I know I'm not American but .................

[Democratic Hawk]

Wow, I disagree with you on almost everything.

If you got the nomination, which I would see as strange for the Democratic Party to nominate basically a liberal Republican, I believe that you would win, simply because you are in essence fairly Republican. =p

I'm confused. Who's the liberal Republican here, me or Cashcow?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The predictions here are within the bounds of reason. Why is Georgia safe hawk?

Ah, but that's were my secret weapon comes in - Zell Miller. The thing is I'd be reluctant for him to campaign for me anywhere else - but he could get some conservative Georgia Democrats and Republicans on side. I guess not many Democrats are too happy with him - but he could play well in the South. I'd keep a pretty 'big tent' and would hope to unite all wings of the Democratic Party behind my candidacy. Sadly, I'll lose votes on the Left -  but I'd hope to offset this with gains among GOP demographics. As President, I certainly wouldn't want to be in hoc to the ideologues (liberal or conservative)

I'll do what I think is right and I'll stand or fall on that

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, this map is very optimistic and assumes the GOP candidate is 'dead on arrival' in that he is in too conservative and I'm moderate enough to bring on ship moderate Republicans/conservatives

There's a few close shaves in the South but I've won my home state (Georgia), with a comforatble 59-41 margin. It's no surprise having bagged 70% of moderate vote and 30% of the conservative vote along with most independents and around 25% of Republicans. See, Democrats can be moderate enough to do well down here because I talk and act tough on the issues that matter

I've won Florida comfortably too by a margin of 53-47, easily sweeping the south-east of the state and polling very well in mid-state and not too badly even in the panhandle - for a Democrat, that is

A few southern states are very close - but I carry Arkansas (52-48), Lousiana (51-49), North Carolina (51-49) and Virginia (51-49); while the GOP takes South Carolina and Tennessee by narrow margins

In the Mid-West, I manage to make the swing states even "bluer". I pick up Iowa comfortably (54-46), as well as taking Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin out of "swing" state status. I take Missouri (52-48) and over, in the West, I take Nevada 49.8% to 48.7%

Naturally, my moderation and deliberate strategy of reaching out beyond the base has cost me votes among liberals, especially in the Pacific West and North East - but not enough to affect my chances since the support I've lost, I've more than regained elsewhere

I comfortably sweep the North East (consolidating the party's position in Pennsylvania by 55-45) and I take West Virginia by 55-45 - which just goes to show that some moderates are adverse when it comes to supporting liberals. I get 95% of the Democratic vote compared with Kerry's 70% in 2004, as well as significant support from moderate Republicans. Meanwhile, I score victories of 60% and over in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island. DC votes 91% Democratic.
However, despite my Clintonesque-victory, I lose New Hampshire to the GOP by 51-49. My populism didn't play too well there

It's been a hard campaign with me from the outside refusing to write off the South. I've targetted the "red" states and proved my metal; while my running mate has proved popular in shoring up the Democratic base

Today, it's a new era. I have garnered the most formidable coalition since FDR (after eight years of gross fiscal incompetence and ideological folly).

My overall margin of victory is 54-43, with 3% going to minor parties

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Final map:



Afterword, my overwhelming victory in Georgia has seen former Senator Max Cleland (a true American hero) defeat Saxby Chambliss in a re-run of 2002 by 53/47

It was either persuade Max or persuade Zell to run - and I'm delighted Max was forthcoming in doing so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Prior to these elections, the US Senate was as follows:

Republican 53
Democrats 46
Independent 1 (Bernie Sanders)

In 2004, the Dems gained two seats with Bob Casey defeating GOP incumbent Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania - sorry, Phil and picked-up the open seat in Tennessee (or am I just dreamin )while retiring Vermont Independent Jim Jeffords was replaced by Congressman Bernie Sanders

Todays, were as follows:

Alabama (Rep hold)
Alaska (Rep hold)
Arkansas (Dem hold)
Colorado (Rep hold)
Delaware (Dem hold)
Georgia Dem pick-up
Idaho (Rep hold)
Illinois (Dem hold)
Iowa (Dem hold)
Kansas (Rep hold)
Kentucky (Rep hold)
Louisiana (Dem hold)
Maine (Rep hold)
Massachusetts (Dem hold)
Michigan (Dem hold)
Minnesota Dem pick-up
Mississippi (Rep hold)
Missouri (Rep hold)
Montana (Dem hold)
Nebraska (Dem hold)
New Hampshire Dem pick-up
New Jersey (Dem hold)
New Mexico (Rep hold)
North Carolina (Rep hold)
Oklahoma (Rep hold)
Oregon (Rep hold)
Rhode Island (Dem hold)
South Carolina Dem pick-up - due to ultra-right candidate splitting the GOP vote
Tennessee (Rep hold)
Texas (Rep hold)
Virginia (Rep hold)
West Virginia (Dem hold)
Wyoming (Rep hold)

New Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent

The House remains narrowly Republican 221 to 214

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

On these issues, I am...

Law and Order - Centre Right

I oppose death penality but support the rights of states to determine whether they want it or not and I support the three strikes mandatory sentencing

Economics - Centre Left

Economics: I'm a "new liberal" in the Keynesian tradition but not anti-business (see taxation), as well as being pro-labour unions. I support the national minimum wage

Environment - Centre Right

Green fields don't create jobs!

Ethnic Minority Rights - Centre

I'm broadly supportive of full civil rights for all citizens but I don't agree with positive discrimination (i.e. ethnic quotas in employment)

Gay & Womens Rights - Centre Left

I oppose same-sex marriages as sanctified by God but support civil unions. Same-sex couples to have the same rights as any other married couple

Foreign Policy - Centre Right

I'm a hawk and in the event of diplomacy failing would support redress without UN authorisation. The interests of the United States would not be compromised. What's good for the USA is good for the world!

Abortion - Centre Right

Personally, pro-life; however, I accept that their are occasions when abortion is necessary. So I support abortion as a matter of necessity and not a matter of choice

Drugs - Centre Left

I'm pretty much anti-drugs but accept that 'soft' drugs should be legalised for medical purposes and, possibly, decriminalised for recreational use

Taxation - Centre Left

I support progressive taxation and oppose flat rate - but I wouldn't tax punitively. Companies not outsourcing jobs and those paying above the minimum wage would be given incentives

Defence - Right

I don't favour reducing defence spending from existing levels and support the war in Iraq

I'm Episcopalian (Anglican) - probably closer to its evangelical (Low Church) tradition than to its Anglo-Catholic (High Church) tradition. My faith does inform my poltics and I embrace the Social Gospel (i.e. Christ's outreach to the poor) and the principle of social justice is very important to me

I support Christian prayer in public schools (though non-Christians and atheists and secularists can opt out)

Dave

Generally you sound pretty reasonable.

Just where do you stand on the Right to Keep and Bear Arms?

[Democratic Hawk]

Generally you sound pretty reasonable.

Just where do you stand on the Right to Keep and Bear Arms?

I'm supportive of the Second Amendment and clearly believe in the rights of the people to keep and bear arms

Basically, I believe that this right be given to any able bodied citizen over eighteen years of age, with proper age restrictions for purchasing a firearm and ammunition

The question is where, and if, do you draw a line. Personally, I support the rights of people to possess handguns, rifles and shotguns - however, I don't think that those behind the Second Amendment meant individual's having the right to bear nuclear warheads, tanks, bombers, etc

So, if the Second Amendment applies to the modern equivalent of arms that were around at the time of its passing, then fine

Personally, I don't own a gun but wouldn't deny the rights of individuals to do so; however, with individual rights come responsibilities and I have a pretty much a zero tolerance when it comes to gun-related felonies

I didn't support the Assault Weapons Ban - criminals would get their hands on them (illegal or not), so it's best if the purchasing, and obtainance, of arms is done under thje full auspices of the law

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the clarification.

Let me suggest to you that some people DO own tanks.  They are primarily retired military personnel who served in tanks.  They restore and love showing off their toys.

Also, there are privately owned bombers (again primarily owned by former Air Force personnel) who also love restoring and showing off their toys.

I remember there was a contest about four years ago in which a company offered a Harrier as the top prize. 

If I ever was rich enough to afford it, I would love to own (and fly) a Catalina amphibian (a patrol bomber).

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for the clarification.

Let me suggest to you that some people DO own tanks.  They are primarily retired military personnel who served in tanks.  They restore and love showing off their toys.

Also, there are privately owned bombers (again primarily owned by former Air Force personnel) who also love restoring and showing off their toys.

I remember there was a contest about four years ago in which a company offered a Harrier as the top prize. 

If I ever was rich enough to afford it, I would love to own (and fly) a Catalina amphibian (a patrol bomber).

As long as they are toys and not weapons I don't see any harm

Dave

[7,052,770]

Prior to these elections, the US Senate was as follows:

Republican 53
Democrats 46
Independent 1 (Bernie Sanders)

In 2004, the Dems gained two seats with Bob Casey defeating GOP incumbent Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania - sorry, Phil and picked-up the open seat in Tennessee (or am I just dreamin )while retiring Vermont Independent Jim Jeffords was replaced by Congressman Bernie Sanders

Todays, were as follows:

Alabama (Rep hold)
Alaska (Rep hold)
Arkansas (Dem hold)
Colorado (Rep hold)
Delaware (Dem hold)
Georgia Dem pick-up
Idaho (Rep hold)
Illinois (Dem hold)
Iowa (Dem hold)
Kansas (Rep hold)
Kentucky (Rep hold)
Louisiana (Dem hold)
Maine (Rep hold)
Massachusetts (Dem hold)
Michigan (Dem hold)
Minnesota Dem pick-up
Mississippi (Rep hold)
Missouri (Rep hold)
Montana (Dem hold)
Nebraska (Dem hold)
New Hampshire Dem pick-up
New Jersey (Dem hold)
New Mexico (Rep hold)
North Carolina (Rep hold)
Oklahoma (Rep hold)
Oregon (Rep hold)
Rhode Island (Dem hold)
South Carolina Dem pick-up - due to ultra-right candidate splitting the GOP vote
Tennessee (Rep hold)
Texas (Rep hold)
Virginia (Rep hold)
West Virginia (Dem hold)
Wyoming (Rep hold)

New Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent

The House remains narrowly Republican 221 to 214

Dave

MS is a better shot for Dem pickup than SC.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the clarification.

Let me suggest to you that some people DO own tanks.  They are primarily retired military personnel who served in tanks.  They restore and love showing off their toys.

Also, there are privately owned bombers (again primarily owned by former Air Force personnel) who also love restoring and showing off their toys.

I remember there was a contest about four years ago in which a company offered a Harrier as the top prize. 

If I ever was rich enough to afford it, I would love to own (and fly) a Catalina amphibian (a patrol bomber).

As long as they are toys and not weapons I don't see any harm

Dave

We have a lot of people who purchase surplus military aircraft here and restore them.  Many of them then appear in movies and television shows.

[Kevin]

Hawk your family is orginally from GA?

[John Dibble]

Environment - Centre Right

Green fields don't create jobs!

Sometimes they do - I mean, you might need someone to take a lawn mower to said field, and that creates a demand for lawnmowers as well, and then there's sports players, they do their job on green fields.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk your family is orginally from GA?

Yep. The Georgia connection goes back to my maternal grandfather

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Environment - Centre Right

Green fields don't create jobs!

Sometimes they do - I mean, you might need someone to take a lawn mower to said field, and that creates a demand for lawnmowers as well, and then there's sports players, they do their job on green fields.

To a lesser extent, I suppose they do

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I think I might have overstated my chances, so I'm going to estimate my share of the vote for each state and predict each state again

The scenario is moderate Democrat (left-of-center, economically and moderately centre-right on social issues ) versus the hard-core conservative Republican ticket of Sen. Travis Logan of Oklahoma and Gov. Travis Logan of Mississippi

It's just that I've got myself winning southern states that Clinton didn't even win. So what I'm going to do is take the exit poll data from 2004 - look at Kerry's figures for party ID and ideology (as a gage), with me as a moderate rather than a liberal fairing better than Kerry among independents/ Republicans and moderates/conservatives (generally). However, in "blue states" (esp. New England and the Pacific Coast) - a Green Party candidate (left/left) syphons off some of the liberal base

Hypothetically, I'm a former Governor of Georgia and into four-years of a six year Senate term. I succeeded retiring Sen. Zell Miller.  Approval ratings as Governor peaked at 78% (average 69%), and my current approval rating as Senator is 70%. Ideologically, I'm a moderate liberal populist. My running mate is Gov. Andrew Afleitch of Pennsylvania, who's moderately libertarian

The Greens are Rich Nydall of Vermont and Catherine March of California

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 6.00pm EST:

Indiana is called for Cartwright/ Logan (R) and Kenticky is too close to call

Tally: Cartwright/Logan (R) 11 -  Gray/Afleitch (D) 0



Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.00pm (EST) in Florida (EST), Georgia, New Hampshire (EST), South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia

Polls close (CST) Indiana (CST) and Kentucky (CST)

Florida, Georgia and Vermont are called for Gray/Afleitch (D) and Kentucky is called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

New Hampshire, South Carolina and Virginia are too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 19 / Gray Afleitch (D) 45



Encouraged by close calls in Dixie. GOP must be in trouble

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.30pm (EST), North Carolina (EST), Ohio and West Virginia

Ohio and West Virginia called for Gray/Afleitch (D) and North Carolina too close to call

Tally: Cartwright/Logan (R) 19 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 70



Looking good. Roll on the North East declaring

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.00 pm (EST) in Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (EST), New Hampshire (EST), New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee (EST)

Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachussetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are called for Gray/Affleith (D)

South Carolina declares for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Michigan and Tennessee too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 27 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 142



Running strong in the Democratic North East - despite relatively good polling by the Greens

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.00pm (CST) in Alabama, Florida (CST), Illinois, Kansas (CST), Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee (CST) and Texas (CST)

Polls close at 6.00pm (MST) Kansas

Illinois is called for Gray/Afleitch (D). Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi and Oklahoma are called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Missouri, Tennessee and Texas too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) and Gray/Afleitch (D) 166



Can I lose?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.30pm (EST) North Carolina

Polls close at 7.30pm (CST) Arkansas

Arkansas is called for Gray/Afleitch (D)

North Carolina too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 55and Gray/Afleitch (D) 172



Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.00pm (EST) in New York and Rhode Island

Polls close at 8.00pm (CST) in Louisiana, Michigan (CST), Minnesota, Nebraska (CST), Souh Dakota (CST) and Wisconsin

Polls close at 7.00pm (MST) in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska (MST), New Mexico, South Dakota (MST), Texas (MST) and Wyoming

New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico are called for Gray/Afleitch (D). Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming are called for Carwright/Logan (R)

Louisiana, Arizona, Colorado and Texas are too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 66 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 249



Nearly there

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Update:

Missouri declares for Gray/Afleitch (D) and takes the Democratic tally to 260. Shortly, after Virginia declares for Gray/Afleitch (D) taking the total to 273 and the Virginian-born wife of Senator Gray, Lucy Fuller Gray is First Lady-elect. Tennessee, Texas and Arizona are called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 121 and Gray/Affleitch (D) 273 (and there it is Senator David John Gray of Georgia is President-elect of the United States of America



Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 9.00pm (CST) in Iowa and North Dakota (CST)

Polls close at 8.00pm (MST) in Idaho (MST), Montana and Oregon (MST)

Polls close at 7.00pm (PST) in Utah and Nevada

North Dakota, Idaho, Montana and Utah are called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Iowa and Nevada are too close to call and Oregon awaits count of postal ballots

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 136 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 273



Dave