India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

It seems that the BJP is in a bit of a panic over the recent turn of events.  There are already several sources that the BJP are reaching out to the BSP through back-channels to see if there can be a 4th BJP-BSP post election alliance (there were such an alliance in 1995, 1996-1997,  and 2002-2003 which all broke down) since it seems that the chances of a BJP majority is getting slimmer.

I am beginning to understand Akhilesh Yadav's strategy to counter the BJP strategy. 

What the BJP was counting on was
a) SP weight down by the burden of incumbency with the SP and BSP splitting the Muslim vote as a result
b) Both Akhilesh Yadav of SP and Mayawati of BSP does not have that great of an image so the election will be a localized battle at the district battle.
c) Demonetization would mean that the BJP will still be flush with resources from corporate donations while SP and BSP which rely in small cash based business would lack the resources to match the BJP at the ground game
d) BJP cannot project a CM candidate for fear of conflict between the Upper Caste and OBC factions so turn the election based on targeted candidates and social coalitions to counter splintered social coalitions of SP BSP and INC at each district where the BJP ground game would be critical.

Akhilesh Yadav decided to counter this with a Trump like asymmetrical warfare  strategy.  By having a public split and battle for control of his party, he creates free publicity for himself and at the same time dump the anti-incumbency anger toward his father Mulayam Singh Yadav.  Last minute alliances with INC RLD also knocks the BJP social coalition calculations off as well as consolidating the Muslim vote.  The same alliance can unleash Priyanka Gandhi and Dimple Yadav  along with himself to turn the election into an election of personalities and away from the ground game that the BJP clearly have an advantage in.   

It is not clear what damage the SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav faction) will do but it seems that a BJP majority now does not see at all assured and most likely we are headed to a hung assembly election result if SP-INC-RLD alliance can be put together. 

[jaichind]

As soon as the ECI ruled in favor of Akhilesh Yadav, he went on a mode to try to reunify SP behind him.  Right away visited his father and antagonist Mulayam Singh Yadav to seek his blessings for he battle he is about to lead SP into and tweeted out a picture of that meeting



It is not clear what Mulayam Singh Yadav is up to or if he will still run candidates against his son's SP.  He seems to be playing two roles, one as antagonist of Akhilesh Yadav and one as father of Akhilesh Yadav.

[jaichind]

Map of 7 phases of voting for UP

[jaichind]

TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll had a vote share poll back in early Jan based on a SP split by Mulayam Singh Yadav with comparison to vote share of Dec 2016

                               Dec 2016             Jan 2016
BJP                              29.4                   30.2
SP                               28.7                   24.9
BSP                             23.4                   24.2
INC                               5.0                    5.8
SP (Mulayam)                                         3.4

Of course this does not take into account of a possible SP-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

Also in early Jan VDPAssociates had an UP poll which had BJP+ with slight advantage but no majority




Which is
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP+           33%            165
SP               31%            149
BSP             23%              76
INC              4%                 4

With regional breakdown



The same poll also looked at what would take place if SP-INC formed an alliance.  And it had




Which is

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP+           35%            170
SP-INC        34%            160
BSP             22%              64
 
It seems some Dalit votes would go from BSP to BJP+ in response to SP-INC alliance.  I am surprised that BSP would only lose 12 seats in such a scenario.

[jaichind]

Early Jan VDPAssociates poll on Uttarakhand shows a landslide for BJP




Which is
               
             Vote Share     Seats
BJP             44%           50
INC            34%           15
BSP              7%            2
Others       15%            3

INC might still come up with an alliance UKD and other pro-INC independents.  If they do pull that off they might avoid a landslide of this scale.

[jaichind]

Early Jan VDPAssociates poll on Goa shows BJP close to majority




Which is
                   
              Vote share              Seats
BJP               38%                   20
INC              29%                   11
AAP                9%                    3
MGP+             7%             }
GFP                6%             }      6
Others          11%             }

It seems that MGP+ is, as expected, taking votes away from BJP while AAP seems to to taking votes from INC.  Note that it is still possible for INC to form an alliance with NCP (which is under Others right now) and GFP.  If they do then it will become neck-to-neck between BJP and INC+.

[jaichind]

In UP, it seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav has mostly given up and accepted that Akhilesh Yadav has taken over SP.  He gave a list of 38 candidates to Akhilesh Yadav asking that they be accommodated by on the SP list and in return he will agree to campaign for SP and not run his separate slate of candidates. 

This is taking place in the nick of time because the next phase for Akhilesh Yadav is to lock down the Grand alliance.  Based on rumors this alliance will be quite large.  It will include INC and RLD of course, but also it will, based on rumors, include AD(Krishna Patel faction), PECP, JD(U), RLD. AITC, NCP, and NP (which is a OBC caste based party.)  Of course  JD(U), RLD. AITC, NCP, and NP have influence in UP in tiny pockets and each will be given 1 or 2 seats.  To accommodate all these parties SP will have to give up at least 125 out of 403 seats (90 for INC, 20 for RLD, 15 for rest.)  There will be blowback within SP so making sure SP rebels does have Mulayam Singh Yadav is critical.  Also doing this alliance last minute causes problems but makes sure that SP INC and RLD rebels cannot run to BJP or BSP since both those parties has mostly locked down their candidate lists and could only run as independents.

The BJP is clearly rattled by these developments and many BJP leaders privately concede that SP will most likely emerge as the largest party after the election and that a BJP majority now seems unlikely.  It also came out that late last week the BJP, seeing the Grand Alliance about to take shape,  tried to lure RLD to join the BJP alliance and was turned down by RLD.  Sensing weakness, BJP ally AD and SBSP are both racketing up their demands of seats from BJP.  SBSP in fact is entering into talks with SP to add pressure on BJP.   

If Akhilesh Yadav can pull of this Grand Alliance with minimal rebellion and then go on to win the UP elections then he would have pulled off a startling political comeback from Oct 2016.  In late 2016 he was seen as a weak puppet CM as party of a party that will crash to third place with BJP and BSP fighting for power.  Now in a matter of 3 weeks through his political stratagems he is about to pull off something that was not been done in 1985 in UP assembly politics, win re-election. 

[jaichind]

It seems in Goa due to factional battles INC failed to have an alliance with NCP and will have some tactical understanding GFP in some seats.  Failure to lock up an INC-NCP-GFP means that BJP will have a slight edge over INC despite MAG-GSM-SHS running on its own since AAP and NCP will also eat into the INC base. 

[jaichind]

Articles like

"Why BJP Loss Would Be Only Surprise Of 2017 UP Poll"

http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/why-bjp-loss-would-be-only-surprise-of-2017-up-poll-95269

are claiming that the BJP will for sure win the UP assembly elections given the BJP-AD performance of 2014 LS elections with 43.6% vote share means that even if SP-INC-RLD ties up they would only have 30% of the vote based on their 2014 LS election results.  It points out that it would take a massive swing for BJP to lose.  It uses Bihar as an example.  In 2014 LS elections BJP+ (BJP+LJP+RLSP) won 39.5% of the vote and won 35% in the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections in a losing effort against the JD(U)-RJD-INC Grand Alliance.  This is a swing of 4.5% which if applied to the UP results would still mean that BJP+ will win 39% of the vote and ensure a large BJP victory in UP.

The problem with this analysis it it ignores the Delhi experience.  It correctly points out that 2013 Delhi Assembly elections BJP+ won 34.2% and won 32.7% in the 2015 landslide defeat at the hands of AAP and that the BJP defeat was only because the consolidation of the anti-BJP vote and that the BJP vote base was intact.  What they do not point out is that 2014 LS election BJP won 46.6% of the vote so a 2014 to 2015 BJP+ swing was quite massive (-13.9%).

For Bihar I think the 2014 to 2015 negative swing of -4.5% for BJP+ is accurate but missed the fact that HAM split from JD(U) from 2014 to join BJP+ in 2015.  Assuming that it brought over 1%-2% vote share with them the swing against BJP+ is more like 6%-7% in Bihar.

Looking at by-elections in UP in 2014 2015 and 2016 that took place after 2014 LS elections seems to indicate the upcoming assembly elections might be more like Delhi than Bihar.  Of course Indian assembly level by-elections tend to favor the incumbant party since voters would want an MLA of the ruling party to get them the pork.  So by definition SP will do better in these by-elections all things equal.  Also BSP boycotted these elections which also gives the SP an advantage of consolidating the anti-BJP vote but should in theory artificially push up the BJP vote as well.  With that in mind looking the number of votes per party for the UP districts that had by-elections in 2014 2015 2016 and comparing them to 2012 and 2014 LS results in those districts seems to imply that the BJP is on track to do a good deal better in 2017 than 2012 but the 2014 BJP vote was a one time surge which is unlikely to be repeated.  Some example by-election results which had higher turnout (which makes them more representative and predictive) are


Saharanpur Nagar   2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (large BJP surge, some decline)
BJP                            85K       134K          108K
INC                           73K       110K            29K
BSP                           36K        15K            
SP                             20K          7K            82K
Total                        219K     269K           221K

Bijnor                     2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (large BJP surge, then bipolar polarization)
BJP                            69K       96K            90K
BSP                           51K        52K
RLD                           47K         9K
SP                             25K        68K          102K
MD                              6K
PECP                                         4K              3K
INC                                                             3K
                              209K        234K         204K

Thakurdwara          2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (tiny BJP surge, then revert to 2012)
BJP                           84K        95K            84K
MD                           47K                          13K
INC                          47K          3K             17K
BSP                         26K         28K
SP                              6K        96K          111K
PECP                                        3K
Total                      220K       231K          232K

Nighasan              2012    2014LS    2014 by-election  (tiny BJP surge which remained)
BJP                         75K        85K            84K
SP                          44K        33K          103K
BSP                        36K        42K
INC                        16K        35K              7K
PECP                        9K
MD                           7K
CPI                                        4K
Total                    206K      203K         200K

Balha                  2012    2014LS    2014 by-election  (significant BJP surge, some dropoff)
BJP                       59K       85K              74K
BSP                      39K        28K
SP                        35K        61K             99K
INC                      21K          7K               6K
SBSP                                                       3K
JHSP                                   3K
Total                   177K      190K          186K

Charkhari           2012    2014LS    2014 by-election   2015 by-election (BJP surge and decline)
BJP                       67K       82K              39K                         41K    
SP                        41K       36K               95K                         82K
BSP                      41K       42K
INC                      22K       21K              44K                          37K
SP rebel                                                  9K
Total                  192K      193K            193K                       168K

Pharenda            2012    2014LS    2015 by-election  (BJP surge and then decline)
BJP                       48K       71K              41K
INC                       35K       16K             56K
BSP                      34K       44K
SP                        26K       36K              65K
PECP                    23K
Total                   182K      181K           172K

Of course we had a few 2016 by-elections where turnout fell but the BJP total vote experience wild swings mostly due to elections taking place in areas of Jat-Muslim communal riots in 2013 leading to a massive Jat and OBC consolidation for BJP in 2014 followed by decline of BJP in some places

Muzaffar Nagar      2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (huge BJP surge followed by decline)
SP                           59K       14K             58K
BJP                          44K     129K             65K
BSP                         32K       64K
INC                         21K         5K             11K
PECP                         7K         2K              
RLD                                                        15K
Total                      169K     215K          155K

Deoband               2012    2014LS    2016 by-election  (mega BJP surge some of which survived)
SP                           67K       11K            47K
BSP                         64K       46K
INC                         45K       67K            51K
BJP                         10K      104K            46K
BMK                                                       17K  (BMK is a Dalit based party and won BSP votes)
Total                      196K     232K          169K

Bikapur                 2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (tidal wave BJP surge followed by collapse)
SP                          55K        36K            69K
BSP                        53K        35K    
RLD                       38K                           62K
PECP                      20K         1K               3K
BJP                         14K      104K           12K
INC                                      24K             3K
AIMIM                                                    12K
Total                    202K       208K         168K

Bilari                   2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (BJP surge followed by bipolar polarization)
SP                        56K         65K            90K
BSP                      54K         46K
BJP                      17K          77K            83K
RPD                     16K           7K
MD                      15K
PECP                   14K           2K
RLD                     11K
INC                                      2K              4K
Total                 189K       202K          182K

Jangipur            2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (BJP surge followed by bipolar polarization)
SP                       72K        59K             82K
BSP                     63K        49K
SBSP                   22K
BJP                      10K        60K            60K
INC                       8K          3K              7K
RPD                                     8K
BJP rebel                              4K
Total                 186K        191K         161K

Overall BJP surge in 2014 has fallen off in many places and are only kept up in cases where the race becomes SP vs BJP where BJP wins over some of the BSP vote.

[jaichind]

Looks like SP-INC alliance is on.  SP to contest 298 seats and INC 105 seats.  In the end there was too much pressure within SP to unify the  Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav factions to give up enough seats to RLD. 

What SP wanted to do was to give around 100 seats to INC and told INC it is free to allocate seats to RLD from its quota.  INC was willing to give 20 out of its quota to RLD but RLD insisted on at least 35 seats.  So a SP-INC-RLD deal feel apart.  Then after all sorts of hectic talks SP and INC agreed to 298/105.  I think SP's logic was that in Western UP where RLD is strong Muslims are still hostile to Jats given Jat-Muslims communal riots of 2013.  This time around SP was certain that Jats, which went to BJP in 2014, are repelled from BJP due to the Jat reservation issue.  So an SP alliance with RLD could lose it Muslims votes while RLD outside the alliance will not ally with BJP nor will the Jat vote go BJP.  So SP fancy its chances in Western UP where it will be SP-INC (Yadav Muslims and some OBCs) vs BJP (Upper Castes and some OBCs) vs RLD (Jats) vs BSP (Dalits) or at least feel that neither BJP nor RLD will sweep the field.

I guess there are still chances that SP and INC will give up a few seats from their respective quotas to accommodate various minor parties like RJD JD(U) AD(Krishna Patel faction) PECP AITC NCP NP etc etc.  Most likely JD(U) will ally with RLD so they will be out. 

[jaichind]

In Uttarakhand, long time but disgraced (due to various sex scandals last few years) INC leader ND Tiwari aged 91 has joined BJP to secure a ticket for his son

 

ND Tiwari who is a key INC Brahmin leader was INC CM of UP 3 times in the 1970s and 1980s.  He was also CM of Uttarakhand in 2002-2007.  So with ND Tiwari joining BJP and former INC Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna (whose father was also a INC UP CM back in the 1970s) joining BJP during the 2016 Uttarakhand Constitutional crisis every CM in Uttarakhand's history is now in BJP except for the incumbent INC CM Harish Rawat.  

The BJP strategy in Uttarakhand this year, which is the same as UP,  not project a CM candidate due to factional conflict and to recruit/poach local leaders from other parties (from INC in Uttarakhand, and from BSP SP and INC in UP) to try to win a localized race.   At least 20 out of the 70 BJP candidates in Uttarakhand are, until fairly recently, members of INC.  The running joke is that that  Uttarakhand BJP should be renamed "Modi's INC."  This strategy is most likely to work in  Uttarakhand  where the INC CM candidate Harish Rawat does not seem to have dynamic or mass appeal but will not work as well in UP given the Akhilesh Yadav factor which will tend to make the election in UP less localized.

[jaichind]

In the Rahul Gandhi's pocket borough of Amethi we are most likely to  see a battle of "Wife vs Wife."  
Everything centers around one Sanjay Singh who is from the Amethi royal family and is known as "Raja of Amethi."  



Sanjay Singh was in the INC in the 1970s and 1980s and was quite close to the Gandhi clan.  When his relative and former INC UP CM VP Singh bolted from INC and formed JD he defected to JD and was a member of the VP Singh JD cabinet.  He then defected to BJP and won from Amethi in the 1998 LS election.  He even ran against Sonia Gandhi on the BJP ticket in 1999 in a losing effort.    Later he defected back to the INC and became a key member of the INC team in UP.  He is currently an INC MP in the RS.

Sanjay Singh is married to one Garima Singh



But back in 1988 Sanjay Singh was implicated in the murder of his good friend and famous badminton player Syed Modi.  It seems that Sanjay Singh was having an affair with Syed Modi's wife Amita Kulkarni and both of them plotted to murder Syed Modi.  

Picture of Sanjay Singh with Amita Kulkarni.


In the end Sanjay Singh and Amita Kulkarni were acquitted of murder charges after years of investigations and trials.  

Sanjay Singh then proceeded divorce his current wife Garima Singh and married Amita Kulkarni.   Garima Singh claims that the divorce was not final and claims that Sanjay Singh's marriage to Amita Kulkarni is null and void.  Sanjay Singh and then tried to get the courts to throw Garima Singh and their children out of the palace he lives in.



And is an ongoing court case.  

Anyway.  It seems that Garima Singh has joined BJP who will field her in the Amethi seats.  Amita Kulkarni as Sanjay Singh's de facto wife won in Amethi in 2002 running for BJP and won in 2007 running for INC.  She ran as INC candidate in 2012 and lost to SP.   SP-INC alliance will most likely grant Amethi to INC who will most likely field Amita Kulkarni.  So the election will be "Wife vs Wife."

[jaichind]

THE WEEK-Hansa Research poll has hung assemblies for UP Punjab and Goa with slight BJP majority in  Uttarakhand



In UP it has

BJP         37%      194  
SP-INC    33%     180
BSP         22%       22
Others      8%         7

Here it seems to predict the collapse of BSP Muslim base to INC-SP and the Non-Jadav Dalits to BJP.  If this were come to pass the BJP will form the majority by breaking BSP where at least 15 out of 22 MLAs (way more than the 1/3 threshold to trigger the ant-defection law)  will defect to BJP to get ministries.

In Punjab it has

INC            36%  50
AAP            32%  34
SAD-BJP     28%  29
Others         4%    4

If this were come to pass most likely another election is necessary where it will become INC vs AAP.


In Uttarakhand it has

BJP           54%     38
INC          40%     28
BSP            3%      2
Others        3%      2

For a slight BJP majority which would be consistent with narrow  Uttarakhand  majorities in 2002 2007 and 2012.  Of course if the BJP vote share lead over INC is 54%-40% there is no way INC can win 28 seats.  Something wrong with this poll.  I think it is a typo and the BJP vote share is 44% and not 54%


In Goa it has

BJP                    43%   18
INC                    31%   12
MGP-GSM-SHS     9%     4
AAP                   10%     3
Independents      4%     1
Others                 3%     2

If so BJP will form a majority by buying off some cluster of independents and others.   Again, if BJP leads INC 43% to 31% there is no way INC wins 12 seats.  For a BJP seat lead over INC of 18-12 the vote share lead should be around 4%-5% and not 12%.  Something wrong with this poll.


The results in UP does not seem too badly off although I think it underestimates BSP, as most UP polls usually under-poll BSP especially when they are relegated to third place.  My sense is this poll overestimates the incumbent parties Punjab  Uttarakhand  Goa.  I think SAD-BJP will do worse than these number in Punjab, INC do worse than these numbers in Uttarakhand and BJP might still be the largest party but do worse than these numbers in Goa.

[jaichind]

TNSPIMT polls


UP




SP+INC      201
BJP+          177
BSP             23
Others          2


Pubjab



INC           39.8%       47
AAP           36.3%       43
SAD+BJP   23.9%       26

[jaichind]

News24 UP poll

UP

SP-INC      191
BJP            120
BSP             76
Others        16



Uttarakhand

INC             35
BJP             31
Others          4


Pubjab

SAD-BJP      52
INC             47
AAP            16

[jaichind]

ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS poll for UP



SP-INC     35%     192
BJP          29%      123
BSP         23%        81

[jaichind]

Times Now-VMR UP survey

BJP          34%     202
SP-INC    31%     147
BSP         24%       47
Others     11%        7

[jaichind]

VDPAssociates poll

UP


BJP+           35.00%              207
 BJP             33.80%              207
 AP                0.70%                 0
 SBSP            0.51%                 0

SP-INC        32.00%             128
 SP              24.16%             104
 INC              7.84%               24

BSP            22.11%                58




The caste breakdown are

Given the Jat anti-BJP agitation in Haryana  due to the reservation issue I am surprised that the BJP can win 58% of the Jat vote.  Of course if this is true then the RLD is finished.









Pubjab




AAP         35%    62
INC         33%    44
SAD-BJP  26%      7

[jaichind]

The various UP polls have some with BJP+ and others with SP-INC ahead.  The bad news for BSP is that BSP is in a far third place.  If these polls continue like this it will trigger Muslim tactical voting for SP-INC as well as some Dalit and OBC tactical voting for BJP.  It would not surprise me if both BJP+ and SP-INC to both exceed 35% in such a case.  Usually a vote share of above 30% is enough for victory.  This time that threshold might be 35% if the BSP vote does not hold up.

[jaichind]

The various Punjab polls are all over the place.  There has been polls with INC, AAP, AND SAD-BJP with the lead separately.    I sense that it will be a INC vs AAP battle with end of election tactical voting going against SAD-BJP.

[jaichind]

Axis-My-India for India Today TV










UP (neck-to-neck between BJP+ and SP-INC)

BJP+      34.8%           185
SP-INC   33.2%           173
BSP        20.1%             41



Uttarakhand (clear BJP victory)

BJP        44%              42
INC        35%             25
BSP          7%               1 

If BJP is ahead by 9% then BJP should win over 50 seats and not just 42 seats



Punjab

INC             37%       62
AAP             34%       42
SAD-BJP      24%       13

Most polls seems to have it INC then AAP and then SAD-BJP.  Real chance of tactical collapse of SAD-BJP.  This might be a replay of Delhi 2013 when it was a 3 way race between INC BJP and AAP.  Toward the end it was clear that incumbent INC was coming in third which led to a strategic collapse of the INC vote.



Goa

BJP             43%         23
INC            35%         13
AAP              8%           1

This poll does not poll the MGP-GSM-SHS front which could lead to an overestimation of the BJP vote here.  I find it hard to believe that BJP can win 43% in a 4 way race (BJP vs INC vs AAP vs MGP-GSM-SHS) even it BJP comes out ahead which it quite believable. 

[jaichind]

The thing that should be concerning the BJP is that in UP, even polls that put BJP+ ahead of SP-INC show that Akhilesh Yadav is more popular than all the possible BJP CM candidates combined and Akhilesh Yadav is polling well ahead of SP-INC.  If so most likely polls that has BJP+ ahead is under-polling SP-INC support.

[jaichind]

The Axis-My-India poll for UP does show a surge in seat count for SP-INC once the SP-INC alliance was sealed relative to its Oct 16 and Dec 16 projections when SP and INC were going to contest separately.

[jaichind]

HuffPost-CVoter polls


Punjab

AAP          36.8%     63
INC          33.1%     43
SAD-BJP   20.7%     11

SAD-BJP at risk of a total meltdown which usually works to the advantage of AAP.  What INC needs is a weakened SAD-BJP which could still pull in anti-INC votes and not a total collapse of SAD-BJP.


Goa

BJP          31%       15
INC         26%       14
AAP         13.2%      2
Others     29.8%      9

They should really poll MGP-GSM-SHS separately but this poll rings pretty true to me.  In fact I still think INC should have a slight edge here.