Is Roy Blunt the Pat Roberts of 2016?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

An establishment, boring, generic Republican in a red state that was thought to be safe, but who suddenly winds up tied or trailing in the polls.  However, on Election Day, he wins big, and we realize that he was never actually in danger.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

More like the John Ashcroft of 2016.

So Kander will die but win anyway?

[/]

Roy Blunt is weird.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At least pollsters bothered polling Kansas in 2014.

[JerryArkansas]

Nate Cohn on Twitter just pointed out a fact that I find interesting, in light that internals have Blunt down.  Remington, who is doing the weekly polling in MO, was suppose to release the Senate numbers today with Governor, but didn't.  They also are consulting with Blunt.  He really is down.

[Figueira]

Missouri is not Kansas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nate Cohn on Twitter just pointed out a fact that I find interesting, in light that internals have Blunt down.  Remington, who is doing the weekly polling in MO, was suppose to release the Senate numbers today with Governor, but didn't.  They also are consulting with Blunt.  He really is down.

They must really be in panic mode if true. Wow.

[Lief 🗽]

lol, Missouri is not Kansas, and 2016 is not 2014.

[Heisenberg]

More like the John Ashcroft of 2016.

So Kander will die but win anyway?

Lose a Senate race as an incumbent even though your party's presidential nominee carries your state. I still think this race is a Tossup, even though I might move it to Lean D in the next few days. Ugh!

I am in legit panic mode over this. This shouldn't even be competitive.

[heatcharger]

Another parallel that could be drawn is Jim Bunning in Kentucky back in '04.

[Xing]

I think he's more like the Mark Udall of 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

Yup.

[Maxwell]

Blunt is more outwardly offensive to me than Pat Roberts.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think he's more like the Mark Udall of 2016.

What issue does Blunt talk about to death?

[Xing]

I think he's more like the Mark Udall of 2016.

What issue does Blunt talk about to death?

I was referring to the fact that he didn't seem particularly vulnerable at first, and the trend in this state is favorable to his party, but he's getting a stronger challenge than expected.

I am glad I called this a year ago. While I underestimated McGinty (I guess?), I always thought Blunt was going to be vulnerable:

Yeah, Blunt isn't going to lose. Democrats really shouldn't spend any money on this race, 100% of what they can spend in MO should go to the governor's race.

#BluntmorevulnerablethanToomey

Eh, Blunt's basically winning all the Todd Akin voters right now. Nothing surprising here. Also don't know how this proves that Blunt's less vulnerable than Toomey, not to mention that polls one year before the election don't tell us much at all. I'd still be more shocked if Katie McGinty (lol) wins than if Kander (who might be the best Democratic recruit) wins. People here forget that Missouri just elected a liberal Senator with 55% of the vote and by a margin of 16 POINTS.

I'm not suggesting that Democrats should give up on this race. They should simply be aware that Blunt will probably win unless it's a wave year, or he makes a big blunder of some kind. If 2016 starts looking like a neutral or Republican-leaning year, Democrats shouldn't invest too much in this race, and should focus on easier pick-up opportunities.

I get your point, but that's what they said about ND and IN in 2012 Predicting individual Senate races is very difficult.

I'll admit that I did underestimate his vulnerability, but given that Toomey has trailed McGinty more often than not in recent polls, I don't think we can say that Blunt is more vulnerable than him at this point. Also, this is not shaping up to be a neutral or Republican-leaning year.

[publicunofficial]

Is Jason Kander the Heidi Heitkamp of 2016?

[Santander]

Pat Roberts is one of my favorite Senators. Hardly generic R.

[user12345]

Missouri and Indiana having two Dem senators would be quite intersting.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Jason Kander the Heidi Heitkamp of 2016?

If 538 gives Blunt a 92% chance of victory and he still loses, yes.

[jamestroll]

Nate Cohn on Twitter just pointed out a fact that I find interesting, in light that internals have Blunt down.  Remington, who is doing the weekly polling in MO, was suppose to release the Senate numbers today with Governor, but didn't.  They also are consulting with Blunt.  He really is down.

Yes.... and I think the sample of the governors poll skewed quite old, and older voters are heavily Republican in Missouri. Koster is ahead a lot more then 3, but not as much as 16.

For MO-SEN, We need a credible, non internal, public poll on this race to gauge exactly were it is.

I suspect Kander is up a little bit now.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes, and Mark Kirk could well be the Larry Hogan.

[kyc0705]

More like the John Ashcroft of 2016.

So Kander will die but win anyway?

#RIPInAdvance