India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

Sharad Yadav is provoking his own expulsion of him and his faction from JD(U) so he can still keep his Upper House seat.  He is now publicly saying that Nitish Kumar betrayed  the mandate of 2015 by forming an alliance with BJP which from a certain point of view is true. On the other hand how come back in 2013 when Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav broke with the BJP it was not considered by Sharad Yadav as a "betrayal" of the mandate of 2010 when JD(U)-BJP swept the polls and formed the government ?

[jaichind]

Bihar 2010 to now reminds me a lot of Australia 2007-2013. 

In 2007 Australia voted for Rudd but then got  Gillard then in 2010   Australia voted for Gillard  but then got Rudd.

Likewise in 2010 Bihar voted for JD(U)-BJP but got JD(U)-RJD-INC.  In 2010 Bihar voted for JD(U)-RJD-INC then got JD(U)-BJP.

[jaichind]

Back in the 2015 Bihar elections I wrote a history of different political players and their alignment

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

Again, every important player in Bihar has been allied with and the enemy of every other player with the exception of the fact that INC and BJP were never allies.

For 2019 LS election I guess now we can add

2019 LS (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + INC)

BJC(R) leader Jagannath Mishra is most likely out of politics given the latest charges of corruption leveled against him for his tenure as INC Bihar CM back in the late 1980s.

I am almost certain there will be another realignment before 2019 comes around.

[jaichind]

In TN, after being let out on bail, AIADMK's General Secreatary Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran is working to re-asset himself with the Sasikala faction of the AIADMK.  This is provking the pro-CM EPS bloc to try to break free of   TTV Dinakaran by working to oust   TTV Dinakaran from and working to re-unify with OPS faction.  Main problem is the MLA breakdown seems to be

AIADMK
 EPS faction         86 
 OPS faction        12
 Sasikala faction  37

DMK                   89
INC                      8
IMUL                    1

The current EPS government is made up of the AIADMK EPS faction of 86 and Sasikala faction 37 which gives a bare majority.  But if EPS dumps  Sasikala faction and merges with OPS faction that gives them 96 MLAs only and EPS will lose his majority. 

The EPS and OPS factions seems to be reaching out to BJP for help from the center to deal with this situation by finding ways to break the   Sasikala faction with the help and support of the central government.  If this succeeds then a unified AIADMK will join NDA. 

[jaichind]

With the EPS and OPS factions of AIADMK working on a merger backed by BJP, the main condition is sidling of TTV Dinakaran and any influence of Sasikala.  TTV Dinakaran is striking back by holding a rally where 23 AIADMK MLA and 4 AIADMK MPs attended.  His show of force that at least 23 AIADMK MLA are with him is putting a brake on AIADMK merger plans less somehow EPS and OPS can lure more pro-TTV Dinakaran MLAs back on their side.  The alternative is the EPS government losing a vote of no confidence with DMK eagerly looking forward to an early election.

[jaichind]

India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) has NDA still way ahead



with

NDA     349   42%
UPA       75   28%
Others  119   30%

Back in 2014 it was

NDA     336   38.45%
UPA       59   23.12%
Others  148  38.43%

So both NDA and UPA gain at the expense of Others since 2014.

Not clear if NDA numbers include JD(U).  If it does not then we should really add ~15 seats and ~1% to NDA.  Also some set of AIADMK factions will eventually join NDA which in turn should add another around ~15 and ~2% to NDA.   If NDA gets to, as a result, ~45% of the vote it would put them at par with 1962 and 1980 proto-UPA levels of vote share.

On the UPA side it seems this does not take into account possible future UPA allies

DMK      ~23 seats and ~2.5% (in TN)
AITC     ~30 seats and ~3.5% (in WB)

And somewhat likely
YSRCP   ~10 seats and ~2.5% (in AP)
SP         ~10 seats and ~3.0% (in UP)
BSP         ~5 seats and ~2.5% (in UP)
AUDF       ~3 seats and  ~0.4% (in Assam)

It seems JD(S) BJD AAP and TRS are unlikely to join UPA

Of course even INC can but this super-UPA it would only add up to around 42% of the vote and the overhead of accomodaing all these parties would add to defections so it is unlikely this 42% can be sustained while at the same time NDA will have 45%.

So while 2019 is mostly gone for UPA, if it can form a Grand alliance like UPA in 2019 it does set things up well for 2024 as long as it can hold together as anti-incumbency will weigh in on Modi by then. 

[jaichind]

C Fore pre-poll survey of Karnataka where elections are due in 2018 has

          vote share     seats
INC        43%           126
BJP        32%             66
JD(S)     17%             27
Others                         5


Back in 2013 it was

          vote share     seats
INC        36.6%        122
JD(S)     20.2%         40
BJP        19.9%         40
KJP         9.8%           6
BSRCP    2.7%            4
Others                        3

KJP and BSRCP has both since merged into BJP so the combined vote share of all 3 parties adds up to 32.4%

So this poll has BJP hodling its vote share from 2013 and a swing from JD(S) to INC.  Sort of a surprise as I would expect the BJP to be ahead without an INC-JD(S) alliance.  I suspect as the election gets closer for the polls to move in BJP's favor given the anti-incumbency against the INC government.  

[jaichind]

In TN, AIADMK OPS and EPS factions agreed to merge.  The united AIADMK will expel  Sasikala, the jailed General Secretary, as per request of the OPS faction.  It seems EPS will remain CM while ex-CM OPS will become DCM.  Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran still seems to have the support of over 20 AIADMK MLA so this new arrangement might lead to the fall of the AIADMK government.   
 

[jaichind]

Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, leader of the cult Dera Sacha Sauda (DSS), was convicted of rape of several minors.




DSS is strong in the Punjab Haryana Delhi.  As a result there have been mass riots by DSS supporters, mostly in Haryana, with dead hitting at least 32.



DSS is popular amoung lower caste and Dalit populations with its caste-less message.  It is also active politically backing INC in 2007 and 2012 in Punjab and backing BJP in 2014 in Haryana and 2017 in Punjab.  Overall its backing tends to turn off Sikh voters who have a running religious feud with DSS.  Other than Punjab 2007 backing from DSS tends to hurt the party it backs as DSS is quite large but tends to mobilize an even larger anti-DSS vote for the opposing party.

One of the reasons it seems that the riots got out of control is because of the BJP-DSS alliance in Haryana and the BJP regme in Haryana not acting quickly to suppress the rioters of its DSS allies in Haryana.  This is going to hurt BJP in Haryana.  

As for the rape case it is the same old drill with rapes within a cult.  The leader, in this case Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, is allegedly have wanted sexual contact with daughters of cult members and claiming that such contact has religious and spiritual value.  Of course Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh claims that he is physically not capable of sexual activities.  It seems the courts ruled against him.  There are also claims that DSS has pressured over 400 male DSS members to castrate themselves to ensure that they do not have unwarranted sexual contact  with other members of the DSS cult in the DSS communal compound. 

[jaichind]

In TN the now EPS-OPS fusion is working to remove  Sasikala as general secretary of AIADMK.  But Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran  counter attacked by getting 19 AIADMK MLAs to back him in calling for the removal of EPS as CM which makes the distribution of MLA.  Note that Sasikala faction  has large financial assets that can be used to gain political leverage over the AIADMK MLAs.

AIADMK
 EPS-OPS faction     116 
 Sasikala faction       19

DMK                       89
INC                         8
IMUL                       1

Which EPS-OPS can surive because they use anti-defection law to remove the 19 Sasikala faction MLA as the MLA and EPS-OPS faction of 116 can still outvote DMK-INC-IMUL. 

But as EPS-OPS gathered a party meeting to remove  Sasikala as general secretary of AIADMK 4 more AIADMK MLA joined the Sasikala faction  and a bunch of additional nominally EPS-OPS MLAs did not join the said meeting.  EPS-OPS faction then had cold feet and delayed the decision remove Sasikala.  This only emboldened  TTV Dinakaran and it seems the Sasikala faction has grown to 32 which means it is

AIADMK
 EPS-OPS faction     103 
 Sasikala faction       32

DMK                       89
INC                         8
IMUL                       1

Now if the Sasikala faction of 32 MLAs are removed as MLAs under the anti-defection law then EPS-OPS is down to 103 over 98 of DMK-INC-IMUL where the margin gets very close.   

The EPS-OPS merger and plan to remove  Sasikala and then take AIADMK into the NDA seems to be blowing up on EPS-OPS as there are rumors that these losses to  Sasikala faction are leading to tension between the EPS and OPS factions.

[jaichind]

Lokniti-CSDS for ABP poll for Gujarat has BJP winning in a landslide with BJP winning 59% of the vote versus 29% for INC and winning almost 150 out of 182 seats.   Back in 2012 it was

            vote share    seats
BJP            115          47.9% 
INC+           63          39.8%  (INC backed NCP in a few seats)
GPP              2            3.6%

This time NCP will run separately from INC and GPP has since merged back into BJP.    I still mostly do not buy it.  I mostly feel that INC will get a small positive swing from 2012.

[jaichind]

Since Gujarat is coming up soon. It might be useful to look at the electoral history of Gujarat. 

Gujarat was created by merging Gujarati speaking areas of Bombay state with Kutch and Saurashtra in 1960





Initially INC was dominate but politics in Gujarat quickly became a bipolar state with INC vs Right Wing INC splinters in the 1960s to 1990s and INC vs BJP 1990s to today.  Gujarat quickly became a state that has an anti-INC lean but at the same time is a fairly inelastic state, especially at the federal level.

The 1962 LS election which is the first election in Gujarat finds INC pitted against SWA which is a free market Right wing INC splinter and is representative of the INC domination of Indian politics across other Indian states

Gujarat 1962 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            22               16              52.56%

SWA+        19                4               30.86%

PSP+         15                 2               14.10% (NJP and RPI are part of PSP+)

BJS             5                 0                1.44%  (BJS is proto-BJP)

RPI is a Dalit based party which one can see as a proto-BSP.  NJP was a party that existed to help create the state of Gujarat.  It disappeared soon after 1962 since the main raison d'etre of its existence has been accomplished. 

The 1962 Gujarat assembly elections had similar results with INC domination with SWA as the main opposition party.

[jaichind]

In 1967 Gujarat had both LS and assembly elections.  INC had setbacks across Northern India but in Gujarat it was was very severe in the LS election with all opposition parties (SWA BJS PSP RPI) all ganged up under the SWA banner and managed to narrowly beat INC.  This took place despite significant rebellion in the SWA+ bloc.  SWA and PSP ran separately in the 1967 Gujarat Assembly and allowed INC to win.

Gujarat 1967 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            24                11               46.92%

INC rebel                        0                 1.28%

SWA+        24                13               45.70%  (RPI and PSP are part of SWA+)

SWA rebel                      0                 3.57%
 

Gujarat 1967 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            168              93               45.96%

INC rebel                        2                  2.60%

SWA+        166             69                41.47%  (BJS was part of SWA+)

SWA rebel                      1                  2.50%

PSP+          51               3                  3.69%  (SSP was part of PSP+)
 
 

[jaichind]

Between 1967 and 1971/1972 which had the next round of elections in Gujarat there were 2 critical events that took place in 1969 that is critical for the political future of Gujarat.  First, INC split in 1969 into INC(O) and INC(R) [which I will still call INC].  INC(R) is the pro-India Gandhi faction of the INC while INC(O) is the pro-party boss faction of INC.  Morarji Desai who is the INC leader of Gujarat became the  leader of INC(O) which in turn due to the favorite son effect made INC(O) more powerful than INC in Gujarat even if the reverse was true in the rest of India.



INC(O) then displaced SWA as the main opposition force to INC in Gujarat.  Also in 1969 severe Hindu-Muslim riots broke out with almost 1000 people kill as a result.  These riots catapulted the Hindu nationalist BJS (proto-BJP) into a real force in Gujarat.  

In 1971 Indira Gandhi called mid-term elections which pitted a loose alliance of INC(O), SWA, BJS BLD and SSP against INC.    In Gujarat INC(O) failed to form an alliance with BJS and given the nature of the 1971 LS election was an Indira Gandhi vs INC(O) battle BJS ended up being marginalized.  INC(O)+ bloc managed a narrow win over Indira Gandhi's INC despite an INC landslide victory in the rest of India.  The impact of local favorite son Morarji Desai was clearly a major factor.

Gujarat 1971 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC+           24               11               46.44%   (PSP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                 0.71%

INC(O)+      24               13               47.25%   (SWA was part of INC(O)+)

INC(O) rebel                                       0.24%

BJS              5                 0                 2.22%


India Gandhi's INC landslide victory across India in 1971 drove a lot of INC(O) cadres to defect back to INC.   As a result when the 1972 Gujarat Assembly election took place the INC has gained ground on INC(O).  Worse SWA split from INC(O) to run separately.   Also the true size of BJS became clear given the 1969 riots and the shift of Hindu vote toward BJS which also took support from INC(O).  The result of the split in the anti-INC vote was a massive INC landslide.

Gujarat 1972 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC             168            140              50.93%

INC rebel                         1                 0.88%

INC(O)+      158             20               27.34%

INC(O) rebel                    0                 1.77%

BJS+          125                6              12.35%

SWA             47               0                 1.78%

SOP             15                0                 0.72%  (SOP is united party of PSP-SSP merger)

CPI              11                1                 0.47%

[jaichind]

The very nature of the landslide victories of Indira Gandhi's INC in 1971-1972 itself provoked the fusion of opposition against it in Gujarat and in the rest of India.  By 1973 JM was formed as an alliance of opposition parties which include INC(O), BJS, BLD (SWA merged into BLD), RMP (local Gujarat INC splinter), and SOP.  JM should be seen as a proto-JNP.   Separately the INC CM of Chimanbhai Patel was put under pressure from the opposition due to various corruption scandals which led to a crescendo of protests.  

 

In the end Chimanbhai Patel was forced to resign in 1974 and new assembly elections called in Gujarat for 1975.  Right after Chimanbhai Patel stepped down he pulled a surprising move.  He quit INC and joined an insurgent INC splinter party KLP which was based on the Patel as well as rural farmer interests.  Chimanbhai Patel claimed that he was forced by INC to step down due a campaign by his INC rival Madhav Singh Solanki as part of a campaign against Patels in the INC.

 

As a result the 1975 Gujarat assembly election became a 3 way battle between Madhav Singh Solanki led INC, INC(O) led JM, Chimanbhai Patel KLP.    JM was led by Babubhai J. Patel who was the Gujarat leader of INC(O)


 
The result was a narrow victory for JM as KLP seems to have taken votes from both INC and JM.

Gujarat 1975 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             182              75                40.70%

INC rebel                          0                 1.05%

JM              178              88                40.20% (led by INC(O) with BJS, BLD, RMP, and SOP)

JM rebel                           2                  0.47%

KLP             147              17               14.11%

With no bloc with a majority, Chimanbhai Patel led KLP to join JM alliance and backed Babubhai J. Patel to be the first non-INC CM of Gujarat although Babubhai J. Patel  is part of the old Gujarat INC and now leader of the INC(O).

Defeat in Gujarat and an adverse decision in the Indian supreme court against Indira Gandhi lead Indira Gandhi and INC to impose a state of emergency that lasted from 1975-1977.  Most of the excesses of the Emergency that hit Northern India did not impact Gujarat given INC did not control the state government.  In late 1976  Babubhai J. Patel's JM government was dismissed and Madhav Singh Solanki installed as CM of Gujarat by the central government.  

Soon after that the 1977 LS election was called.  All the JM component parties including KLP merged into JNP to take on INC.  The result of the LS election was a shock victory for JNP, especially in Northern India.  In Gujarat the inelastic nature of the state was on display as INC was defeated but only by a small margin and was a replication of 1971 LS elections with part of the 1975 KLP vote going back to INC.  The fact that the Emergency did not affect Gujarat played a large part in the results.

Gujarat 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC             26                10               46.92%

INC rebel                          0                 0.29%

JNP             26                16               49.54%

JNP rebel                          0                 0.76%

With the JNP winning the 1977 LS elections and JNP's Morarji Desai (who was from INC(O) of Gujarat as pointed out before) becoming India's new PM, Madhav Singh Solanki's INC government in Gujarat was dismissed and Babubhai J. Patel's JNP government re-instated.

[jaichind]

After JNP came to power at the center cracks began in the JNP and by 1979 JNP split with an anti-BJS anti-Morarji Desai pro-Charan Singh JNP(S) being formed and pulling down the government.  In the meantime INC(U) split from INC.  As a result the 1980 LS election was called with INC easily crushing its divided rivals.

Gujarat 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               25                54.84%

JNP             26                1                 36.89%

JNP rebel                        0                   0.69%

INC(U)+      23               0                   4.85% (JNP(S) and CPI were part of INC(U)+)

BJP which is the post-JNP incarnation of BJS split from JNP soon after the 1980 LS elections which brought Indira Gandhi's INC back to power.  Soon the 1980 Gujarat assembly election came and the result was an expected INC landslide with the opposition vote split between JNP BJP and INC(U)-JNP(S).

Gujarat 1980 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             182            141               51.04%

INC rebel                         2                 1.31%

JNP+          169              28               26.51%

JNP rebel                         1                 0.80%

BJP+          130               9                14.34%

INC(U)+      61                1                 1.93% (JNP(S) and CPI were part of INC(U))

The Gujarat 1980 assembly election results is a carbon copy of the Gujarat 1972 Assembly election with 1980 JNP playing the 1972 INC(O).  Of course INC managed the vote share in 1980 similar to the 1972 Assembly election despite losing key Patel leaders like  Chimanbhai Patel and Babubhai J. Patel.  This was accomplished under the leadership of Madhav Singh Solanki whose son Bharatsinh Madhavsinh Solanki is still the head of INC in Gujarat today.   He managed to do this with something called the KHAM theory.   KHAM stands for Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim.  Kshatriya are the Upper castes, Harijan are Dalits, and Adivasi are tribals.  Madhav Singh Solanki who went on to be a key INC leader and INC CM of Gujarat throughout most of 1980s postulated that the Patel vote was lost to the INC for a generation or two and that to win INC has to focus on the KHAM social blocs.  He was successful in consolidating these voting bloc for INC and with the opposition splintered was able to deliver landslide after landslide for the INC in the 1980s.

[jaichind]

The return to power by Indira Gandhi's INC in 1980 created its own anti-incumbency and it seems that INC might have a tough time in the next round of elections in 1985.  The assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 changed that creating a massive pro-INC sympathy wave along with INC organized anti-Sikh violence.  The various opposition parties (JNP BJP LKD (renamed from JNP(S)) tried to no avail to form a united front to take on INC but in Gujarat they managed to do so.  But it was to no avail against the pro-INC wave buttressed by the KHAM social coalition.

Gujarat 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               24              53.24%

INC rebel                         0                1.83%

JNP+          26                 2              39.99%  (BJP and LKD were part of JNP+)


When the Gujarat 1985 Assembly election came around the JNP and BJP could not even manage to form an alliance with the expected INC landslide that ensued as a result, again, based on the KHAM social coalition. 

Gujarat 1985 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            182            149               55.55%

INC rebel                        1                 0.51%

JNP+         154              19               22.00%

JNP rebel                        1                 1.57%

BJP+         134              12               16.16%

BJP rebel                        0                0.41%

[jaichind]

After the INC landslides of 1984-1985 the opposition regrouped as INC itself fell into decline with scandal after scandal.  JNP, LKD, and VP Singh's INC splinter JM merged into JD while a rump JNP remained.  As 1989 LS election approached JD and BJP formed tactical alliances across Northern India on a seat by seat basis while JD formed similar alliance with CPM-CPI.  In Gujarat the JD-BJP alliance was full blown and the result was a crushing defeat for INC even as INC was beaten but not crushed across Northern India.

Gujarat 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26                3               37.16%

INC rebel                         0                 0.38%

JD+             26              23               58.27%  (BJP was part of JD+)

JNP               5                0                 0.16%

DMM             7                0                 0.70%  (local Dalit-Muslim outfit)

The BJP performed better than JD in the seats they contested and that should have been a warning sign to JD on what is to come.  At then national level VP Singh's JD formed a minority government with outside support from both BJP and the Left Front.  A year later when the Gujarat 1990 Assembly election came around, once again the JD-BJP alliance fell apart and then ran separately.    This should have given the INC the chance to survive, but such was the swing against INC since the 1980s, plus anti-INC tactical voting by JD and BJP voting blocs, and large INC rebellion that INC came in a poor third in a 3 way race.

Gujarat 1990 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           182             33                30.85%

INC rebel                         4                  2.23%

JD+             160             74                31.27%

JD rebel                           0                  0.54%
JNP               82               0                  0.55%

BJP+           164             70                29.26%

BJP rebel                        0                   0.22%

YVP              61              1                   0.85%  (regional party)

With neither JD or BJP with a majority and JD slightly stronger than BJP, a JD-BJP government was formed under the familiar face of now JD CM Chimanbhai Patel who was INC CM back in the 1970s before a falling out and eventual defection to JNP which became JD.  

Chimanbhai Patel can see that he enemy of the future was the BJP so the JD-BJP alliance did not last long.  Within months Chimanbhai Patel broke with the national JD and formed JD(G) and took most of the entire JD organization with him in late 1990.  He then broke off the JD-BJP government and formed an alliance with his old party the INC.  He then formed a JD(G)-INC government with himself continuing as  CM.  

At the national level the JD government fell when BJP withdrew support in 1991 while SJP also split from JNP.    As a result LS election ensued which was going the BJP's way in Northern India until Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in the middle of the election produced a pro-INC wave in the seats that voted after that event.  In Gujarat INC-JD(G) ran as allies to take on the BJP but Gujarat voted before the assassination so the result went BJP's way as the Upper Caste and Patel vote went over to the BJP.  

Gujarat 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+            26                6                42.06%   (JD(G) was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                  1.00%

BJP              26              20                50.37%

JD               24               0                  3.42%

SJP             19                0                  0.57%

YVP             11                0                  0.26%

JD(G) took the entire JD organization with it so JD and SJP vote completely collapsed as Gujarat reverted to a bipolar nature of election results.   The Gujarat 1991 LS election was a groundbreaking election as it was the first time the BJP won on its own and the BJP will win every Gujarat (LS and assembly) election from this election on.  In that sense the Gujarat 1991 LS election was the realigning election of Gujarat election history.  Despite a setup in Gujarat, the sympathy wave for INC in the rest of India that voted after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination was able to bring INC to power again at the center.

[jaichind]

As the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election approached INC-JD(G) was facing anti-incumbency at both the center and state level.  What INC-JD(G) counted on with the fact that the union of INC and JD(G) vote bases most likely still exceeded that of the BJP, especially in rural areas, and that the 1991 BJP victory in the LS elections was a fluke.  Also Chimanbhai Patel was a mass leader with appeal that can pull in the Patel vote.  Unfortunately for INC-JD(G), Chimanbhai Patel passed away in 1994 leaving JD(G) without a mass leader.  Leaderless, JD(G) merged into INC in 1995 to take on the BJP in  Gujarat 1995 Assembly election.  This merged created mass indigestion where a large number of JD(G) incumbents had to be accommodated in which frigged mass rebelling in the existing INC structure.  As a result INC was defeated in the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election due to a massive number of INC rebels and despite the fact that BJP had a significant number of rebels as well.

Gujarat 1995 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           182             45               32.96%

INC rebel                       15                10.25%

BJP             182            121               42.51%

BJP rebel                         1                 3.16%

JD               115              0                 2.82%

BSP             115              0                 1.60%

With this election BJP finally accomplished its long cherished dream since the 1969 Gujarat riots catapulted BJS as powerful force of coming to power in Gujarat.  But as soon as power came problems came for the BJP.  There were two top contenders for BJP CM of Gujarat.  Namely Shankersinh Vaghela

 

and Keshubhai Patel



Shankersinh Vaghela had slight more support in the BJP caucus but Shankersinh Vaghela's chief lieutenant Narendra Modi who he had a Brown-Blair like relationship backed Keshubhai Patel. 



Narendra  Modi masterminded the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election BJP campaign so he had a lot of political clout as a result. The central BJP also seem to back Keshubhai Patel who as a result became CM.

This setup did not last long.  Within months Shankersinh Vaghela and his faction threatened to bolt from the BJP.  A compromise solution was found.  Keshubhai Patel stepped down as CM and Dilip Parikh who was close to  Shankersinh Vaghela was installed as CM instead.  Narendra  Modi who now became Shankersinh Vaghela primary enemy because of his "betryal" was exiled from Gujart to work for the central BJP in New Delhi. 

By this time Narendra Modi has already created his own faction with the Gujarat BJP and despite his exile, his chief lieutenant and upcoming BJP superstar Amit Shah continued to cultivate the  Narendra Modi faction despite Modi's exile from Gujarat



This arrangement continued until the 1996 LS elections.  In the time since the Gujarat 1995 Assembly elections a significant number of INC rebels have defected to the BJP so the BJP should be set for a easy landslide victory in Gujarat.  But due to infighting between the Shankersinh Vaghela, Keshubhai Patel and Narenda Modi factions the BJP managed only a narrow victory despite an India wide wave against INC as well as a India wide INC rebel party in the form of AIIC(T).

Gujarat 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26              10               38.69%

INC rebel                         0                 1.20%
AIIC(T)        19                0                 1.88%

BJP              26              16               48.52%

BJP rebel                         0                2.42%

JD               15                0                0.42%

BSP             17               0                 0.38%

GAVP            4                0                 1.66%  (tribal based Gujart regional party)

Nationwide INC was ousted and a JD+ minority government was formed with outside support from INC.   In Gujarat Shankersinh Vaghela lost his LS seat as part the slight setback to BJP in Gujart and Shankersinh Vaghela explicitly blamed Keshubhai Patel and Narenda Modi for sabotage for his defeat.  As a result he and his faction bolted from BJP and formed RJP.  INC decided to back RJP and the RJP-INC formed a majority with  Shankersinh Vaghela becoming CM. 

The RJP-INC government lasted for a year before RJP-INC relationship deteriorated  to the point where in 1997 INC threatened to pull support from  Shankersinh Vaghela.  A compromised was then worked out where Shankersinh Vaghela lieutenant and RJP's Dilip Parikh became CM instead of Shankersinh Vaghela and INC support continued.  This lasted a year until early 1998 when INC decided to pull the plug for support for Dilip Parikh  and midterm elections for Gujarat assembly elections were called.  At the same time the JD+ government also fell at the center due to INC pulling support so midterm LS elections were also called.  So for the first time since 1967 Gujarat will have simultaneous elections for both LS and assembly.

[jaichind]

The Gujarat 1998 LS and Assembly election was a 3 way race between INC BJP and RJP.  The result was a victory for the BJP as while RJP took some votes from BJP it also took some votes from INC as well.

Gujarat 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+            26              7                36.68%

BJP               26            19                48.28%

RJP               20             0                10.21%

JD                15             0                  2.94%

SP                 9              0                 0.53%



Gujarat 1998 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          182             54              35.25%

INC rebel                        2                1.94%

BJP             182           117              44.81%

BJP rebel                        0                1.23%

RJP             168              4              11.68%
 
JD                                  4               2.63%

SP                                 1                0.40%


With the BJP victory Keshubhai Patel returned to power as the BJP CM of Gujarat.  After the 1998 election where the Shankersinh Vaghela's RJP was soundly defeated he merged RJP into INC with Shankersinh Vaghela as a top INC leader with his own separate faction within INC.   At the center BJP led NDA won enough support to form a government at the center.

In 1999 another midterm LS election took place due to AIADMK withdrew support from the NDA government.  NCP also split from INC as part of this political realignment.   The result showed that some of the RJP vote stayed with INC but a lot of it went back to BJP as Gujarat elections reverted to its bipolar nature.

Gujarat 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               6                  45.44%

NCP                               0                    0.52%

BJP             26             20                  52.48%

JD(U)                            0                    0.40%

[jaichind]

As the next Gujarat  Assembly election approached it was clear that the BJP was in trouble.  The Keshubhai Patel government was seen as ineffective especially during the 2000 gujarat earthquake.  In a bunch of by-elections in 2001 the BJP was trounced by the INC and all signs points to a INC comeback in 2002.  To cut its loses the BJP removed Keshubhai Patel  from the role and brought back Narendra Modi from exile in New Delhi to take over as CM.  Despite his clear organizational abilities Narendra Modi was controversial and had a lot of enemies in the Gujarat BJP, especially from the Keshubhai Patel faction bitter that their leader was removed.  It was not at all clear that Narendra Modi  would be able turn the situation around.  Then in Feb 2002, a year before when the assembly election was due, a massive Hindu-Mulsim riot broke out which turned into a de facto anti-Muslim poprom.





 It is said that Modi was behind this riot but there has not been any definitive proof.  It is clear that Narendra Modi  worked to take political advantage of the Hindu-Muslim polarization.  During the riots Dalits which have traditionally voted INC took part in the anti-Muslim riots and became polarized toward the BJP which Narendra Modi  worked to cultivate.  Narendra Modi worked to call the assembly election early to scoop up the Hindu votes.  The election was expected to be close but the result was a surprising BJP landslide.

Gujarat 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182              51              39.53%  (CPM was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        1                1.58%
NCP            81                0                1.71%

BJP           182             127              49.85%

BJP rebel                        1                1.04%

JD(U)         29                2                0.86%

BNP           26                0                 1.15%

BSP           34                0                 0.32%



In areas unaffected by the riots there was a clear swing toward the INC from 1998.  But in riot affected areas there was a Hindu consolidation for BJP who pretty much sweep all the seats.  This seem to indicate that without the riots the INC most likely would have won a 2002 or 2003 assembly election.  So just like the 1969 riots started the BJS rise the 2002 riots saved the BJP government.

The Narendra Modi government ended up being a much more efficient and effective government than the Keshubhai Patel government.  As the 2004 LS election approached, given the perception that the BJP was popular nationally, the INC in a rut after the 2002 defeat, and the perception of Narendra Modi's government's effectiveness there was a view that the BJP would win a landslide victory in Gujarat and could end up with all 26 seats.  INC did managed to get NCP to join INC in an alliance so the old INC vote base would not be split.  The result was the BJP was defeated nationally in an upset and in Gujarat the bipolar and nonelastic nature of elections created only a very narrow victory for the BJP and a humiliation Narendra Modi given his pre-election boastful talks of total victory.

Gujarat 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         26                12               45.02%

BJP            26                14               47.37%

BSP           20                  0                1.48%

BNP            3                  0                0.90%

JD(U)         4                  0                 0.86%

SP            11                  0                 0.53%

[jaichind]

The period after INC recapture power at the center in 2004 was one of fairly rapid economic growth in India and Gujarat under Narendra Modi also saw its share of rapid economic development which in many ways should have given the BJP the upper hand in the Gujarat 2007 Assembly elections despite and unexpectedly weak performance in the 2004 LS elections.  Still INC was banking on the return of the Dalit vote as the polarization from the 2002 wore off as well as continued alliance with NCP.  Furthermore Keshubhai Patel who was sidelined by Narendra Modi in the BJP actually passively endorsed INC and for sure backed various BJP rebels.  BJS which is a MP based BJP splinter also ran to split the BJP vote.  All this gave INC some hope of closing the gap significantly from 2002.   The Gujarat 2007 Assembly election ended in a victory for the BJP with a very similar margin compared to 2002 in a sign that the Hindu-Muslim polarization remained while Narendra Modi  strong economic record did give the BJP an added boost.

Gujarat 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182               63               39.49%  (NCP and CPM were part of INC+)

INC rebel                         1                 1.49%

BJP           182             117                49.12%

BJP rebel                        0                  1.21%
BJS           37                 0                  0.64%

JD(U)        35                 1                  0.66%

BSP         166                 0                  2.62%


In the 2009 LS elections the national trend seems to be even between INC and BJP before and in the end the BJP did gain a bit of ground but INC overall surprised on the upside by keeping it close despite a lack of an alliance with NCP.  BJP itself had a local splinter MJP.  Nationally INC also won by a surprising margin.  

Gujarat 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26              11               43.38%

INC rebel                        0                  0.40%
NCP               7               0                  0.30%

BJP             26               15               46.52%

MJP             16                0                1.40%

BSP             24               0                 1.62%

SP              13                0                 0.45%

JD(U)          2                0                  0.41%

[jaichind]

The Gujarat 2012 Assembly election was seen as a litmus test for Narenda Modi in his ambition to capture control of the BJP and becoming the BJP candidate for PM in 2014 LS elections.  If he can lead the BJP to a solid victory in 2012 then he will have the credibility to be able to pull this off.  He had the challenge of dealing with a Keshubhai Patel led BJP rebel party in the form of GPP.  MJP had merged into GPP.  It was expected that GPP would pull away a large bloc of the BJP vote and make the race a 50/50 race between BJP and INC.  In the end Modi pulled off another solid victory.  

Gujarat 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         180               63              39.69%    (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                0.82%

BJP           182             115              47.86%

BJP rebel                        1                 1.18%
GPP          167                2                 3.63%

JD(U)         65                1                 0.67%

BSP          165               0                  1.25%




As expected, after this solid BJP win Modi was able to become the BJP PM candidate for the 2014 LS election.  The macro environment got from bad to worse for the INC during 2013-2014 and as a result INC was crushed in a landslide victory for the BJP led NDA in 2014 LS elections.  In Gujarat due to the landslide and favorite son effect the BJP was finally able to break open the distance between itself and INC and win all 26 seats in a high turnout election

Gujarat 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          26                 0               34.40%

BJP             26               26               60.11%

AAP            24                 0                1.19%

BSP            24                 0                0.96%

JD(U)         12                 0                0.40%

Narenda Modi as a result became PM of India and Anandiben Patel took over from Narendra Modi as CM of Gujarat.  

In many way as the Gujarat 2007 Assembly election approached both BJP and INC were beset with many problems.  BJP had to deal with a Patel demand for reservations led by Patel leader Hardik Patel



Not being able to deal with that crisis, Anandiben Patel was removed as  CM  replaced with Vijay Rupani.  Vijay Rupani had to deal with Dalit protests which are still ongoing.  The BJP will most likely lose both Patel and Dalit votes in the upcoming election.  

For INC, first AAP has decided to target Gujarat for expansion and for sure will cut into the INC vote. Second, the INC-NCP alliance broke down and NCP will run separately from INC.  Third, Shankersinh Vaghela, BJP rebel turned RJP leader turned INC leader has recently left INC after his ultimatum of being made the CM candidate for INC was turned down.  Shankersinh Vaghela has formed JV and will run a third front perhaps bring in NCP into it.

It is clear that there will be a swing from BJP to INC.  But the INC will set its vote share split by AAP, NCP and JV.  Another question is how will Hardik Patel's movement act in the election.  Will it endorse INC or join up with JV.  The answers to these questions will determine the outcome to the election.  

My take is the split of the anti-BJP vote will be enough for the BJP to win but with a narrow majority.  Talk of a BJP landslide is unlikely to take place given the loss of the Dalit and Patel vote for the BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalheraldindia.com/amp/story/politics%252Fbjp-will-lose-in-gujarat-mp-rss-survey



Photo by Virendra Singh Gosain/Hindustan Times via Getty ImagesPhoto by Virendra Singh Gosain/Hindustan Times via Getty Images
POLITICS
BJP will lose in Gujarat, MP: RSS Survey
By Pankaj Mishra
September 26, 2017 at 1:53 PM
A bad phase for the BJP has started in the states of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh (MP). It may win 100 or even less seats in the coming Assembly elections in MP. The survey conducted by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has stated that the Congress may win 120 or more seats in Madhya Pradesh while the BJP will hardly manage 57-60 seats. The survey indicates at least 10 per cent decrease in the BJP’s vote share. The RSS survey shows that the Congress is in quite a strong position in Gujarat. The RSS has handed over the report of this survey to the BJP president and the Prime Minister.

BJP’S VOTE SHARE MAY DECREASE BY 8 TO 10 PER CENT IN GUJARAT

The RSS conducted this survey in Gujarat to gauge the pulse of the voters but the results shocked even the RSS. They show a definite decrease in the vote share of BJP by 8 to 10 per cent. The main cause for this decrease in vote share is the anger amongst backward communities due to the changes in the process of reservation. On the other hand, the Kunbi Patidar vote bank of the BJP also seems to be drifting away because of the death of 14 people during the Patidar Anamat Movement.

The socio-political scenario in Gujarat which came to the fore in the survey clearly tells us that the BJP president and the Prime Minister may get defeated in their home state. In Gujarat, the Koli Machhuara community is 24.22 per cent of the total population, 17.61 are tribals and the Kunbi Patidar Patels form 12.16 per cent of the population. The Dalit percentage is only 7.17 per cent while Muslims are also only 8.53 per cent of the people.

The Koli Machhuara and Kunbi Patidar are politically powerful in western Gujarat (Saurashtra- Kutch. Leua Patels are quite influential in 36 seats of the 58 seats of Saurashtra-Kutch. In 46 seats of Saurashtra and 13 seats of south Gujarat, the Koli-Machhuara community can play a decisive role.

BETRAYAL ON THE PRESIDENT’S CASTE

Possibly, this is the reason why the BJP has been publicising President Ram Nath Kovind as a person belonging to the Koli community instead of the Kori community to which he actually belongs. This may be a ploy to woo the Kolis and fishermen (Machhuaras). Louten Ram Nishad, a social justice scholar and leader of the machhuara community, has this to say, “To publicise Ram Nath Kovid as belonging to the Koli community is a huge deception. It is a part of the BJP’s politics of lies and cheating, because Koris and Kolis are completely different communities.”

The Koli community is almost double the size of Kunbi Patidars in Gujarat but the Patels are politically quite aware and powerful. In south central and north Gujarat, there is no influential Koli leader. Purushottam Bhai Solanki is the only powerful leader but the Koli community is quite annoyed at the way he has been treated. In 2001, he became a minister in the Modi government of the state and is still a state minister in the Rupani state cabinet.

In the last state elections, he had raised the issue of giving Kolis 25 to 30 seats. This time too, the issue of making a Koli leader the chief ministerial face seems to be picking up in Gujarat.

The pre-election survey by the RSS shows that killing of Dalits in Una will seriously damage the BJP.

DEFEAT IS CERTAIN IN MADHYA PRADESH

Even in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP seems to be losing its way. The survey results say that the BJP will not be able to win half the seats that it had won in 2012. The survey shows that the Congress may win more than 120 seats in Madhya Pradesh and BJP may get 57-60 seats.

Recently, Amit Shah had given a target of 160-plus seats during his three-day visit to Madhya Pradesh. The very next day, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that the BJP will win 200 plus seats in the coming Assembly elections. Madhya Pradesh Assembly has a total of 230 seats and the BJP will require 116 seats to come back to power. But the internal survey by the RSS shows the route may not be smooth for the BJP.

VYAPAM MAY WRECK SHIVRAJ’S GOVERNMENT

According to this survey, BJP may get less than 100 seats in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. If the big wigs of the Congress have efficient coordination, then the BJP is sure to lose the election. The Vyapam scam and many sex scandals related to BJP leaders have tarnished the party’s image. The farmers’ movement and death of 6 farmers during the movement, suicide by more than 50 farmers and sending the leader of Narmada Bachao Andolan, Medha Patkar, to jail are some of the issues which will seriously hamper BJP’s path to victory in the elections.

In such a situation, there is a possibility that BJP will fight the election without projecting any chief ministerial candidate. This may be because the party thinks it is very difficult to win an election under the leadership of present Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

(IANS) The views expressed in the above opinion piece are author’s own



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[jaichind]

Gurdaspur in Punjab LS bypoll counting is today (due to BJP MP passed away) with a INC smashing victory

2014 it was

BJP   46.3%
INC   36.2%
AAP   16.6%

Now it is

INC   58.6%
BJP   36.0%
AAP    2.8%

To be fair this by-poll is too close to the INC assembly election victory earlier this year so I count this as more of an after effect of that INC victory than any real trend toward INC at the national level.