Major Hurricane Matthew On Path to Graze FL/SE US Coast

[Ban my account ffs!]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-hurricane-matthew-to-unleash-life-threatening-flooding-haiti-cuba-bahamas/60475457

This could come to dominate the news in the coming days.  Right now the path is uncertain... but Matthew was expected to stay far enough from the coast not to have much impact other than waves.  In the past 24-36 hours, however, the models are moving the storm dangerously close to the coast.

This is bad because while it might only graze the east coast of Florida and Georgia, it remaining over the ocean will keep it from weakening much and the storm still has the potential to cut straight up into the Carolinas.

The storm is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as it reaches Florida, which would make it the first major hurricane (category 3 or higher) to affect the USA in 11 years (Wilma in 2005)... by far the longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane impact in the USA.

This is obviously a very scary prospect.  If it turns westward at all, Florida could really get it.  Already it has caused major damage in Haiti and will hit eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

[DINGO Joe]

The latest run of the Euro which just finished pushed Matthew West and has it making landfall around Melbourne/Daytona and rolling up to Savannah.

[Simfan34]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This probable near miss is still causing me and my fiancee some major hassles, moreso her than me. That's despite us living in the Midlands rather than the coast, but to evacuate the coast just in case it's needed, we have to be disrupted now in order to be ready for the evacuees in time.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

My kid is in Charleston and has to leave.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Classes have been canceled at USC as well, and the eastbound I26 lanes are being reversed later today.

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, that crazy loop that both the GFS and ECMWF are showing is unreal.  I mean Betsy did something like that 60 years ago, but man....

[Dereich]

Classes cancelled in Gainesville on Friday. Hurricanes in Florida are all fun and games when its just a Cat 1 or something, but now....now I've got two different family groups evacuating, possibly to my house.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

With the track now going back out to sea before it reaches NC, a Facebook friend of mine said this:

BREAKING:
Due to HB2, Hurricane Matthew has canceled its scheduled appearance in North Carolina.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's really weird is that the long range forecast indicates that there is a good chance that Matthew may do a loop-de-loop and come back to the Bahamas and Florida a week after being there the first time.

[Simfan34]

What's really weird is that the long range forecast indicates that there is a good chance that Matthew may do a loop-de-loop and come back to the Bahamas and Florida a week after being there the first time.

The models are starting to agree on this, since the GFS (which I posted earlier) started showing a loop track two/three days ago:



The GFS ensemble now looks like this:

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wonder if I'll have a house when I get back. They're calling for the storm to make landfall in Charleston now

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Now my Aunt and Uncle in Georgia are being evacuated. It didn't pack much of a punch in Palm Beach County, and CNN's predictions of chaos have fallen flat. The Hurricane last month that hit Tally caused more damage to the electrical grid than this one apparently did back home.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder if I'll have a house when I get back. They're calling for the storm to make landfall in Charleston now

It's only a category 1 now.  If the house survived Hugo, it should survive this.  The only structural concern is likely to be storm surge.