC MLA showed their ballots to an unauthorized person and that their votes should be invalidated.  BJP argues that there is no evidence.  ECI taking its time to make a call and even start the counting.
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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: August 08, 2017, 02:06:59 PM »

ECI invalidates the votes of the 2 rebel INC MLAs for showing them on video to an unauthorized person.  In the meantime a BJP MLA admits to voting for the INC candidate. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: August 08, 2017, 03:57:17 PM »

INC candidate wins seat for Upper House.  It was BJP 46 BJP 46 INC 44 BJP 38.  By disqualifying the 2 INC rebel MLA  the threshold for victory became 44 instead of 45 which was just enough for the INC candidate to win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #371 on: August 08, 2017, 04:26:49 PM »

If the ECI decision had gone against INC and the two INC rebel MLA votes counted then it would have been BJP 46 BJP 46 INC 44 BJP 40 with the threshold of victory being 45.  The INC candidate failing to pass that threshold means that second preference votes would then be counted which would be BJP making the way for the third BJP candidate to win.  So it seems had the 2 INC MLAs not shown their ballot to the BJP President Amit shah (I assume to claim credit for their defection for whatever goodies they were promised for defecting)  the INC candidate would have gone down to a humiliating defeat.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: August 08, 2017, 06:47:37 PM »

The INC candidate's vote of 44 MLA is interesting.  Once we take into account of the Vaghela faction INC was down to 44 loyal MLAs.  But it seems 1 BJP rebel, 1 NCP MLA and the lone JD(U) MLA all voted for the INC candidate.  That means 3 out of the 44 "loyal MLA"s actually vote for the BJP candidate.  So it seems the resort politics tactic of isolating the 44 INC MLA did not work.  If it was not the mistake of the 2 Vaghela faction INC rebel MLA being caught showing their ballot to the BJP President then these 3  rebels would have sunk the INC's chances.
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jaichind
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« Reply #373 on: August 09, 2017, 06:43:59 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2017, 06:45:49 PM by jaichind »

Looks like JD(U) is headed for a split with Sharad Yadav leading the anti-BJP faction of JD(U) out of the party.  It is not clear how much support Sharad Yadav has but it is also not clear how much real support Nitish Kumar has now his main asset, his personality, somewhat tarnished with his repeated flip flops.

Even without the now soon defection of Sharad Yadav it was never going to be smooth sailing for BJP and JD(U) when it comes to seat sharing arrangements in 2019 LS elections and 2020 Assembly elections.  Ever since the bifurcation of Bihar in 2000 into Bihar and Jharkhand, JD(U) has been the senior partner in the JD(U)-BJP alliance.  The distribution of seats contested in Bihar in various elections were the following

1999 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)   23
BJP      15
BPP       2

2004 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)   24
BJP      16

2005 Feb Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  138
BJP     103
Ind.       2

2005 Oct Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  138
BJP     103
Ind.       2

2009 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)  25
BJP     15

2010 Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  141
BJP     102

Whereas in 2014 LS and 2015 Assembly elections BJP was the senior partner of the JD(U)-less alliance.  It was

2014 LS (out of 40)
BJP      30
LJP       7
RLSP     3

2015 Assembly (out of 243)
BJP     159
LJP       40
RLSP    23
HAM     21

While in the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance it is for 2015 Assembly election
JD(U)  101
RJD     101
INC       41

For 2019 LS and 2020 Assembly, even a JD(U) without Sharad Yadav is expecting an arrangement similar to the 1999-2010 period.  But the BJP now used to be the top dog and will assert that JD(U) is not what it was, especially without  Sharad Yadav.  And there are also LJP RLSP and HAM to accommodate.    BJP might agree to Nitish Kumar being the CM candidate but will insist that BJP contest the largest number, if not near majority of the seats.  That will cause a collision with JD(U) who will insist on something at least like JD(U) and RJD in 2015 (same number of seats) when 2019 and 2020 comes around.
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: August 09, 2017, 06:55:50 PM »

BJP President Amit Shah set a goal for the BJP to win 150 out of 182 seats in Gujarat.   Back in 2012 it was BJP 115, INC 61, GPP 2 (GPP is a BJP splinter has since merged back into BJP), NCP 2, JD(U) 1, Independent 1. 

Most likely INC will gain seats rather than lose seats in my opinion although BJP is unlikely to lose its majority.
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