What if Trump Ran in 2012?

[anthonyjg]

He talked about it and did alright in the early polls he was included in. How could he have done in the primary? General?

[LLR]

Would've lost the primary. The climate was wrong for Trump in 2012, and for that matter, almost every year other than 2012. Anybody who thinks Trump is a master campaigner who would win any year he ran (*cough cough* NHI) is just false. If you'd like me to go into more detail about anything, I will kindly oblige.

[anthonyjg]

Would've lost the primary. The climate was wrong for Trump in 2012, and for that matter, almost every year other than 2012. Anybody who thinks Trump is a master campaigner who would win any year he ran (*cough cough* NHI) is just false. If you'd like me to go into more detail about anything, I will kindly oblige.

While I certainly think he would've been crushed in the general and that 2016 was the best year for him to run, I am curious as to why you see the 2012 primary as unwinnable for Trump.

[LLR]

Would've lost the primary. The climate was wrong for Trump in 2012, and for that matter, almost every year other than 2012. Anybody who thinks Trump is a master campaigner who would win any year he ran (*cough cough* NHI) is just false. If you'd like me to go into more detail about anything, I will kindly oblige.

While I certainly think he would've been crushed in the general and that 2016 was the best year for him to run, I am curious as to why you see the 2012 primary as unwinnable for Trump.

Any primary electorate that votes for Romney is not winnable. His coalition would've depended on harnessing would-be Gingrich and Cain voters, and unless he got a surge at the right time, he just wouldn't have enough broad appeal to win. Also I feel like Romney would've handled him better than Jeb et. al.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I also think that the Tea Party was still more active at the time and people like Brietbart (when he was still alive) had more influence on movement conservatives and there would have been more suspicion of someone like Trump.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If he had been able to get the nomination, I think it might've been better for the GOP because 2012 was probably unwinnable anyway (unlike 2016), though it might've cost them their House majority.

[Kingpoleon]

If he had been able to get the nomination, I think it might've been better for the GOP because 2012 was probably unwinnable anyway (unlike 2016), though it might've cost them their House majority.

19 OTL R to TTL D House Districts: CO-6(Joe Miklosi), FL-2(Alfred Lawson, Jr.), FL-10(Val Demings), FL-16(Keith Fitzgerald), IL-13(David Gill)*, IN-2(Brendan Mullen), IA-4(Christie Vilsack), KY-6(Ben Chandler), MI-1(Gary McDowell), MI-11(Syed Taj), MN-6(Jim Graves), MT-AL(Kim Gillan), NJ-3(Shelley Adler), NY-27(Kathy Hochul), NC-8(Larry Kissell), PA-12(Mark Critz), SC-7(Gloria Bromell Tinubu), TN-4(Eric Stewart), TX-14(Nick Lampson),
Questionable: CA-10(Jeff Denham v. Jose Hernandez), IA-3(Leonard Boswell), MI-3(Justin Amash v. Steve Pestka), NY-19(Chris Gibson v. Julian Schreibman)
Possible Primary Changes: MO-1(Russ Carnahan v. William Lacy Clay, Jr.)
Possible OTL D to R: CA-24(Abel Maldonado)

With between 220 and 224 Representatives, I can't see Nancy Pelosi holding on as Speaker. All it would take would be ten votes to topple her, possibly thirty to destroy her leadership prestige. I suspect Chris Van Hollen, Steve Israel, Steny Hoyer, John Larson, Xavier Becerra, and Jim Clyburn would be the likeliest Speakers. Of these, the first three are probably the most acceptable to Blue Dogs. Chris Van Hollen would probably be the best compromise.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's too strong in New Hampshire for Trump to get the nomination.  For that matter, if Romney had run in 2016 instead of Bush or instead of Kasich, then I think Trump fails to win NH, and thus probably doesn't win the nomination.

[NHI]

Would've lost the primary. The climate was wrong for Trump in 2012, and for that matter, almost every year other than 2012. Anybody who thinks Trump is a master campaigner who would win any year he ran (*cough cough* NHI) is just false. If you'd like me to go into more detail about anything, I will kindly oblige.

Hardly, haha. Any scenario I've presented on this what-if board about a Trump 2012 bid is purely for fun. I agree with you, there is no way he would have been elected in 2012, let alone won the nomination. 2016 was the perfect environment to win, the nomination.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The populist discontent that fueled him didn't exist to the same extent. Republicans like my Aunt and Uncle who voted for Obama twice were no yet disillusioned. Ironically, in fact, they were all in.

Part of Trump's success is that he wasn't running against the archetype of the corrupted, out of touch elite. Obama is a very likable guy (when I'm finished bitching about him and when his term ends, I'll probably rank him a C), Bernie is indisputably honest, and Biden is both. He wouldn't get far in 2012 as noted by others, but if he overcame Romney he faces an even worse opponent.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Obama would have destroyed him, and that's assuming he makes it through the primary in one piece.

[libertpaulian]

Obama wins all his 2012 states + NC, AZ, and possibly GA.