Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Pennsylvania
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Poll
Question: Rate Pennsylvania and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Pennsylvania  (Read 2934 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: October 01, 2016, 01:20:31 PM »
« edited: October 01, 2016, 11:26:22 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings



Safe Clinton: 179
Likely Clinton: 22
Lean Clinton: 16
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 60

Clinton: 217
Trump: 115
Toss-Up: 69

Predictions



Clinton: 267
Trump: 134

Pennsylvania: Lean D, 51-46 Clinton. This one will put her over the top in the predictions if Clinton is the winner.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2016, 01:23:16 PM »
Likely D. Trump just can't win when he's getting absolutely obliterated in the Philly suburbs the way he is now.

Clinton 52
Trump 45
Others 3
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 01:29:42 PM »
The suburbs will keep the state in the Dem column, despite the best efforts of the Luzerne fascists.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 01:34:23 PM »
I voted "Lean D."
But it really is somewhere right in between "Lean D" and "Likely D."
I am also starting to believe what many here have said about Pennsylvania in many past threads ..... that it is "fools gold" for trump.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 01:35:27 PM »
Lean D, would be surprised to see Trump win this state.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2016, 01:41:33 PM »
If it were still July, I might say Lean D, but at this point, I'm going to say Likely D, since Trump hasn't led in a single recent poll, and he often trails by a decent margin in the polls. Hillary wins 51-45.
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 02:30:45 PM »
Leans D, same as the election. It's pretty clear that when Trump was at his closest to Clinton (just before the debate) that it would have been the next state to flip - and would have handed Trump his first lead of the campaign.

At this point, it is closer to Likely D than Toss-Up, by a lot.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2016, 02:55:20 PM »
Leans Dem

Clinton 50
Trump 43
Johnson 6
Stein 1
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2016, 03:31:22 PM »
Lean D

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 46%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2016, 04:12:15 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on October 01, 2016, 01:23:16 PM
Likely D. Trump just can't win when he's getting absolutely obliterated in the Philly suburbs the way he is now.

Clinton 52
Trump 45
Others 3
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mencken
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2016, 04:19:16 PM »
Somewhere in between Lean D and Tossup.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2016, 05:05:13 PM »
A republican can't win PA when they are being absolutley destroyed in the urban areas, especially in allegheny county.

Likely D
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Nyvin
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2016, 05:27:52 PM »
How fitting Pennsylvania brings Clinton over 270 in this mock election!
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2016, 05:30:11 PM »
Toss-up. I do believe she has an edge but it should be close in the end.

Clinton 50%
Trump 48%
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2016, 05:31:09 PM »
Tossup

Trump 49
Clinton 48
Other 3
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2016, 05:53:43 PM »
lol
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2016, 06:08:35 PM »
Tossup/Slight Lean Clinton. It's at about 2% at this point, so it's not a true lean.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2016, 11:26:40 PM »
Ratings and Predictions of previous states are now updated.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2016, 12:12:30 AM »
Likely D.

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 43%
Johnson: 6%
Other: 2%
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2016, 02:55:57 AM »
Quote from: Titanium D Nevada on October 01, 2016, 01:41:33 PM
If it were still July, I might say Lean D, but at this point, I'm going to say Likely D, since Trump hasn't led in a single recent poll, and he often trails by a decent margin in the polls. Hillary wins 51-45.

wrong.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3114006-UPI-CVoter-2016-State-poll-0925.html
PA: Sep. 12-25    UPI/CVOTER  605 LV  TRUMP 48% | Hillary 47%. TRUMP +1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now
PA: Sep. 21-26    Google Consumer 734 LV  TRUMP 36% | Hillary 35%. TRUMP +1%
PA: Sep. 14-20    Google Consumer 772 LV  TRUMP 36% | Hillary 35%. TRUMP +1%
PA: Sep. 16-22    Ipsos    387 LV  TRUMP 46% | Hillary 46%. TRUMP +1% (demicals)
 
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Tiger front
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2016, 03:23:59 AM »
Likely D.
Clinton 52%
Trump 45%
Other 3%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2016, 03:47:06 AM »
Lean Democratic.

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 45%
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2016, 02:49:24 PM »
Lean D, Clinton 51-47
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2016, 09:53:43 AM »
I'd say PA is safe D at this point. No way Trump is going to win here if the polling in the Philly burbs is correct.
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afleitch
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2016, 10:19:37 AM »
I have a feeling they might call this state (alongside Virginia) after the polls close, or at least within a half hour.
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