MI - The Detroit News/WDIV-TV/Glengariff: Clinton +7

[heatcharger]

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/29/clinton-leads-michigan-poll-trump/91304744/

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 52%
Trump - 20%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 27-28. 600 LV.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with an R+0.1 house effect.

[Dr. Arch]

Safe D. No surprises here.

[cinyc]

Clinton - 42% (+1 from poll ending August 1)
Trump - 35% (+3.4)
Johnson - 9% (+1.5)
Stein - 3% (-0.4)
Other Candidate 1% (+0)
Undecided/Refused 10% (-5.5)

I'm not sure why Glengariff loved decimals for their August poll but not this time.

Trump is supposedly up 20 in Macomb County but down 20 in neighboring Oakland County.  The MoE on those subsamples must be huge, but it sort of confirms the blue collar/white collar trends, I guess.  I doubt there will be that large a difference come election day, though.

[StatesPoll]

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/29/clinton-leads-michigan-poll-trump/91304744/

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

Who won the debate:

Clinton - 52%
Trump - 20%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 27-28. 600 LV.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with an R+0.1 house effect.

where is party id % in the poll?

[Xing]

In case anyone has forgotten: Michigan is Safe D.

[NOVA Green]

This is a good indicator that Wisconsin is likely swinging back towards Clinton as well, after a few bad weeks of polling there for her.

Really interested in seeing a post-debate poll from WI and OH as well to see if things are swinging back in the industrial MidWest / Heartlands.

[Gass3268]

Here are the numbers from the City of Detroit:

[Dr. Arch]

lol, Trump at 0%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

All those posts claiming Trump could get over 10% of the black vote are hilarious now.

[NOVA Green]

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....

[cinyc]

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....

Trump is supposedly up 20 points in Macomb County, according to this poll - and supposedly down 20 in Oakland.  The swing between the two counties seems too high to be true.  Small sample size, high MoE.

[NOVA Green]

Damn!!! If Trump isn't clearing even 5% of Black voters in Detroit, it's not not looking good in Macomb, let alone places like Flint and Lansing.....

Trump is supposedly up 20 points in Macomb County, according to this poll - and supposedly down 20 in Oakland.  The swing between the two counties seems too high to be true.  Small sample size, high MoE.

That'a always the drill and CW...

Macomb County Dems and Oakland County /indies and Reps..

Still, regardless of breakdowns it looks like overall Team Hillary is dominating in Metro Detroit, and performing very well in metro areas downstate, as well as rural counties elsewhere in Michigan.

[chrisras]

Not surprised Trump's African American outreach is falling on deaf ears.  It's really bad. His pitch is very insulting and he doesn't even realize it.

Hillary is going to be awful in rural areas.  Zero appeal

[Seriously?]

2-way numbers from WDIV (Clickondetroit.com)
Clinton 46.0%
Trump 39.1%
Other 3.5%
Undecided 9.3%
Refused 2.0%

http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/clinton-won-the-debate-leads-trump-by-7-in-michigan-wdivdetroit-news-poll-finds