Is it too late for Trump to pull ahead?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm usually pessimistic, and am still worried about Hillary losing, but I'm starting to think it's really too late for Trump. The best he can do, assuming amazing debate performances, nothing but teleprompter reading for the next month, plus a few gaffes by Hillary, is to pull even and make it 2000 all over again, though this time the Dems will have the advantage due to superior ground game. I don't think its possible for Trump to pull ahead and win by a Bush 2004 margin in either the PV or EV.

[angus]

Not at all.  New revelations are possible.  Clinton could keel over tomorrow, coughing up blood and bile.  We could be attacked by extraterrestrial aliens tomorrow who have long been in communication with The Donald. 

There's only one poll that matters.  That one takes place on November 8.

[cinyc]

It's October 5, not November 8, so, no.

[Ronnie]

Ask me after the second debate.  If Trump also loses that one decisively, I think the election is over.

[Gass3268]

To pull ahead, yes I think it is probably too late. To pull even, get within the margin of error, and end up pulling out a narrow win I think is still possible.

[Andrew]

Clinton could keel over tomorrow, coughing up blood and bile.

Why would this matter?  Are there Clinton supporters who would choose Trump over Kaine?

[Mercenary]

It was over the day Trump qas nominated.

[Xing]

No. The last thing Democrats should be doing right now is getting complacent.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No. The last thing Democrats should be doing right now is getting complacent.

As I acknowledged, Trump could definitely still pull out a squeaker. But I think any form a decisive win, even a Carter 1976 performance is impossible at this point barring some major shake up in the race.

[Horus]

No. The last thing Democrats should be doing right now is getting complacent.

[PresidentSamTilden]

I'm saying no for the "don't get complacent" mentality. His climb is getting very steep, though.

[Hermit For Peace]

Yes. I look at the long-range view. It's not likely that Hillary will keel over and cough bile and whatever. It's not likely that anything will happen to Tim Kaine. It's not likely that anything Bill Clinton says or does will make a difference.

It's not likely that Trump will change anything about how he's been operating since day one of the campaign.

It is likely that the majority of voters have been entertained by Trump and his antics, but they realize he is not Presidential material in any way, shape or form and will not vote for him in the final analysis.

The country needs Hillary, and she will do a fine job. And so will Tim Kaine.

[Person Man]

I'm saying no for the "don't get complacent" mentality. His climb is getting very steep, though.

Let's just say that it is possible, but it would require the greatest comeback in American history. Is it a distinct possibility? Yes. Is it statistically possible? No.

Not withstanding, there is still down ballot to worry about and making sure Clinton wins by enough to get a justice or two through the door.

[BoAtlantis]

The primary way Hillary loses enough for Trump to pull ahead is if Assange releases some vicious details, solely about her. If he had anything game-changing though, he would have released it by now. Absentee/early votes already started. Even if he releases, MSM other than FOX news may give it only one day cycle and just bury it.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No, but it's unlikely he will.

[mark_twain]

It is possible for Trump to win, but not on his own power.

If Clinton does not make any major mistakes between now and election day, she will certainly win. The only way for Clinton to lose is to either 1) do very poorly on one of the remaining debates, 2) say something very stupid on the magnitude of Trump's recent remarks, or 3) suffer a major health setback.

Otherwise, if Clinton does her part to convince voters to vote for her, there is nothing Trump can do to prevent her from winning.

In sports terminology, this is known as "controlling one's own destiny". At this point in the race, Clinton controls her own destiny.

[sentinel]

Tell me more about these extraterrestrials in communication with the Donald

[Rand]

Yes, because he was never going to win in the first place. A lot of Democrats think that he can win and get scared when he gets close in the polls, but the numbers don't lie. He's had some good moments, but has never had the advantage. Even when I supported Trump, I knew that I was supporting the eventual loser. Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of the last six elections. The progress with minorities, women, and millennials that the GOP had hoped to build after it's second loss to President Obama has been destroyed by Trump, and every political statistician will tell you the common sense conclusion that if Trump is under-performing a man who lost to Obama by five million votes among virtually every voter group does not have a path to the presidency. Hillary will be the 45th President of the United States.

[angus]

Tell me more about these extraterrestrials in communication with the Donald

Of course they had to promise him that they're not trying to steal our jobs before he gave them permission to land.  And only then if they'd make Hillary Clinton get really sick with their stun guns.

I was thinking that Johnson is probably the most UFO-friendly candidate, so it might not be in Trump's best interest to make that deal.

[Dr. Arch]

Here's a followup question. Has a candidate ever recovered from this kind of deficit this late in the election season and won?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tell me more about these extraterrestrials in communication with the Donald

They don't talk to us anymore after Donald took their money and spent it on hookers Ukranian trophy wives and cokeprescription uppers instead of building the spaceport they contracted.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes, it's all over.

If you have online betting in the US for President, go whack $100 on Hillary now.

A bit disappointed with Trump's debate performance.

He does throw a couple of funny one liners in, and you can see his brain operates pretty fast.

But he needs more "Government" style focus for the people, rather than reacting and commenting on himself. His ego takes over, and he often self-references to the point of being nauseating.

I dont think he even realises he is doing it.

As a billionaire, he is surrounded by sycophants he wont tell him the truth, so he lacks objective judgement outside his own interests.

[angus]

Here's a followup question. Has a candidate ever recovered from this kind of deficit this late in the election season and won?

Breckenridge was way ahead of Lincoln in October of 1860, till the October Suprise emerged and we learned that Breckenridge was taking pictures of women for Playboy magazine.  

Just kidding.  Polling wasn't bigly scientific at the time, but people were so moved that the turnout was huge.  Something like 81%.  I don't know if that has ever been bested.

You ask a good question, and I don't know the answer, but it's a really, really weird election this year.  How many candidates in the first debate said, in answer to the very first question, that if he is not the party's nominee that he will not necessarily support the party's nominee, and yet manage to win that party's nomination, even as every major elected official from that party publicly denounced him?  I don't think that the past is necessarily a good gauge this year.

[BoAtlantis]

Here's a followup question. Has a candidate ever recovered from this kind of deficit this late in the election season and won?

If I remember correctly, Bush was leading Gore pretty big after the first debate.

Then Gore closed the gap steadily and fell short anyway but the point being, anything can happen.

[rafta_rafta]

there are two events which could drasticallly improve Trump's chances

1) A major wikileaks revelation
2) A terrorist attack

The latter can seriously hurt her given how Trump has done better in polling after Sen Bernadino , Paris attacks etc.