NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way)
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  NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way)
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Author Topic: NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way)  (Read 2757 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 03, 2016, 01:45:36 PM »
« edited: October 03, 2016, 04:44:30 PM by dspNY »

H2H: Clinton 46, Trump 45
3-way: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2*

*Stein is not on the ballot in NC

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 01:46:51 PM »

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 01:48:19 PM »

NC and FL clearly moving Hillary's way...
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 01:51:01 PM »

Men outnumber women 51/49 in this poll so that makes it even better for Clinton. That's the easiest crosstab to correct for (women are usually between 53-55% of the electorate in a large state)
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RJEvans
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 01:55:32 PM »

Good numbers for Clinton and in line with what Quinn. found.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2016, 01:58:13 PM »

Seems pretty much certain that NC will at least trend pretty strongly Democratic this year.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2016, 01:59:23 PM »

Going to be a bummer for that 2% when they learn that Crazy Jill isn't on the ballot.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2016, 02:00:34 PM »

Seems pretty much certain that NC will at least trend pretty strongly Democratic this year.
Sort of amazing how the GOP is letting North Carolina slip away, just as they did with Virginia and Colorado. I guess a similar dynamic is occurring in Ohio, but that state was never "safe" for Democrats .
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2016, 02:07:17 PM »

Wish Clinton's lead was larger, but it's OK.
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Shadows
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2016, 02:10:00 PM »

Romney did not win NC by a landslide or 5-6%. He barely won it with around 1%. 2008 Obama won NC. NC has been very close, the last 2 elections Now it is obvious that the dufus Trump has fallen nationally by 3-4-5% odd maybe. So isn't it obvious NC would shift from +1/+2 Trump to +1/+2/+3 Clinton?

Some of the comments are hilarious & the reasons I call people Super pac trolls. 1-2-3% Margin is no big deal. At any time if Trump keeps his discipline, has strong debates & Hillary screws up or wikileaks reveals something terrible, anytime there can be a 3-4% swing.

If Trump could lose 3-4% in 1 week, then why can he not gain 3-4%? It is clearly that Ohio is tilt Republican at this point, Florida varies from toss-up to tilt Democrat, NC is a toss-up! None of theses states are settled!

The states which tend to have big swings are CO, PA. These states could go from Clinton +1/+2 (Close to a toss-up at best for Trump) to suddenly +11/+12, the later is ideally the margin a Democrat should win with!
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2016, 02:10:56 PM »

Romney did not win NC by a landslide or 5-6%. He barely won it with around 1%. 2008 Obama won NC. NC has been very close, the last 2 elections Now it is obvious that the dufus Trump has fallen nationally by 3-4-5% odd maybe. So isn't it obvious NC would shift from +1/+2 Trump to +1/+2/+3 Clinton?

Some of the comments are hilarious & the reasons I call people Super pac trolls. 1-2-3% Margin is no big deal. At any time if Trump keeps his discipline, has strong debates & Hillary screws up or wikileaks reveals something terrible, anytime there can be a 3-4% swing.

If Trump could lose 3-4% in 1 week, then why can he not gain 3-4%? It is clearly that Ohio is tilt Republican at this point, Florida varies from toss-up to tilt Democrat, NC is a toss-up! None of theses states are settled!

The states which tend to have big swings are CO, PA. These states could go from Clinton +1/+2 (Close to a toss-up at best for Trump) to suddenly +11/+12, the later is ideally the margin a Democrat should win with!

Pennsylvania has a very static, inelastic electorate
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2016, 02:19:45 PM »

No one should take Selzer seriously after the disaster in Iowa earlier this year, but good news anyway.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2016, 02:20:13 PM »

Good result.

Let's hope it's a new trend in Clinton's favor.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 02:31:25 PM »

Nice poll!  More icing on the cake heading Hilldawg's way. 

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 02:40:01 PM »

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2016, 02:43:01 PM »

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.

Most likely voter screens will accept "probably will vote."
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2016, 02:52:31 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2016, 02:55:36 PM by HillOfANight »

It's good to plan for the worst case scenario.

Pew did research on this, comparing pre and post election poll and voting responses and found...
http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2016/01/PM_2016-01-07_likely-voters_FINAL.pdf
http://www.pewresearch.org/2016/01/07/can-likely-voter-models-be-improved/

Of those that said they would definitely vote or 9-10/10, 77% did.
Of those that said they would probably vote or 7-8/10, only 36% did.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2016, 02:53:49 PM »

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.

Most likely voter screens will accept "probably will vote."

Some do, some don't.  But rather than screening particular voters as yes-or-no, I think they'd do better with a probabilistic model, e.g.:

100% weight if "already voted"
95% if "certain to vote"
80% if "very likely to vote"
50% if "somewhat likely to vote"
etc.

Or maybe some pollsters do this and I'm just not aware of it.  (Don't quibble about the numbers; they're just for example purposes.)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2016, 02:56:45 PM »

Excellent poll as Bloomberg has a super strict likely voter screen.

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rxPNLi0mj2SU/v0
How so? They include you if you say you voted or will definitely vote... Not like some weird polls asking if you know who your representative is.

Most likely voter screens will accept "probably will vote."

Some do, some don't.  But rather than screening particular voters as yes-or-no, I think they'd do better with a probabilistic model, e.g.:

100% weight if "already voted"
95% if "certain to vote"
80% if "very likely to vote"
50% if "somewhat likely to vote"
etc.

Or maybe some pollsters do this and I'm just not aware of it.  (Don't quibble about the numbers; they're just for example purposes.)

That would make the most sense.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2016, 04:30:12 PM »

It might help if we were to include "Selzer" in the title.
So "Bloomberg/Selzer."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2016, 04:46:30 PM »

It might help if we were to include "Selzer" in the title.
So "Bloomberg/Selzer."

In this campaign, what we really need is Alka/Selzer.
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2016, 04:47:31 PM »

I made the point about the 51% male 49% female not being right. Therefore I think this poll understates Clinton by a couple of points
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2016, 04:48:29 PM »

truly beautiful to see North Carolina and Florida moving the Queen's direction.
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mencken
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2016, 05:55:27 PM »

In the past few months the number of polls with Clinton leading in North Carolina have vastly outnumbered the ones with Trump leading or tied.  Even though it's polling like a toss-up, it's hard to see Clinton losing here with such a persistent lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2016, 05:57:23 PM »

absolutely correct.

but in a general year the same trends should work in the other direction.
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