FL-OpinionSavvy: Clinton +1
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  FL-OpinionSavvy: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: FL-OpinionSavvy: Clinton +1  (Read 1729 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 30, 2016, 10:14:43 AM »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/781873313324732416
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/09/30/poll-clinton-leads-by-1-in-fl/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OS-FL-General-9.28.16.pdf

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46% 
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 10:22:21 AM »

It's beginning to look like a landslide folks. Nice!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2016, 10:25:40 AM »

The crosstabs have Trump winning voters under 30(!):

Trump 48%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

They’ve also got Trump with 33% of blacks and 52% of Hispanics.  In fact, while they have him over 50% among Hispanics, he’s under 50% among whites.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2016, 10:26:45 AM »

So, unchanged since August?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2016, 10:33:59 AM »


Their last poll, 8/10, had her up 1, and RCP had her up 2.2. Trump was up 1 on RCP on 9/18, so the point is, she's recovering.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2016, 10:40:00 AM »

Solid results for H!
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 10:40:33 AM »


change the title to Clinton +0.3%!

it is Clinton 46.6% TRUMP 46.3%

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RJEvans
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 10:41:41 AM »

The crosstabs have Trump winning voters under 30(!):

Trump 48%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

They’ve also got Trump with 33% of blacks and 52% of Hispanics.  In fact, while they have him over 50% among Hispanics, he’s under 50% among whites.


I really do wonder if 1) pollsters are vastly underestimating Latino turnout and 2) oversampling Trump's support among this group.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2016, 10:41:52 AM »

Whatever your mother did while you were in the womb, it was inhuman.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2016, 10:47:31 AM »

The crosstabs have Trump winning voters under 30(!):

Trump 48%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

They’ve also got Trump with 33% of blacks and 52% of Hispanics.  In fact, while they have him over 50% among Hispanics, he’s under 50% among whites.


I really do wonder if 1) pollsters are vastly underestimating Latino turnout and 2) oversampling Trump's support among this group.

But, there have been a ton of polls, both nationally and in individual states, with age gaps that look very different than 2012.  I could see an argument for a smaller age gap- largely due to 65+ voters trending Democratic because of a dislike of Trump not being a normal candidate and under 30 voters voting at lower rates, more for third parties, and some "Trump-Sanders" swing voters.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2016, 10:52:48 AM »

The crosstabs have Trump winning voters under 30(!):

Trump 48%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

They’ve also got Trump with 33% of blacks and 52% of Hispanics.  In fact, while they have him over 50% among Hispanics, he’s under 50% among whites.


I really do wonder if 1) pollsters are vastly underestimating Latino turnout and 2) oversampling Trump's support among this group.

FWIW this happened with Trump analogue, David Duke, in his gubernatorial run in the 90s. The polls overstated Duke's position and he lost by more than predicted because the polls bungled reaching out to blacks.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2016, 04:38:42 PM »


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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2016, 04:52:49 PM »

Trump wins young voters and latinos, while taking 30% of blacks and only barely ahead with whites, yeah sure.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2016, 04:54:00 PM »

The crosstabs of this poll are ridiculous.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2016, 05:03:54 PM »

The crosstabs of this poll are ridiculous.

Absolutely, even their gender numbers make absolutely no sense, let alone their race/ethnicity numbers, regional numbers, etc...

I guess this is why they have a C- rating on 538, which is pretty much as close to junk as you can get on that site.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2016, 12:00:17 AM »

The crosstabs of this poll are ridiculous.

This is the definition of a junk poll. 
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