India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[Shadows]

Modi is coming under fire due to some communally & religiously discriminating comments against Muslims?

[jaichind]

Modi is coming under fire due to some communally & religiously discriminating comments against Muslims?

Modi. while campaigning in UP, indirectly attacked SP for directing government resources toward Muslims.  He said that "If village gets graveyard, should get cremation ground too?"  Of course Hindus cremate their dead while Muslims bury them.  INC and SP are up in arms and are going to complain to the ECI that Modi is making a communal appeal which in violation of election rules (a rule I very much oppose as it goes against free speech.) 

[jaichind]

In Mumbai, It is a fight to the finish between BJP and SHS.  It is actually pretty funny these two allies for over 25 year in Mumbai until last month are now throwing all sort of mud at each other with both sides accusing the other of massive corruption and SHS calling the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis a liar in its main magazine even as BJP and SHS are still in theory allies at the Maharashtra state level as well as the center.

It seems the desperation on both sides has to do with with survival of the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis's government.  It SHS does well relative to the BJP then it can withdraw support from the Fadnavis's government after the election which would fall with INC NCP and now SHS ranged against it.  It BJP does well relative to SHS then one can expect SHS to swallow its pride to accept its fate as junior partner to BJP or the SHS will split down the middle with a significant faction of SHS defecting to BJP to help BJP form a majority while SHS's profile shrink across Maharashtra. 

INC and NCP are contesting separately as well but NCP has very little support in Mumbai so in theory this is a great opportunity for INC to emerge as the winner.  Unfortunately INC is even more faction ridden than in previous years and AIMIM is making a big push this time in Mumbai and will most likely drag down INC across the board. 

[jaichind]

In Amethi, one of the seats that SP-INC never resolved, SP incumbent Gayatri Prasad is running for re-election and former INC MLA Ameeta Singh running as an independent is up against BJP's Rani Garima Sinh whose husband is the former husband of Ameeta Singh in a "wife vs wife battle."  In 2012  SP's Gayatri Prasad defeated INC incumbent Ameeta Singh/.   To add the the drama now SP candidate Gayatri Prasad



Has been charged with gange rape and attempted rape of a minor.  The BJP and BSP are making this a big issue to discredit SP.

[jaichind]

2012 Mumbai BMC elections.

SHS-BJP-RPA(A)
 SHS                     75
 BJP                      31
-------------------------------
                         106

NMS                    28

INC-NCP
 INC                    52
 NCP                   13
--------------------------------
                          65

Others                28

At least 19 out of the 28 Others backed SHS-BJP

This time RPI(A) is allied with BJP which is contesting separately from SHS while NCP and INC are contesting separately.  MNS is a lot weaker this time relative to 2012 while AIMIM is expected to cut into the INC vote.

Bookies expect SHS to exceed 100 seats while it expect both INC and BJP to be around 50 seats. 

[jaichind]

BMC election turnout was 55% highest in 25 years which should be good news for BJP and most likely bad news for SHS.

Axis-My India exit poll on BMC election

This poll has SHS-BJP polarization pulling into tactical voting votes from all other parties as well as independents

SHS          32%         89
BJP           32%         84
INC          16%          32
MNS           8%           6
NCP            4%           5
SP              3%           3
Others        5%           6

This type of seat distribution where SHS and BJP are neck-to-neck is just about the only seat distribution that could prevent a  collapse of the BJP-SHS alliance at the state and center level.

[jaichind]

Zee 24 Taas exit polls for BMC election

SHS       93
BJP        80
INC        29

Same exit poll has for Zilla (District) council elections across Maharashtra seat count to be

BJP       375
INC       298
NCP      285
SHS      259

Traditionally at the Zilla level INC and NCP tends to be stronger so this result as a very positive one for BJP if true.

[jaichind]

BMC election results out: Significant progress for BJP even as SHS edges out BJP for first place

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

Results matches exit polls pretty well.  MNS collapsed from 2012.  Since BJP and SHS are contesting separately just like INC and NCP a lot of independents from 2012 contested in one of these 4 parties and as a result independent winners went down a lot from 2012.  INC and NCP could have saved itself from a rout had they formed a INC-NCP-SP alliance but as it was they both took losses despite the SHS-BJP split.

There does not seem to be any alternative to SHS and BJP forming an alliance again as there is no way INC SP or MIM joining either bloc.  In theory NCP or NMS could join BJP but that is unlikely and would not be enough anyway.  The battle now is which bloc, SHS or BJP, can get enough independents and perhaps other parties on its side so they can claim the larger bloc of the two and demand the position of mayor.  Both parties are already trying to woo the 4 independents and ABS (which is a mafia dominated SHS splinter.)

In the rest of Maharashtra municipal elections the story is the same. SHS-BJP split enough pushed INC and NCP votes toward SHS and BJP and the lack of INC-NCP alliance means that SHS and BJP both gain seats across the board, especially BJP.

[jaichind]

UP election phase 4 just completed.  Turnout is for now 60.37% whereas in 2012 these district turnout was at 60.20%.  A good part of Phase 4 in UP is Bundelkhand which is one of the most backward regions of UP.  Here SP is pretty weak but INC is relatively strong along with BSP.  So here it will be BJP vs INC vs BSP.

[jaichind]

The reports from the ground in UP is that in Phase 3 which have a lot of SP strongholds there was a swing away from SP due to anti-incumbency as well as the impact of the SP civil war.  There is a view that this might be a trend that could carry over to the other phases.

As a result whereas bookies had SP-INC at 220 seats and BJP at 97 a couple of weeks ago, now the odds are SP-INC 150 and BJP 160 seats.  BSP odds are at around 70 seats the entire time.  Historically BSP tends to be underrated so an estimation of BSP at 70 seats is actually quite impressive for BSP and ominous for SP-INC as that means the Muslim vote could be split between SP-INC and BSP which is a pre-condition for a BJP victory.

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of UP

First they talk about the BJP 2014 surge and doing the breakdown by assembly segments



They point out the 2014 BJP surge was based on a bunch of one-off factors which are based on surge in BJP support with Jats, Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits many of which will not take place in 2017


They then used the 2014 results to map out a vote share-to-seats map


They point out core votes for each party


They focused on the Muslim vote on how it is more urban, it swung against BJP in 2014, and that higher concentration of Muslims in certain districts provokes Hindu consolidation, least in 2014




It then points out that communal voting takes places in USA as well

[jaichind]

In BMC where the results are

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

The 4 independents seems to have backed SHS (some will actually just join SHS since 3 of them are SHS rebels anyway).  

As the largest party SHS has first shot at winning a vote for mayor.  SHS is now to get INC support arguing that 1) INC should want to block BJP despite any ideological differences  between INC and SHS.  2) SHS has backed INC for mayor of BMC back in the 1980s  3) SHS actually backed the INC Prez candidate for India in 2007 and 2012 breaking ranks with BJP.  INC seems to be split on this.  Some are ruling it out, others would demand SHS break their alliance with the BJP at the Maharashtra and all India level first and while even others are open to abstaining in the vote for mayor giving the SHS a shot a roping in ABS NCP NMS or SP, or at least getting them to abstain.

One way for SHS to win is to pretty much a) Get ABS to back it b) Get NCP NMS SP and INC to all abstain since each one of them have reasons to oppose BJP even more c) MIM will vote against SHS just like BJP but SHS with 88 plus ABS will be able to win.  The weakest link in this list would be NCP who might have more reasons to oppose SHS than BJP since SHS like NCP is really a Maharashtra party so their relative relationships tends to be more zero sum.

[jaichind]

In the  Maharashtra rural 25 Zilla Parishads elections the seat count by party are

BJP    406
NCP   360
INC    309
SHS   271

In 2012 it was

NCP   511
INC    419
SHS   243
BJP    165

Just like in the municipals elections there is a Maratha consolidation behind SHS while there are non-Maratha Hindu (Gujarati and Hindus from other states) consolidation behind BJP

[jaichind]

UP 5th phase voting in progress.  Included are Rahul Gandhi district of Amethi many of which will see INC-SP friendly fights.  SP did very well here in 2012 and will be playing defense against the BJP surge.

[jaichind]

Looking through the results of BMC one finds the BJP surge was based on the consolidation of Gujarati and North Indian votes along with some Marathi votes brought along  by various Marathi leaders that BJP inducted into the BJP for this election. One of the reason SHS was able to keep up was the consolidation of the remaining Marathi vote away from INC and NCP toward SHS.  What also helped SHS was, ironically, the Muslim vote which voted tactically to defeat BJP and then for, on paper, the more Hindu extremists SHS.

This voting pattern is the culmination of trends that finally pulled BJP and SHS apart.  It really started 10 years ago when MNS split from SHS. MNS strived to outflank SHS by being more extremist on its anti-Muslim plank as well as go after non-Marathi (like Gujaratis and North Indians.)  SHS had to adjust its position closer to MNS to avoid its urban Marathi based being taken over by MNS.  Over time this caused a problem for BJP-SHS relationships since SHS is a Maharashtra regional party while BJP has national aspirations and has to cater to Gujarati in Gujarat and North Indians in the Hindu heartland of UP and Bihar.  This finally led to a fracture between BJP and SHS in 2014 assembly elections.  But as SHS focused on Marathi mobilization to counter BJP in a fight about native sons of Maharashtra vs outsiders its position on Muslims subtly changed.  Muslims who recently migrated to Maharashtra  recently for sure would still be targeted but Muslims that have been in Maharashtra for generations would actually not be targeted by SHS relative to North Indians.  The resulting communal coalitions gives us the results we observed in the BMC election.

[jaichind]

It seems that in Maharashtra the NCP has been shocked by the municipal and rural  Zilla Parishads results  into reviewing its break with INC in Maharashtra.  NCP now is proposing an across the board alliance with INC to counter the growing power of BJP and SHS.  INC seems to be taking its time since SHS is also sending out feelers to INC for an tactical alliance in BMC and perhaps in other parts of Maharashtra.  The next Maharashtra assembly election might be BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP or BJP vs SHS-INC (tactial) vs NCP   or even BJP-NCP (tactical) vs SHS-INC (tactical).

[jaichind]

In BMC, it seems when it comes to SHS's desire for an alliance with INC in to elect a SHS mayor, INC's position is to make a decision last minute to vote against, for or abstain the SHS candidate for mayor.  The reason is the election for BMC mayor is right after all the UP elections are done.  INC feels that a vote to abstain or for SHS would lose INC votes in UP for Hindus and Muslims alike given the hostility between SHS in Maharashtra and North Indians (Hindus and Muslims.)  The inclination for INC in BMC is to at least abstain just to make sure BJP is locked out.  But INC can only do it after all the votes in UP are cast.     

[jaichind]

Voting ends in 5th phase of UP elections.  Turnout estimated at 57.36%.  In 2012 these district turnout is 57.1%.  Most likely estimated turnout will be increased.  So turnout increased a bit from 2012 levels.

[jaichind]

Just to clear about the different communal coalitions BJP+, INC-SP and BSP has in mind.

In UP we have

Upper Caste           20%
OBC                       40%
 Yadavs                      10%
 Other BC                  10%
 EBC                          20%
Dalits                    20%
 Jatavs                      10%
 Non-Jatavs Dalits      10%
Muslims                20%

The BJP plan is roughly
a) For Jatavs, Muslims, Yadavs which add up to 40% of the vote, just cede them all and target winning about 7.5% of this group or 3% of the total vote
b) For Upper castes which add up to 20% of the vote, assume that BJP will manage to keep most of its 2014 result and win around 65% of them or 13% of the total vote using the traditional Upper Caste BJP turnout machine
c) For the rest (Non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBC) which are 40% of the vote, ally with EBC parties like AD and SBSP as well as run a lot of of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit candidates along with the Modi brand to win almost have of this vote which adds up to 19% of the total vote.

This means BJP+ would win 3%+13%+19%=35% which would lead to

BJP+     35%
SP-INC  32%
BSP       24%

For BJP+ to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



The SP-INC plan is roughly
1) For Yadav and Muslims vote which adds up to 30% of the vote win around 2/3 of that voting bloc for 20% of the total vote based on the traditional SP Yadav turnout machine plus projecting itself as the main opponent of BJP+ and have the Muslim vote come to SP-INC by itself.  
2) Give up on the Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote.
3) For the remaining  60% of the vote (which are Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits, and non-Yadav OBC) win 1/4 of the vote for 15% of the total vote based on residual INC support among Upper Castes   and non-Jatav Dalits, old SP turnout machine among EBCs, and the Akhilesh Yadav clean image to capture non-Yadav BC and  Upper Caste votes.  For SP and INC strongholds use traditional candidates.  In other districts renominate cleaner image SP MLAs  to coordinate with the Akhilesh Yadav image based campaign.  

This means SP-INC would win 20%+15%=35% which would lead to

SP-INC  35%
BJP+     32%
BSP       24%

For a SP-INC to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



BSP plan is roughly
1) Count on the BSP core Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote to come back to BSP and win 80% to get 8% of the total without nominating Jadav candidates.
2) Nominate some Non-Jatav Dalit but too many and count on the Non-Jatav Dalit vote which is 10% of t he vote to come back to BSP and win half of the vote to win 5% of the total vote.
3) Nominate large number of Muslim candidates (over 100 out of 403 seats) to target to Muslim vote which is 20% of the vote to win about 1/3 of the vote for 7% of the total vote.
4) For the remaining 60% of the vote (OBC and Upper Castes) win around 15% of the vote by nominating candidates from OBC and Upper castes based on the caste demographics of of the district for 10% of the vote vote.

This means BSP would win 8%+5%+7%+10%=30% which would lead to

BSP       30%
BJP+     30%
SP-INC  30%

For a three way tie between the three blocs which is the best BSP can hope for.

[jaichind]

Current betting markets are giving the BSP a pretty good result

BJP+      161
SP-INC   150
BSP         72
Others     20

[jaichind]

UP 6th phase voting done.  Turnout was 57.03% while in 2012 the same districts turnout was 55.04%.

7th phase will be March 8th when all voting will be done and exit polls will come out.

[jaichind]

More NDTV analysis of UP

Gives communal breakdown of UP


Points that East UP and West UP vote on different things


Points out that "higher" Dalits which are Jatavs vote BSP while "lower" Dalits might go BJP


Points out the UP anti-BJP grand alliance is weaker than the Bihar anti-BJP grand alliance


Points out that winner needs 35% of the vote


Old talking point that BJP+ would have to suffer a large swing from 2014 to lose this election


Points out where the core votes are for each bloc


Points out that SP seems to be targeting Yadavs, Upper Caste and does not prioritize non-Yadav OBC


If 2012 is the baseline then SP-INC would make a significant difference


But if 2014 is the baseline then BJP has too much of a vote share lead for SP-INC to make much of a difference


Shows where each bloc might be vulnerable


Talks about how UP is mostly rural


And that SP-INC and BSP tends to do better in rural areas while BJP is stronger in the cities



Points out that BJP has an edge based on ground reports

[jaichind]

Now that NDTV's Prannoy Roy projects a BJP victory (although not necessary absolute majority) over SP-INC, it seems India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai also made pretty much the same projection.  These two are the among to the English speaking journalists in India.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a view that in UP in a 3 way race 35% should be enough to secure a majority and that the BJP is closing in on that threshold.  I guess looking at UP assembly elections in the 1990s when the BJP was the most powerful political force in UP seems to indicate that the structure of the BJP vote would indicate that BJP might need to do a bit better than 35% to win a majority of the seats if we correctly strip out the Uttarakhand results from the 1991 1993 and 1996 UP assembly election results.

[jaichind]

UP 1991 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         397             204               31.32%

BJP rebel                          0                 0.28%
SHS           14                  1                 0.13%

INC+        396               44               16.98%

INC rebel                         0                 0.32%

JD+          377               92               19.77%

CPI+          52                 5                 1.37%  (includes CPM, had tactical alliance with JD+)

SJP+        390               34               13.31%

SJP rebel                         5                 0.60%

BSP          371               12                 9.70%

There was a JD government in UP since 1989 and fell due to the split of JD at the center where SJP split from JD.  In UP Mulayam Singh Yadav was the face of SJP and the original plan was for a INC-SJP alliance which had the potential to beat back the surging BJP.  At the last minute SJP called off the alliance and it was a 5 way battle between BJP, INC, JD, SJP and BSP.  BJP won a bare majority of seats in what is now UP despite winning over 31% of the vote in a 5 way race.



The LS election held at the same time produced the following results

UP 1991 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          79                46               32.39%

INC+         79                  5               18.07%
 
JD+           77                23               23.90%   (includes CPI and CPM)

SJP            77                 4               10.94%

BSP+         66                 1                 9.10%

Mostly same as assembly election with JD+ being helped by explicit alliance with CPM-CPI but BJP doing better in terms of seat count relative to assembly election results.  SJP did worse in LS elections relative to assembly elections due to the fact that SJP only had one start campaigner, Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was focused more on the assembly election to retain his position as CM.