How do ex-Catholics vote?
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  How do ex-Catholics vote?
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Author Topic: How do ex-Catholics vote?  (Read 2869 times)
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BRTD
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« on: September 30, 2016, 07:55:46 PM »

Something that I just thought of and realized doesn't get mentioned much despite tons of talk about how Catholics vote.

By most surveys a slim majority of ex-Catholics are converts to other denominations of Christianity (like about 53%), with the rest mostly being "none" and a small amount to non-Christian religions. The ones that are still Christian are majority evangelical (though not overwhelmingly) but doubtfully as Republican as white evangelicals since many are Hispanic, and they're probably more likely to be progressive evangelicals. And of course the "nones"/non-Christians would be overwhelmingly Democratic, like 75%. The ones still Christian are probably about 2/3 Republican. So overall that'd equal around 55-60% D. Any other thoughts?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2016, 02:04:04 PM »

Relevant

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 02:13:46 PM »

Let's take a look at your hypothesis using the above chart.

Ex-Catholic Nones and Others would be very Democratic. Likewise I really doubt that many Catholic to Mainline Christians are country club Republicans like the stereotype might suggest. That leaves Evangelicals.

The way pollsters and the media describe Evangelical almost defaults them to conservatives except for a few emergent types. I'm not so sure how progressive white ex-Catholic Evangelicals really are. I mean I know your anecdotal side, of things, but I have counter anecdotal evidence: the ex-Catholics in my church (including my father) are conservative with the zeal of an ex convert. Are there any decent polls of ex-Catholics?

Lastly, how do Hispanic evangelical vote? I have some vague recollection that they are more GOP than most Hispanics but still lean D.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 02:43:41 PM »

Likewise I really doubt that many Catholic to Mainline Christians are country club Republicans like the stereotype might suggest.

Catholic-to-mainline converts? Who converts to mainline Protestant denominations these days?  Wink

(Other than perhaps some more liberal-minded Catholics, I think that mainline Protestants converting to Catholicism is more of a thing. For example, many of the Episcopalians who value the Catholic aspects of traditional Anglican doctrine and practice would be among that group, just as many of the Episcopalians who value the Protestant aspects of traditional Anglican doctrine and practice convert to Evangelical and/or non-Evangelical traditional and confessional Protestant groups. And both of these groups within the Episcopal Church are often politically and socially conservative. Hence, why so many of them are leaving the denomination. Tongue ).
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Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 03:28:14 PM »

As a member of the (understandably but very unfortunately) Titanium R None->Mainline Protestant->Catholic community, the answer is almost certainly 'closer to me on most issues than my own demographic'.
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BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2016, 07:23:25 PM »

Likewise I really doubt that many Catholic to Mainline Christians are country club Republicans like the stereotype might suggest.

Catholic-to-mainline converts? Who converts to mainline Protestant denominations these days?  Wink

(Other than perhaps some more liberal-minded Catholics, I think that mainline Protestants converting to Catholicism is more of a thing. For example, many of the Episcopalians who value the Catholic aspects of traditional Anglican doctrine and practice would be among that group, just as many of the Episcopalians who value the Protestant aspects of traditional Anglican doctrine and practice convert to Evangelical and/or non-Evangelical traditional and confessional Protestant groups. And both of these groups within the Episcopal Church are often politically and socially conservative. Hence, why so many of them are leaving the denomination. Tongue ).

Uh, look at the chart above. Catholic->Mainline is about twice as common as Mainline->Catholic.

In fact, Mainliners don't have too much of a problem getting converts. It's just that their retention sucks.


http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/chapter-2-religious-switching-and-intermarriage

A more recent survey from 2015. Mainliners lose 1.7 members for every convert they gain. Catholics lose 6.5.

And looking at the tabs above, a greater percentage of mainliners are converts more than any Christian category, as it's over 41%, with evangelicals just under 40% converts as Catholics at less than 10% converts.
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BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 07:34:11 PM »

Let's take a look at your hypothesis using the above chart.

Ex-Catholic Nones and Others would be very Democratic. Likewise I really doubt that many Catholic to Mainline Christians are country club Republicans like the stereotype might suggest.
Stereotypes that aren't too relevant today. In Minnesota the only stereotype associated with being born Catholic or mainline Protestant (which usually means Lutheran) is what your last name sounds like. No one even expects there to be class differences. Mainliners in general as country club Republicans is also at least three decades out of date, look at how mainline Protestants vote in New England (the Republican lean of white mainliners nationally still is mostly

That leaves Evangelicals.

The way pollsters and the media describe Evangelical almost defaults them to conservatives except for a few emergent types. I'm not so sure how progressive white ex-Catholic Evangelicals really are. I mean I know your anecdotal side, of things, but I have counter anecdotal evidence: the ex-Catholics in my church (including my father) are conservative with the zeal of an ex convert. Are there any decent polls of ex-Catholics?

Lastly, how do Hispanic evangelical vote? I have some vague recollection that they are more GOP than most Hispanics but still lean D.

I think most Catholic->Evangelical converts are more the suburban/exurban megachurch type than some stereotypical religious right zealot, but still Republican. And accurate summary of Hispanics.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2016, 10:34:59 AM »

As a member of the (understandably but very unfortunately) Titanium R None->Mainline Protestant->Catholic community,

It's interesting that there would be a community as such defined by this background. What's its profile/characteristics?
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2016, 02:58:53 PM »

As a member of the (understandably but very unfortunately) Titanium R None->Mainline Protestant->Catholic community,

It's interesting that there would be a community as such defined by this background. What's its profile/characteristics?

There isn't really a community as such. I just didn't want to say the word 'demographic' twice in one sentence.
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2016, 09:24:49 PM »

There obviously isn't an "ex-Catholic" community either, since as noted they form a huge spectrum in terms of politics and current religious beliefs.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2016, 09:43:24 PM »


Wait, black protestants never leave their religion, but there are mainline and evangelical protestants becoming black protestants.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2016, 03:56:43 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2016, 04:03:49 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.
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BRTD
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 05:25:05 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 05:43:54 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

     They do lose a lot of ground relative to Evangelicals despite both groups starting off with similar numbers.
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BRTD
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2016, 10:18:09 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

     They do lose a lot of ground relative to Evangelicals despite both groups starting off with similar numbers.

But they also gain a lot of converts from evangelicals too, so it almost cancels out. Meanwhile compare the Catholic->Evangelical vs. Evangelical->Catholic numbers, or even the Catholic->Mainline vs. Mainline->Catholic numbers, which kind of shatters the premise in PR's post.
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2016, 10:43:25 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

Similar retention problems, not necessarily similar problems attracting converts.
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BRTD
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2016, 11:30:34 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

Similar retention problems, not necessarily similar problems attracting converts.

That graph though should show just how inane the idea that Catholics have super high retention rates on paper even if not all of them still act as Catholic is though. In fact it shows that Catholic retention isn't even better than average. That's why I saw that premise as so ridiculous, and the data backs me up.
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Nathan
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2016, 12:01:16 AM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

Similar retention problems, not necessarily similar problems attracting converts.

That graph though should show just how inane the idea that Catholics have super high retention rates on paper even if not all of them still act as Catholic is though. In fact it shows that Catholic retention isn't even better than average. That's why I saw that premise as so ridiculous, and the data backs me up.

I wasn't disagreeing. There's, starting very recently and probably too recently to do much good, been an increasing awareness within Catholicism that cultural Catholicism among white Americans can't be relied on any more and has been a bit of a paper tiger for a couple of generations now.
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angus
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2016, 11:52:37 AM »

How does one become an ex-Catholic.  One has to be excommunicated by the Church.  For example, if you stop going to mass, and say you don't believe in that stuff anyway, but haven't actually been excommunicated, doesn't the Catholic church still consider you a Catholic?
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Nathan
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2016, 12:17:03 PM »

How does one become an ex-Catholic.  One has to be excommunicated by the Church.  For example, if you stop going to mass, and say you don't believe in that stuff anyway, but haven't actually been excommunicated, doesn't the Catholic church still consider you a Catholic?


The Church does, yeah, but Pew doesn't.
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BRTD
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2016, 12:28:53 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

Similar retention problems, not necessarily similar problems attracting converts.

That graph though should show just how inane the idea that Catholics have super high retention rates on paper even if not all of them still act as Catholic is though. In fact it shows that Catholic retention isn't even better than average. That's why I saw that premise as so ridiculous, and the data backs me up.

I wasn't disagreeing. There's, starting very recently and probably too recently to do much good, been an increasing awareness within Catholicism that cultural Catholicism among white Americans can't be relied on any more and has been a bit of a paper tiger for a couple of generations now.

Then why don't Atlas posters in general realize that?
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Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2016, 12:36:32 PM »

My mistake Goldwater. The guy who made the graph noticed his mistake and made an updated graph with more religions.



Pink is Mormon, Green is Jewish.

This graph could be read to imply that mainlines and Catholics are facing more similar problems than either would like to acknowledge.

Not really. The mainlines are at least getting a non-neglible of converts in.

Similar retention problems, not necessarily similar problems attracting converts.

That graph though should show just how inane the idea that Catholics have super high retention rates on paper even if not all of them still act as Catholic is though. In fact it shows that Catholic retention isn't even better than average. That's why I saw that premise as so ridiculous, and the data backs me up.

I wasn't disagreeing. There's, starting very recently and probably too recently to do much good, been an increasing awareness within Catholicism that cultural Catholicism among white Americans can't be relied on any more and has been a bit of a paper tiger for a couple of generations now.

Then why don't Atlas posters in general realize that?

Posters who don't realize it (including me) tend to live in places where this collapse is less advanced. We've been over this.
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BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2016, 12:25:03 AM »

How does one become an ex-Catholic.  One has to be excommunicated by the Church.  For example, if you stop going to mass, and say you don't believe in that stuff anyway, but haven't actually been excommunicated, doesn't the Catholic church still consider you a Catholic?


The Church does, yeah, but Pew doesn't.

I also recall reading that the list of excommunicable offenses includes open expression of opposition to fundamental church teaching, which would be done by anyone who is openly now a non-Christian or converts to a different denomination. The formal excommunication process obviously isn't done on almost everyone who falls into this category, but it's not really done at all anymore (excommunication was obviously designed for kings in the Middle Ages, not people in the modern day.) So essentially yes, stating that you're a non-Christian or a non-Catholic Christian does equal a de facto excommunication. My church's lead pastor for example unless he recanted and returned wouldn't be allowed to take part in any Catholic sacraments or receive a Catholic funeral. This is of course virtually never an issue because someone who has renounced the church isn't going to care.

Posters who don't realize it (including me) tend to live in places where this collapse is less advanced. We've been over this.

Hmmm, so Minneapolis is closer to the rule than the exception?
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Nathan
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2016, 12:29:26 AM »

How does one become an ex-Catholic.  One has to be excommunicated by the Church.  For example, if you stop going to mass, and say you don't believe in that stuff anyway, but haven't actually been excommunicated, doesn't the Catholic church still consider you a Catholic?


The Church does, yeah, but Pew doesn't.

I also recall reading that the list of excommunicable offenses includes open expression of opposition to fundamental church teaching, which would be done by anyone who is openly now a non-Christian or converts to a different denomination. The formal excommunication process obviously isn't done on almost everyone who falls into this category, but it's not really done at all anymore (excommunication was obviously designed for kings in the Middle Ages, not people in the modern day.) So essentially yes, stating that you're a non-Christian or a non-Catholic Christian does equal a de facto excommunication. My church's lead pastor for example unless he recanted and returned wouldn't be allowed to take part in any Catholic sacraments or receive a Catholic funeral. This is of course virtually never an issue because someone who has renounced the church isn't going to care.

The reason the Church still considers these people Catholic for statistical purposes is simply because it's hard to keep track and count of these things.

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Hmmm, so Minneapolis is closer to the rule than the exception?
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As far as I know, these days yes, but don't mistake this for me conceding that that's a good thing.
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