Franklin & Marshall: Clinton +9 in PA

[Ozymandias]

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2016/10/03/clinton-gains-in-new-fm-pennsylvania-poll/

Clinton - 47
Trump - 38

Back on Aug 25-29, F&M had the race at Clinton 45, Trump 40 (article doesn't indicate current survey dates).

Above results are for likely voters-- Clinton's lead increases to 12 among RV

Also, they have Mcginty 41 - Toomey 35 among LV

[Lief 🗽]

Absolutely magnificent!!!

[Podgy the Bear]

Great news!  And McGinty pulling ahead as well...

[Lief 🗽]

hahahahah Toomey at 35!!!

[ApatheticAustrian]

B+ and soft republican house effect says 538.....

[senyor_brownbear]

It has been an incredibly good polling day for Clinton.

[Ebsy]

Wow!

[Ronnie]

I just wonder why Pennsylvania and Ohio diverged so much this year.  Last cycle, they were just a couple points off from each other, but now it seems like they might be 8-10 points apart.  I guess it's because Ohio doesn't really have an equivalent to the Philly suburbs, in which Hillary is apparently demolishing Trump.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the cycle of this elections holds, she will lose 2-3 points this week....without doing anything wrong, just through sheer gravity.

let's find out if the debates have finally changed anything from this groundhog day scenario.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I just wonder why Pennsylvania and Ohio diverged so much this year.  Last cycle, they were just a couple points off from each other, but now it seems like they might be 8-10 points apart.  I guess it's because Ohio doesn't really have an equivalent to the Philly suburbs, in which Hillary is apparently demolishing Trump.

no hyper-center like philly, no slow de-blue-collar-i-zation, even less minorities and more whites...

and trump can't really be hit with the auto-bailout-club against republicans, only pence.

i pray that WI is holding but feingold should assure that.

[dspNY]

Great poll for Clinton, nothing else to add

[Lief 🗽]

I just wonder why Pennsylvania and Ohio diverged so much this year.  Last cycle, they were just a couple points off from each other, but now it seems like they might be 8-10 points apart.  I guess it's because Ohio doesn't really have an equivalent to the Philly suburbs, in which Hillary is apparently demolishing Trump.

Clinton is off-setting her losses with white-working class Democrats in Pennsylvania by making gains in the Philly suburbs.  The suburbs in Ohio are less Catholic/more evangelical, less moderate, and more partisan Republican, so it's harder to off-set losses there.

[Xing]

[mark_twain]

Great poll!

Go Clinton!

[ProudModerate2]

LOL.
No, no ..... let's not get ahead of ourselves.
But the poll is very reassuring.
+9  .... Wow !

[Rand]

Crashing and burning. It won't be long before Tax Evader McPorn Star is campaigning in Oregon and New Jersey.

[dspNY]

Here's the link:

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/222225192411477697-f-m-poll-release-september-2016.pdf

Hillary is almost even on favorables (47/50) while Trump is submerged at 32/60

The Party ID is 49D/39R/11I which makes sense for PA

Only 10% of the sample was non-white

[Maxwell]

beautiful philly suburbs!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Pennsylvania and Colorado are out of reach now, we're done here.

(I assume these polls were taken before stories of Trump's pedophiliac nature came to light.)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!  Trump's crappin' the bed worse than a coked-up Saigon ladyboy with a scat fetish!

#Analysis:

Toomey @ 35%?  Oh no!  RIP PHIL : (

I told people months ago that I'd hit up a party chocked-full of middle aged Philly suburbanites and that every one of the them DESPISED the Trumpster Fire.  So what if five old farts in Scranton are going to go Obama-Obama-TRUMP because muh trade?  Southeast PA is a gersh dang bloodbath.  Deep Atlas red, ladies and germs.

Look for this trend to repeat on the other side of the Delaware aka HOCKEYDUDE'S Stomping Grounds.  

Stupendous!

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania at D+9 in Presidential polling... Trump doesn't have to win Pennsylvania to win the Presidency, but winning Republicans have at least Pennsylvania down to a sub-5 win for the Republican. Such holds this year.

McGinty going ahead of incumbent Senator Toomey in the Senatorial election? A story broke that Sen. Toomey sponsored bills that would make it easy for giant banks to swindle municipalities and state agencies with questionable financial products. Some of the municipalities hit were in Pennsylvania.

A hint to any future Senator: never vote for a bill that can hurt local governments and state agencies in your state. 

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

hahahahah Toomey at 35!!!

Lmao!!

[Figueira]

Pennsylvania at D+9 in Presidential polling... Trump doesn't have to win Pennsylvania to win the Presidency, but winning Republicans have at least Pennsylvania down to a sub-5 win for the Republican. Such holds this year.

McGinty going ahead of incumbent Senator Toomey in the Senatorial election? A story broke that Sen. Toomey sponsored bills that would make it easy for giant banks to swindle municipalities and state agencies with questionable financial products. Some of the municipalities hit were in Pennsylvania.

A hint to any future Senator: never vote for a bill that can hurt local governments and state agencies in your state. 

Hopefully Malloy isn't planning a Senate run?

[StatesPoll]

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2016/10/03/clinton-gains-in-new-fm-pennsylvania-poll/

Clinton - 47
Trump - 38

Back on Aug 25-29, F&M had the race at Clinton 45, Trump 40 (article doesn't indicate current survey dates).

Above results are for likely voters-- Clinton's lead increases to 12 among RV

Also, they have Mcginty 41 - Toomey 35 among LV

White: Hillary 47% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 5%

it's joke.

1) PA: Quinnipiac 9/27-10/2, 535 LV
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/spa10032016_crosstabs_S27kmrd.pdf

White non-college: TRUMP 56% | Hillary 35% | Johnson 3% | Stein 1%
White College grad+ : TRUMP 39% | Hillary 47% | Johnson 7% | Stein 1%  
(In PA, White Non-college : White College graduate+ ratios, about 56: 44)

2) PA: PPP 9/27-9/28, 886 LV (Page 87)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_BattlegroundStates_92916.pdf

White: TRUMP 46% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 7% | Stein 1%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2016/10/03/clinton-gains-in-new-fm-pennsylvania-poll/

Clinton - 47
Trump - 38

Back on Aug 25-29, F&M had the race at Clinton 45, Trump 40 (article doesn't indicate current survey dates).

Above results are for likely voters-- Clinton's lead increases to 12 among RV

Also, they have Mcginty 41 - Toomey 35 among LV

White: Hillary 47% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 5%

it's joke.

1) PA: Quinnipiac 9/27-10/2, 535 LV
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/spa10032016_crosstabs_S27kmrd.pdf

White non-college: TRUMP 56% | Hillary 35% | Johnson 3% | Stein 1%
White College grad+ : TRUMP 39% | Hillary 47% | Johnson 7% | Stein 1%  
(In PA, White Non-college : White College graduate+ ratios is about 56: 44)

2) PA: PPP 9/27-9/28, 886 LV (Page 87)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_BattlegroundStates_92916.pdf

White: TRUMP 46% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 7% | Stein 1%