India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat  (Read 45349 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: April 02, 2017, 07:13:22 PM »

A visit to the AIADMK website http://aiadmk.com/?q=en shows a clear change from before Jayalalitha's deah. 

As I pointed out a couple of years ago

Look at the AIADMK website

http://aiadmk.com/

Notice how every section has a picture of Jayalalithaa and every picture of a person is Jayalalithaa.

The website before Jayalalitha's death pretty much has nothing but pictures of Jayalalitha.

Now the website has pictures of Sasikala, Jayalalitha, MGR, and Annadurai.  It shows that the Sasikala faction is in clear control of all AIADMK party assets and that Sasikala is trying to build up her authority by not just referring to Jayalalitha but also to MGR and  Annadurai.  Before Sasikala was sent to jail she paid a visit to MGR's Mausoleum is a signal of her strategy.  By just referring to Jayalalitha makes Sasikala just the puppet of Jayalalitha, even in absentia while referring to all AIADMK leaders of the past makes Sasikala seem like the next generation leader of AIADMK, even though she is in jail.  This strategy makes sense but is very cynical since back in the 1980s before Sasikala and her husband became friends with  Jayalalitha they were known as DMK partisans and backed Karunanidhi over his rival MGR.
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jaichind
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« Reply #326 on: April 08, 2017, 08:41:57 AM »

In the by-election in TN 4/12 the AIADMK vote would be split 3 ways between  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma), Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and Jayalalitha's neice Deepa Jayakumar who formed her outfit and is running herself.

Most media polls has AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) ahead of AIADMK(Amma) although it is not clear if that is enough to over take DMK.  The winner of this by-election would be in a position to reunify the AIADMK factions.  AIADMK(Amma) which has control of TN state resources are said to put in massive resources to win. There are talks of vote buying at a rate of up to $80 per vote which is a massive rate given the level of average income in TN.  It is also clear that BJP prefers AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and there are talk of the central government agencies intervening to help AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) by opening corruption investigations of key AIADMK(Amma) kingpins, especially in the district. 

If media surveys are to believed then it is a neck-to-neck race between AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and DMK with the risk of AIADMK(Amma) voting buying robbing necessary AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) votes for it to win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #327 on: April 08, 2017, 09:00:53 AM »

4/23 will be the Delhi Municipal MCD elections.  BJP won the last two in 2007 and 2012.  On paper AAP should win like they did in 2015 Delhi assembly elections.  But with the national momentum on BJP's side and expected anti-incumbency to weigh down AAP the BJP as a solid shot at coming out ahead.  What would be interesting to see the INC vote share to see if there is some recovery of the INC vote base which mostly went over to the AAP in 2015.
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« Reply #328 on: April 11, 2017, 02:22:04 AM »

just saw the results from Uttar Pradesh

Sad
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jaichind
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« Reply #329 on: April 11, 2017, 07:17:48 AM »

In TN ECI has cancelled the RK Nagar by-election for now due to discovery of large sums of cash by  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) that already has been distributed for vote buying.
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: April 14, 2017, 10:43:15 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2017, 08:16:34 PM by jaichind »

Latest round of by-elections shows the BJP surge continues even as INC stabilizes itself.



BJP gained 2 seats. One from AAP in Delhi and one from BSP in Rajasthan.

The rule of thumb for assembly by-elections in India is that the ruling party tends to gain as voters would vote for a MLA that is more likely to get the district resources.

In HP BJP held its seat even as the INC is the ruling party implies a BJP victory later this year in the HP assembly election.  BJP's margin is reduced but that is mostly because of a BJP rebel.  The district, Bhoranj has the results when compared to 2012

2012 result
BJP          59.5%
INC         36.8%

2017 by-election
BJP          52.2%
INC          34.5%
BJP rebel    9.9%



In Karnataka where the INC is the ruling party INC held its two seats against a BJP surge.  JD(S) did not run candidates and as a result the INC victory margin increased from 2013 which shows that in the Karnataka elections in 2018 if the INC can form an alliance with JD(S) they could potentially hold off BJP.

In Gundlupet when compared to 2013 has

2013
INC        45.4%
KJP        40.7%  (KJP is a BJP splinter that has since merged back into BJP)
BSP         3.7%
JD(S)       2.5%
BJP          1.2%

2017 by-election
INC        51.6%
BJP        45.4%

In Nanjangud when compared to 2013 it is

2013
INC        36.0%
JD(S)      29.7%
KJP         20.1% (KJP is a BJP splinter that has since merged back into BJP)
BJP          5.0%

2017 by-election
INC       55.2%
BJP        41.5%



In MP where BJP is the ruling party the BJP and INC both held their seats.  BSP did not run candidates which seems to have benefited BJP. This means that INC has a shot at making solid gains in 2018 against BJP since BSP is likely to run then.

In Ater when compared to 2013 it is

2013
INC      40.5%
BJP      30.3%
BSP      17.7%
BSD       5.9%  (a rival Dalit based party of the BSP)

2017 by-election
INC      48.0%
BJP      47.3%

In  Bandhavgarh when compared to 2013 it is

2013
BJP       48.3%
INC       34.9%
BSP        5.2%
GPP        5.0%

2017 by-election
BJP       55.0%
INC       36.1%
GPP        4.0%



In Rajasthan a BSP MLA defected to the ruling BJP after being convicted in a murder case and ran his wife on the BJP ticket and winning over INC.  While this shows the strength of the BJP the shift of the BSP base over to BJP in this district means that this result cannot be generalized to Rajasthan.  Rajasthan tends to be quite elastic and INC does have a chance of coming back in 2018.

The result in Dholpur when compared to 2013 is

2013
BSP      38.4%
INC      31.3%
BJP       27.2%

2017 by-election
BJP      61.8%
INC      35.7%



In WB the ruling AITC held its seat over a surging BJP.  Key fact here is BJP has vaulted over CPM and INC to come in a strong second.  Although historically BJP does very well in by-elections in WB but them does not do so when in the general election.  The INC vote clearly went to AITC to beat back BJP.  AITC might have no choice by to ally with INC and vice versa to beat back BJP in the future.

In Kanthi Dakshin when compared to 2016 it is

2016
AITC     54.4%
CPM      34.6%  (INC backed CPM here)
BJP        8.9%

2017 by-election
AITC     55.9%
BJP       31.0%
CPM      10.2%
INC        1.3%



In Jharkhand where BJP is the ruling party JMM with INC support beat back the BJP to hold its seat.  This shows that in 2019 JMM-INC has a shot at beating BJP.

The result in  Littipara when compared to 2014 is

2014
JMM     45.9%
BJP      28.8%
INC       8.5%
JVM       6.0%
CPM       3.8%

2017 by-election
JMM     46.4%
BJP      37.2%
JVM       6.5%



In Delhi where AAP is the ruling party comes the shocker.  BJP wins an AAP seat with INC came in second and AAP coming in a weak third place.  This seems to show that Delhi politics is reverting to a pre-2013 structure.   The district, Rajouri Garden, voted the following way in 2013 2015 and now

2013
SAD (backed by BJP)   41.4%
INC                          30.5%
AAP                          16.9%
NCP                           5.7%

2015
AAP                         46.6%
SAD(backed by BJP)   38.0%
INC                         12.0%

2017 by election
BJP                         52.0%
INC                         33.2%
AAP                         13.2%

Alarm bells should be going off in AAP at such a result with AAP as the ruling party.



In Assam the ruling BJP held its seat with a smaller margin against INC.  The Mising tribal SGS did not run this time and the Mising tribal vote seems to be split between BJP and INC. This seems to show that INC is not finished in Assam and can make a comeback in 2021.

The result in Dhemaji when compared to 2016 is

2016
BJP              41.2%
INC              29.9%
SGS             13.0%  (a Mising tribal party)
BJP rebel        9.8%

2017 by-election
BJP             50.1%
INC             44.0%
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #331 on: April 15, 2017, 03:06:39 PM »

All things equal the delay in the by-election in TN works to the advantage of the BJP.  Any chance of an early AIADMK reunification would be one of the two AIADMK factions wins decisively and as a result the other AIADMK faction merges into the winning faction.   Keeping the two AIADMK factions split works to the advantage of the BJP to expand its influence into the AIADMK Upper Caste and upper OBC vote base and also allows the BJP to pull AIADMK Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) into its orbit.

In other developments two PWF (DMDK-MDMK-VCK-CPI-CPM-TMC alliance) parties, VCK and CPI, are looking to leave PWF and join up with DMK-INC alliance.  It is said CPM is looking into such a move as well.  It seems that DMK is expecting a mid-term election soon and is looking to sign up more alliance partners.
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jaichind
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« Reply #332 on: April 15, 2017, 03:15:58 PM »

Even though it is clear that BJP did very well in this latest round of assembly elections one should not forget that in addition to the popularity of Modi this is partly because the 2009-2012 cycle of assembly elections were very bad for the BJP so the BJP had the advantage of running in 2013-2017 assembly elections EITHER with anti-incumbency at the state level in its favor OR anti-incumbency at the federal level OR BOTH.  When the BJP had to run in a assembly election  where the incumbent ruling alliance was the NDA WHILE the BJP ruled the center (Goa, Punjab) then NDA lost ground.

In the elections coming up it is clear that BJP will win HP but Gujarat will be the real test.  Gujarat now has an incumbent BJP government with a BJP government at the federal level.    Last time the BJP was in this situation was in 2002 when Modi who was put in to save the BJP from certain defeat.  Then came the Gujarat riots which help Modi pull off a victory.  Now the BJP will have to run for re-election without Modi leading them directly, no riots, and with double anti-incumbency weight down on them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #333 on: April 15, 2017, 03:24:24 PM »

What this round of assembly elections does tell us is that Modi will most likely lead the BJP to another victory in 2019 so in that sense Modi is a clear winner.  Another more subtle winner of all this, I believe, is Rahul Gandhi.  Even though INC was trounced in UP and Uttarakhand, the very nature of the BJP surge means that all regional parties will look to coalesce around an anti-BJP front in 2019.  Before this round of assembly elections, candidates for the leadership of this front ranges from the obvious INC to SP to BSP to AAP.  This round of assembly elections pretty much crushed SP BSP and AAP and put them out of the running.  AITC could be such a center but with the BJP surging in WB AITC most likly will have its hands full dealing with the BJP in WB than try to lead a national front. 

So by default INC under Rahul Gandhi will lead this possible uber grand alliance in 2019.  It is clear that such an alliance will fail to defeat Modi in 2019 just like a similar alliance failed to defeat Indira Gandhi in 1971.  But if Rahul Gandhi can keep INC in the game and in one piece then 2024 is beginning to look pretty good for Rahul Gandhi and the INC when anti-incumbency will catch up with Modi and Rahul Gandhi would have had years to build up and work with a anti-BJP national alliance.  The real threat to Rahul Gandhi was never the BJP but other anti-BJP rivals such as SP BSP AAP or even AITC that could end up being the anti-BJP Pan-India party.  As a result of this round of election this threat is gone.
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jaichind
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« Reply #334 on: April 15, 2017, 03:45:00 PM »

There are talks of various parities across the political spectrum looking to join and form an anti-BJP uber grand alliance.  Both SP and BSP are not making noises that they are looking to join such a front, mostly led by INC.  What would such a front look like.  In key states I think it will look like this:

UP:  SP-BSP-INC-RLD vs BJP-AD-SBSP
Bihar: JD(U)-RJD-INC vs BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM
Haryana: INC-INLD vs BJP
Punjab: INC-AAP vs BJP-SAD
Delhi: INC-AAP vs BJP-SAD
AP: YSRCP-INC vs TDP-BJP
Assam: INC-AIUDF vs BJP-AGP-BPF
J&K: JKN-INC vs PDP-BJP
Jharkhand: JMM-INC-JVM vs BJP-AJSU
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Kerela : INC+ vs BJP-BDJS vs CPM+ (three way battle, CPM+ and INC+ tactical voting)
Maharashtra: INC-NCP vs BJP vs SHS (three way battle, INC-NCP and SHS tactical voting)
Orissa: BJD-INC vs BJP
TN: DMK-INC vs BJP-AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) vs AIADMK(Amma) (three way battle)
Telangana: INC-YSRCP vs BJP-TDP vs TRS (three way battle, INC-YSRCP and TRS tactical voting)
WB: AITC-INC vs BJP vs CPM+ (three way battle, AITC-INC and CPM+  tactical voting)
MP: INC-BSP vs BJP
Uttarakhand: INC-BSP-UKD vs BJP
Goa: INC-AAP vs BJP-MGP
Rajasthan: INC-BSP vs BJP
Gujarat: INC-NCP vs BJP

A lot of these possible alliance will be hard to pull off, like getting AAP to align with INC in Delhi Goa and Punjab, SP-BSP forming an alliance in UP, BSP accepting INC's lead in MP Rajasthan and  Uttarakhand, BJD and INC coming together in Orissa (although this one seems more and more likely), JD(S) and INC forming an alliance in  Karnataka, JMM and JVM forming an alliance in Jharkhand.   But even if these alliance were formed most likely BJP would still win in 2019.  These alliance will, in 2019, be dry runs for the real battle in 2024.
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jaichind
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« Reply #335 on: April 17, 2017, 07:12:26 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2017, 07:20:58 AM by jaichind »

Drama never ends in action packed TN.  It seems that the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) itself is headed for a split which could see Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran ousted from the leadership of AIADMK(Amma).

Just to recap, AIADMK split into rival factions led by Jayalalitha aide Sasikala


and Former TN CM Panneerselvam


Most of the AIADMK MLAs went with  Sasikala who was then convicted of corruption and put in jail.  Before she went to jail, she installed Palaniswami as TN CM


and also installed her nephew TTV Dinakaran as Deputy General Secretary
 

TTV Dinakaran was expelled by Jayalalitha back in 2011 from the AIADMK for influence peddling using his links to his aunt  Sasikala.  As Sasikala wwas being put in jail she re-inducted TTV Dinakaran into AIADMK and put him in charge of AIADMK(Amma).

The Sasikala clan has never been popular with the public in TN and in the  RK Nagar by-election (the seat opened up due to the death of  TN CM Jayalalitha) TTV Dinakaran ran as the AIADMK(Amma) candidate.  Neither the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) nor Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) was awarded the AIADMK election symbol by ECI.  Then AIADMK(Amma) was caught in vote buying and ECI has canceled the by-election.

There was rising fear in AIADMK(Amma) that  TTV Dinakaran  will drag down the electoral prospects of AIADMK(Amma).  As a result elements of AIADMK(Amma) started to coalesce around TN CM Palaniswami try to push out TTV Dinakaran and Sasikala (who is in jail) with him.  The Palaniswami faction has been in talks with the Panneerselvam faction and both seems to have agreed that once the Palaniswami faction can push out TTV Dinakaran and Sasikala out of the leadership of AIADMK(Amma)  then AIADMK(Amma) and Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma)
and reunify with Palaniswami  as TN CM and  Panneerselvam as Secretary General of a reunited AIADMK.

It seems that over the weekend partisans of Palaniswami gave TTV Dinakaran and ultimatum that he and   Sasikala  has to resign from the AIADMK(Amma) leadership within two days or they will be pushed out.  It also seems that TTV Dinakaran counter-threatened the Palaniswami partisans that if they tried to do that he will break AIADMK(Amma) and take the 40-50 MLAs loyal to Sasikala to form a separate party with the result being the AIADMK(Amma) government falling and new elections be held which presumably Sasikala AIADMK and Panneerselvam-Palaniswami AIADMK will both lose to DMK.  TTV Dinakaran also allegedly threatened to take his new party an ally with DMK to form a government.  If this were to take place BJP will come in to support  Panneerselvam-Palaniswami AIADMK while DMK-INC will come in to support TTV Dinakaran.

Then this morning news came that ECI have arrested agents of TTV Dinakaran for trying to bribe ECI officials (with around $10 million) to grant AIADMK(Amma) the old AIADMK election symbol.  It seems TTV Dinakaran is likely to be be arrested soon and that might be the end of the short reign of the  Sasikala clan over AIADMK.

It seems the end-game would be a reunification of AIADMK which I guess is bad news for every other political player in TN.
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: April 19, 2017, 08:52:44 AM »

For upcoming Delhi MCD elections on 4/23 ABP News-C Voter  poll has BJP ahead



BJP   36%
AAP  26%
INC  17%

With regional breakdown

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jaichind
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« Reply #337 on: April 19, 2017, 09:11:34 AM »

In TN, the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) puppet CM Palaniswami strikes against the Sasikala clan.  It seems a large majority of the AIADMK(Amma) has sided with Palaniswami  to demand that Sasikala's newphew and standin TTV Dinakaran removed himself from the leadership of AIADMK(Amma) and that the  Sasikala  clan stay out of AIADMK politics given TTV Dinakaran's legal problems.  It seems only around 10 MLAs for now are backing TTV Dinakaran who seems to have meekly decided to step aside, for now.

What seems to be driving  Palaniswami  and the AIADMK(Amma) MLAs is that they know the BJP is out to get  Sasikala clan and that because of that various central agencies are looking into corruption cases against   AIADMK(Amma) MLAs.  They figure if they boot the Sasikala clan they they can get BJP's support to run TN over the Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).  They also need the AIADMK election symbol which is frozen due to the split of the Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).

The  Palaniswami  faction's position is now that the main demand Panneerselvam faction has made so far, removal of Sasikala clan, has been meet so there should now be a reunification of the two factions  under the leadership of Palaniswami  as TN CM and Panneerselvam  as, say, general secretary.  It seems things are not that simple.  Panneerselvam is now demanding that he be reinstated as CM AND take over as general secretary of AIADMK. 

If reunification talks break down this might lead to a revival of the  Sasikala clan where many of the AIADMK(Amma) MLA own their seats to. 

If AIADMK is reunified without the  Sasikala clan they it is certain it will align with BJP.  It is possible PMK will join this alliance as well as MDMK.  The politics in TN will become

AIADMK-PMK-BJP-MDMK vs DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM

It is not clear where DMDK, TMC.  TMC is currently aligned with Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) but might balk at being on the same front as BJP and end up with DMK-INC.  DMDK most likely will go with DMK-INC as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #338 on: April 19, 2017, 09:22:11 AM »

The AIADMK website now has no content as battles continues on who is the leader of AIADMK

All AIADMK.com has now is this



Which is picture of Anna, MGR and Jayalalitha.  Everyone in AIADMK can agree on these 3 as their heroes.  Everything else is up in the air.
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jaichind
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« Reply #339 on: April 23, 2017, 07:29:20 AM »

A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%

BJP+ held on to the Upper Caste vote and won the battle of non-Yadav OBC while gaining a good part of the Dalit vote even though there were signs that the Dalit vote was coming home to BSP.  SP-INC has been reduced to the Yadav-Muslim bloc (almost 20% of the 28% vote share came from Yadav-Muslims) while BSP failed to gain ground in Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Muslim votes despite running large number of candidates in  communities.  BSP hopes of sweeping BJP in Non-Jatav Dailt also failed.

What was decisive was the non-Yadav OBC vote went very strongly for BJP.  SP was formed in 1992 as THE OBC party but has lost the narrative this election leading to a collapse of its old OBC base outside of Yadavs.

Today’s Chanakya's did an analysis of the UP BJP+ vote by community and came out with

Upper Caste    63%
OBC               61%
Dalits             32%
Yadavs            25%
Muslims          10%

which is pretty close to my wild guess of

Upper Caste    70%
OBC               60%
Dalits             25%  (average of Jatav  and non-Jatav Dalits)
Yadavs            25%
Muslims          10%

So it seems I overestimated the BJP+ vote for Upper Castes and underestimated the BJP+ vote for Dalits.

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jaichind
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« Reply #340 on: April 24, 2017, 11:37:06 AM »

Delhi MCD exit polls



BJP will get over 200 seats  in all 3 exit polls, INC 22-26 seats or so in all 3 exit, while AAP between 24 and 29 seats.

 

In 2012 it was   BJP 138 INC 77 and Others 57

In terms of vote share it seems that it will be something like

BJP+   43%
AAP     24%
INC     23%

when compared to 2013 2014 and 2015

                          2013      2014LS     2015

AAP                     29.7%     33.1%    54.3%
BJP+SAD             34.2%     46.6%    32.7%
INC                      24.7%    15.2%      9.7%

It seems INC back up to 2013 levels while BJP stronger and AAP weaker relative to 2013
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jaichind
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« Reply #341 on: April 24, 2017, 11:50:44 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 11:52:42 AM by jaichind »

The talks between the two rival AIADMK factions (Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)  and Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma)) are yet to really start.  Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) had demanded that the Sasikala  clan are expelled from AIADMK(Amma) as a precondition for talks.  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) say that the Sasikala and clan has "stepped aside" for the talks to take place which the Panneerselvam faction claim is not enough since it is just a ruse.  

The Panneerselvam faction are demanding that Panneerselvam becomes CM again AND the General Secretary of AIADMK.  While Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) (now perhaps should be called Palaniswami faction) CM Palaniswami is willing to cede the position of General Secretary to Panneerselvam but no the CM position.  The reason why Panneerselvam faction with only around 10 MLAs are willing to be so demanding is that another split in the   Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) between  Palaniswami  and the  Sasikala clan where another 10 more MLA defect if the Sasikala clan break off with their own supporters then the government will fall.  And even if it does not local TN elections in June will find neither AIADMK factions with the AIADMK election symbol which highlights the chaos in AIADMK right now would lead to wipe-out of  AIADMK(Amma) in those elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #342 on: April 26, 2017, 06:16:53 AM »

Delhi MCD election results out.  BJP won in a landslide although not by the margins projected by exit polls.  This is mostly a vote against AAP with the AAP vote from 2015 Assembly election splintering toward both BJP and INC.  BJP is still below their 2014 LS peak but is higher than 2013 Assembly elections.  INC did make a recovery and shows that it is a viable party in New Delhi even if it is #3.

The results are
     

                Seats           Diff from               Diff from
                               2015 Assembly         2014 LS
BJP            182            +155                      -24
AAP             56             -192                      -16
INC             30              +28                      +29
BSP              3                 +3                       +3
SP                1                 +1                       +1
INLD            1                 +1                       +1
Ind.             6                 +6                       +6
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: April 26, 2017, 06:39:21 AM »

Looks like vote share for MCD Delhi are around

BJP     36.6%
AAP     26.0%
INC     21.3%
BSP      4.1%

whereas last few Delhi elections were

                          2013      2014LS     2015

AAP                     29.7%     33.1%    54.3%
BJP+SAD             34.2%     46.6%    32.7%
INC                      24.7%    15.2%      9.7%
BSP                       5.4%       1.2%     1.3%

Once we fact in the fact that the independent vote is a lot higher in MCD elections INC and BSP has mostly got back to 2013 levels.  BJP vote share is somewhat better than 2013 while AAP is somewhat worse.  From a vote share point of view this election looks like what 2013 assembly was suppose to look like (a BJP win) before a last minute AAP surge.
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jaichind
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« Reply #344 on: April 28, 2017, 10:55:40 AM »

Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) Deputy General Secretary of TTV Dinakaran has been arrested.  TN CM Palaniswami has pretty much order banners of Sasikala to be removed from AIADMK headquarters



So now Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) really should be now called Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) as the Sasikala clan's reign comes to an end.

Talks between  Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) and  Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) continues and are still stuck on the issue on who will be CM,  Palaniswami or Panneerselvam.  Of course Sasikala clan still have their supporters within Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma)  and when the time is right might split Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) down the middle.
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: May 05, 2017, 12:30:42 PM »

India Prez elections coming up in July.  Thanks to the BJP landslide in UP, BJP with the backing of NDA is close to a majority in the Prez electoral college.



NDA has around 527,000 electoral votes while anti-BJP parties (UPA plus various anti-BJP parties) has around 434,000 electoral votes.

Neutral parties (AIADMK, BJD, TRS) have around 119,000 electoral votes  and independents around 15,000 electoral votes. 

Looking at each state MLAs breakdown has


So the battle for BJP is the capture some of the neutral parities votes or hope for an anti-BJP split.  The battle for UPA is to consolidate the anti-BJP bloc and win over all of the neutral parties.

Among the neutral parities historically all three are pro-NDA.  But now in Odisha BJD now sees the BJP as the main rival as opposed to INC and in Telegana now TRS see BJP-TDP as the main rival as opposed to INC so both are more likely to join up with UPA.  AIADMK which is now split will most likely go with NDA especially given the DMK-INC alliance in TN.

If so then NDA has a clear edge unless the UPA/Anti-BJP alliance can get an existing NDA party to defect.  SHS is the most likely defector given how bad the BJP-SHS relationship is right now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #346 on: May 29, 2017, 10:49:44 AM »

It seems both AIADMK factions, TRS, and YSRCP have all backed NDA for the upcoming Presidential race.  This all but assures that NDA will win.  SHS might defect but even that is not enough to derail the BJP as long as the BJP comes up with a quality candidate.

TRS and YSRCP going with NDA is a bit of a surprise.  It is clear that BJP will go after TRS in Telangana in 2019 so it is not clear why TRS is backing NDA.  Perhaps it is trying to dislodge TDP as the BJP ally in Telangana in 2019 seeing that BJP might be unbeatable in 2019.  Of course the political space that BJP will demand will be something I doubt TRS will be willing to pay.   YSRCP backing BJP is a surprise but its motives are clear.  YSRCP, seeing  that BJP will most likely win in 2019 is hoping to get BJP to dump TDP and take on YSRCP as its ally in AP.  Since BJP is fairly small in AP and with TDP determined to prevent the BJP from expanding in AP a BJP-YSRCP deal is possible.
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jaichind
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« Reply #347 on: May 29, 2017, 10:53:10 AM »

With the political chaos in TN due to the continued civil war within the ruling AIADMK it seems another political explosion is ready to take place.  Film superstar Rajinikanth is said to be entering into politics soon.  Rajinikanth always had a pro-BJP pro-AIADMK political tilt but never came out openly for either party.  It is possible he might form a new party to try to displace the AIADMK or take over as leader of AIADMK or become the face of BJP by being the TN BJP leader.  Time will tell soon.

Rajinikanth


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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: June 07, 2017, 08:03:23 PM »

In UP it seems that SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and BSP president Mayawati with both attend an August rally in Patna organized by RJD.  One more step in the creation of an uber grand alliance of SP-BSP-INC in UP in 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #349 on: June 07, 2017, 08:10:37 PM »

In TN it seems TTV Dinakaran is making a comeback within Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) as his support seems to swelling relative to TN CM Palaniswami since he was let out on bail.  It seems AIADMK is headed toward having 3 factions, one around former CM Panneerselvam, one around current CM Palaniswami, and one around  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)  Deputy General Secretary TTV Dinakaran.  It seems merge talks between Palaniswami and Palaniswami are dragging out forever and as times drags on the AIADMK MLAs are growing restless and some are converging around TTV Dinakaran who as left for lead a few weeks ago. 
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