Is it too late for Trump to pull ahead?

[ursulahx]

Here's a followup question. Has a candidate ever recovered from this kind of deficit this late in the election season and won?

I don't think so, but records are made to be broken.

[ursulahx]

Been reading slightly too many concern trolling posts and tweets lately, in which people gleefully list all the elections/votes in which the polls have been proved 'wrong' recently.

Some people are determined to discredit the entire polling industry and assume that their candidate is definitely going to win/lose because "polls don't always get it right".

But here's the thing: polls very often do get it right. And there are other means than polls by which we can predict a winner (one reason why sites like PollyVote are so valuable). Making a list of exceptions sometimes does nothing more than prove why the rule works so well.

Almost any prediction can have holes punched into it. The only sane way to approach the question is to step a very long way back and ask, "based on what we know about history, and the current state of the country, and what data we have at our disposal - which of the two outcomes seems the more probable?" Just go with that. Anything else is your emotion talking.

Which is why for several months I've been pointing out to anyone who will listen that this race is Clinton's to lose, but that the end result may be narrower than Democrats hope.