Fox - National: Clinton +3

[cinyc]

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

Well, regardless of sample size though, wouldn't these stats imply a Clinton lead of 50 points nationally? (why aren't I up 50?!? jk)

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https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

It just doesn't seem to add up to me, but there has to be some explanation. Maybe Rural turnout is super high, Urban is low, and Suburban is in the middle? Idk...

Or maybe urban only includes central cities, suburban most of the traditional suburbs, and rural the exurbs and rural areas?

[PresidentSamTilden]

^ Yeah, something like that could make sense also. Either way, pretty interesting.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

urban: Clinton +37
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +29

That can't be right, unless they're using an odd definition of rural. So Clinton is leading in urban areas by 37 (alright), in suburban areas by 9 (i'm skeptical, but we can go with it), and leads by 3 nationally? In a mostly urban country?

Maybe the MoE on that stuff is super high or something?

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

When they say that we are mostly urban, their definition of urban is urban + suburban, I'm 99% sure.

[Mr. Morden]

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

Well, regardless of sample size though, wouldn't these stats imply a Clinton lead of 50 points nationally? (why aren't I up 50?!? jk)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

It just doesn't seem to add up to me, but there has to be some explanation. Maybe Rural turnout is super high, Urban is low, and Suburban is in the middle? Idk...

The fact that the number of urban poll respondents is so small indicates that they're defining "urban" narrowly.

[Alcon]

urban: Clinton +37
suburban: Clinton +9
rural: Trump +29

That can't be right, unless they're using an odd definition of rural. So Clinton is leading in urban areas by 37 (alright), in suburban areas by 9 (i'm skeptical, but we can go with it), and leads by 3 nationally? In a mostly urban country?


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Maybe the MoE on that stuff is super high or something?

The urban sample is smaller than both the suburban and rural samples, judging by the subsample MoEs.  Though I guess it's not clear if it's still smaller than the other two after weighting, as that info isn't given.  But in terms of the raw number of people who responded to the poll, the "urban" sample is smaller than both suburban and rural.

When they say that we are mostly urban, their definition of urban is urban + suburban, I'm 99% sure.

Yeah.  The Census definition of "urban," even at its most conservative, basically includes any area within a reasonably-sized metropolis.  The vast majority of those areas are actually suburban.  A pretty small proportion of America actually lives in large cities, which is basically the urban category on exit polls.

[dspNY]

If Clinton leads Trump on the honesty question then Trump is drawing dead

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

Because they think a woman's place is in the kitchen.

[bilaps]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

The answer lies within your question, young Padawan.

Well, you post on this forum like an 11yr old uneducated kid so maybe you could tell us

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why do uneducated men hate her?

The answer lies within your question, young Padawan.

Well, you post on this forum like an 11yr old uneducated kid so maybe you could tell us

Wasn't that quote from a 900-year old alien?

[Mr. Morden]

Is the rural/suburban/rural thing even based on the pollster's judgment of the poll respondent's address's geography?  Or is it based on self-reporting?  Do they just ask the person "Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural area?", and take that as the answer without doing any checking?  Do pollsters even ask for the respondent's address in a national poll?  If not, then it's got to be based on self-reporting, no?

[cinyc]

Is the rural/suburban/rural thing even based on the pollster's judgment of the poll respondent's address's geography?  Or is it based on self-reporting?  Do they just ask the person "Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural area?", and take that as the answer without doing any checking?  Do pollsters even ask for the respondent's address in a national poll?  If not, then it's got to be based on self-reporting, no?

In theory, it should be known to the pollster, as the pollster knows the phone number they called and can (at least for landlines) associate the first three digits after the area code with a particular geographic area.  I.P. Addresses should be somewhat traceable in online polls too - though that might be trickier.  The hardest to geographically correlate might be cell phones, since a Nevada resident can have a Los Angeles area code on his cell phone, and cell phone prefixes aren't necessarily as determinative of the exact geographical location where you live, but even then, competent pollsters might be able to use billing info to do so.

[Virginiá]

since a Nevada resident can have a Los Angeles area code on his cell phone, and cell phone prefixes aren't necessarily as determinative of the exact geographical location where you live, but even then, competent pollsters might be able to use billing info to do so.

Not to mention if internet polls get people using phones or mobile hotspots, which can give an IP address that is way off. My mobile IP corresponds with a town 146 miles from me, pretty far north. Not even close. Static IPs for cable/etc are more accurate but can have some issues from time to time as well.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean, I take it that every other demographic crosstab is based on self-reporting.  They ask "Are you male or female?", "How old are you?", "Are you a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?", "Do you have a college degree?", "What is your race?", etc.  I'm assuming that all of those are based on self-reporting, and they're not going to investigate people's answers to see if they're lying.  So my guess is that urban/suburban/rural is self-reported too.

[cinyc]

I mean, I take it that every other demographic crosstab is based on self-reporting.  They ask "Are you male or female?", "How old are you?", "Are you a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?", "Do you have a college degree?", "What is your race?", etc.  I'm assuming that all of those are based on self-reporting, and they're not going to investigate people's answers to see if they're lying.  So my guess is that urban/suburban/rural is self-reported too.

I doubt it.  That would lead to inconsistent results from poll to poll.  Someone can always ask the Fox News pollsters how they define urban/suburban/rural.  I don't see it in the poll release.

The pollster could also ask for a zip code at the end of the call and then correlate it with their definition of urban/suburban/rural.  That would be the easiest way of doing it.