A nightmare scenario: Trumpism ascendant
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  A nightmare scenario: Trumpism ascendant
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Author Topic: A nightmare scenario: Trumpism ascendant  (Read 770 times)
Jesus save us
NJR
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« on: September 30, 2016, 07:19:49 AM »

Let us say that Trump wins, but only narrowly(270 to 268, courtesy of Maine's district). However we then see something we've never seen before- faithless electors tip the election to the other side(there are still 21 states in which it would be entirely legal for them to do so). If anyone was going to provoke faithlessness it would be Trump, after all, and there has already been one elector making noise about how she might be faithless(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/03/how-a-faithless-elector-in-georgia-could-cost-donald-trump-an-electoral-college-vote-explained/). Only 2 need to defect.

Importantly this means that Trump hasn't been discredited by defeat- he won, and it was stolen, will be the narrative even among his Republican opponents(and indeed most independents, and even many Democrats, will see it that way as well).

Now, consider what the following 4 years will be like. We're at the point in the business cycle where we should expect a downturn sometime in the next four years... not only that, but there are suggestions of a potentially imminent financial crisis(http://moneyweek.com/us-house-prices-cause-of-the-next-financial-crisis/) as well. Any positive action Hillary might take to alleviate things will be stoppered by a Republican congress that is even more implacably opposed to her then it was to Obama(if that's even possible)- she "stole the election" after all.

So, the 2018 congressional elections are a landslide favouring the Republicans(as always it is the party holding the presidency that is blamed for the problems of the day). Trump kicks off his third presidential campaign the day after said elections, proclaiming them a rebuke of the illegitimate Clinton presidency, and proceeds to win the Republican primaries much as he did in 2016(if anything his support should be higher given the circumstances of his defeat and the public hate for the Clinton presidency).

Clinton chooses to contest the 2020 election, and wards of any primary challenges. Trump is then able  to achieve a clear victory in the presidential election, mostly through increasing his margins among white voters and increased defection to third parties by Clinton voters. This is coupled with further gains for the Republicans in the senate.

Trump is thus inaugurated in 2021, and the Trumpification of the Republican party is far more secure then it would have been if he had won in 2016- after all, he has won not 1 but 2 primary campaigns, there have been 4 years of bellyaching about how he was the legitimate winner in 2016 and he is likely to benefit from a cyclical upswing over the course of his first term. Courtesy of this and a poor Democratic challenger in 2024 he wins reelection...

Nightmare scenario? Well no, the nightmare would be him kicking of WW3 in his first term thus rendering the 2024 presidential election a non-issue.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 08:23:32 AM »

I doubt this would happen... I really don't know what the perceived danger level is of Trump compared to that of Goldwater, McGovern or even Reagan. Is this just people freaking out with something that is new and that they are against or is Trump truly a clear and present danger? If there is a clear and present danger, how, if anything can we do to protect our country or our selves?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2016, 08:28:25 AM »

(This probably belongs in Election Trends / What-if)

2018 is going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats, unless President Clinton is really successful or President Trump is a horrifying failure.  The Democrats will have 23 seats up, compared with 8 for the Republicans.  Democrats will be attempting to retain seats in MT, ND, IN, WV, MO.  It's way too early to project, but right now I'd guess we'll have 55 Republican Senators in 2019.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2016, 08:42:27 AM »

Difficult situation. I think the Trumpster should not be president under any circumstances, because he’s dangerous. Mentally unfit and unfit because of his lack of knowledge.

However, I must say though, if I were elected president through a faithless elector despite having lost the PV, I would consider to do the following: Ask my VP to step down immediately, appoint the actual winner VP under the 25th amendment and then resign myself, so that he/she can take over as soon as congress has confirmed the nomination.

Another comment on your points: Whoever loses this time, will definitely not run/win the nomination in four years.
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Jesus save us
NJR
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2016, 09:05:39 AM »

Another comment on your points: Whoever loses this time, will definitely not run/win the nomination in four years.
In general I'd agree. But if the narrative is that the election was stolen by a faithless elector, perhaps not?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2016, 09:13:26 AM »

Another comment on your points: Whoever loses this time, will definitely not run/win the nomination in four years.
In general I'd agree. But if the narrative is that the election was stolen by a faithless elector, perhaps not?

I just don’t see how the GOP nominates him again, even under these circumstances. If they go with another crazy, it’ll be Cruz. If they learned their lesson, some Kasich/Baker/Rauner/Haley/Sandoval type will be the nominee.
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Jesus save us
NJR
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 09:16:19 AM »

Another comment on your points: Whoever loses this time, will definitely not run/win the nomination in four years.
In general I'd agree. But if the narrative is that the election was stolen by a faithless elector, perhaps not?

I just don’t see how the GOP nominates him again, even under these circumstances. If they go with another crazy, it’ll be Cruz. If they learned their lesson, some Kasich/Baker/Rauner/Haley/Sandoval type will be the nominee.
His opponents in the Republican party are split between the movement conservatives who'll back Cruz and the moderates/establishment who'll back x. He doesn't need an outright majority, just a plurality.

And given that there'll be 4 years of bellyaching about how the "stolen election", well. I think he could hold onto a plurality.
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 08:06:19 PM »

Republicans will never nominate Trump in 2020 because
1. Trump University
2. Trump Foundation
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