India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

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Voting ends in Gujarat.  Exit polls for Gujarat and HP out shortly.

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HP past election results shows that INC and BJP always swaps places.  This time it is BJP's turn

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Economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla has predicted a comfortable win for BJP, according to CNN-News18.

BJP 125
Congress  57

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C-Voter for HP

           Vote share    seats
BJP         47.6           41
INC         44             25
Others      8.3            2

Which is a pretty good result under the circumstances

Back in 2014 LS vote share it was  BJP 54 INC 41

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Times Now Gujarat exit poll
            
           Vote share    seats
BJP        47%            109
INC        41%             70
Others   12%               3

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India Today HP exit poll which is more pro-BJP  (done by India Today-Axis My India )

BJP     51
INC     17
Others  1

(does not make sense as seats add up to 69 and not 68)

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C-Voter exit poll for Gujarat

        Vote share    seats
BJP       47.4%     108
INC       43.3%      74

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Sahara Samay exit poll for Gujarat

BJP    112
INC     68
Others  2

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It looks like the place in Gujarat that the BJP is losing ground is Saurashtra where rural Patels dominate.  If the exit polls holds up then it seems Patles deserted BJP in rural areas but held up for BJP in urban areas.

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Gujarat Times Now exit poll vote share by region

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SAHARA SAMAY-CNX exit poll for HP

BJP      47
INC      21

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TV9 Gujarat exit poll

BJP    108
INC     74

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India Today Gujarat exit poll

BJP      106
INC       75
Other      1

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Republic TV Gujarat exit poll

BJP    115
INC     65
Others  2

Its pre-election survey was

BJP   118
INC    64

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Today's Chanakya   HP exit poll
         
        Vote share        Seats
BJP        51%              55
INC       38%               13
Others   11%

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Overall picture from Gujarat Exit Polls results

Gujarat Exit Poll   BJP      Congress
Times Now         109        70
Republic TV        115        65
Sahara          110-120  65-75
TV-9                  108        74
India Today       99-113   68-82

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News Nation Gujarat exit polls (most pro-BJP so far)

BJP    126
INC     54
Others   2

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News Nation HP exit polls

BJP    45
INC    21
Other   2

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For Gujarat only Today's Chanakya's exit poll is still outsanding

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NDTV poll of exit polls for HP has

BJP    49
INC    18
Others 1




Based on

                          BJP         INC     Other
Newsx               42-50     18-24     0-2
News Nation       43-47     19-23    1-3
Axis                   47-55     13-20    0-2

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Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll   BJP   Congress
Sahara Samay                     46       21
News24                               55      13
India Today                     47-55    13-20

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ABP-CSDS-LOKNITI  Gujarat exit poll

BJP     117
INC      64
Other     1

ABP-CSDS had the most anti-BJP pre-election survey but had one of the most pro-BJP exit poll.

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