Bush will pick a woman to replace O'Connor

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

...but when Rehnquist retires, Bush will go hispanic for sure.  And my hope is that it will be........................ESTRADA!

[angus]

ladies and gentlemen, you are all honored by the presence of a wise and studied poster with a somewhat enigmatic username.  Welcome back, jmfcst.

I disagree though, and would call estrada a longshot based on the possiblity of dissention of members of the senate.  It will be J. Harvie Wilkinson, III, once a law clerk to Justice Lewis F. Powell, Jr., and is a respected author on both modern Virginia political history and the federal judiciary. He was appointed to the appeals court in 1984 by Reagan and was for seven years its chief judge.  Not that Barbara Boxer and her constituents will like Wilkinson any better, but Estrada's name has too much baggage for Bush at the moment.

[The Duke]

ladies and gentlemen, you are all honored by the presence of a wise and studied poster with a somewhat enigmatic username.  Welcome back, jmfcst.

I disagree though, and would call estrada a longshot based on the possiblity of dissention of members of the senate.  It will be J. Harvie Wilkinson, III, once a law clerk to Justice Lewis F. Powell, Jr., and is a respected author on both modern Virginia political history and the federal judiciary. He was appointed to the appeals court in 1984 by Reagan and was for seven years its chief judge.  Not that Barbara Boxer and her constituents will like Wilkinson any better, but Estrada's name has too much baggage for Bush at the moment.

I really hope you're right.  Wilkinson is great.

[angus]

brief bio sketch:

http://air.fjc.gov/servlet/tGetInfo?jid=2587

[TheresNoMoney]

What do you guys like so much about Wilkinson? I don't know anything about him.

[A18]

Interstate trade clause is the most important issue.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I disagree though, and would call estrada a longshot based on the possiblity of dissention of members of the senate.  It will be J. Harvie Wilkinson, III, .... but Estrada's name has too much baggage for Bush at the moment.

IMO, I don't think any hispanic translates into baggage for Bush.  In fact, a Dem attempt to block Estrada could spell another mid-term election cycle where the GOP picks-up Senate seats.

Would any Dem Senator running for president in 2008 want to write-off Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico?  That would hand the GOP nonimee a solid base of 250 electoral votes.

[Storebought]

I disagree though, and would call estrada a longshot based on the possiblity of dissention of members of the senate.  It will be J. Harvie Wilkinson, III, .... but Estrada's name has too much baggage for Bush at the moment.

IMO, I don't think any hispanic translates into baggage for Bush.  In fact, a Dem attempt to block Estrada could spell another mid-term election cycle where the GOP picks-up Senate seats.

Would any Dem Senator running for president in 2008 want to write-off Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico?  That would hand the GOP nonimee a solid base of 250 electoral votes.

I don't think the GOP base would tolerate nominating Estrada. He's uncomfortably close to the "Anthony Kennedy", or, worse, "David Souter" mold.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I don't think the GOP base would tolerate nominating Estrada. He's uncomfortably close to the "Anthony Kennedy", or, worse, "David Souter" mold.

I thought the GOP base loves Estrada

[angus]

well, as a strategy to court hispanics, he looks good on paper, but already he's stirred up quite the vitriol from democrats who don't want Bush to beat them to that punchline.  And senate races are often driven by statewide, not national, events.  Anyway the '06 republicans you should be worried about are not from Florida.  They're from New England, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.  Granted, I may have been unduly influenced by the manhattan free alt weeklies (bird-cage liner, but hey, they're free), still Russ Smith is no mouthpiece for the anti-Bushies.  I'll try to dig up the Smith article I read recently,  meanwhile here's an exerpt from a recent village voice column ("Mondo Washington") by James Ridgeway.  

"...By all odds the most prominent, the 60-year-old Wilkinson was appointed to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia, by President Reagan in 1984 and served as chief judge from 1996 to 2003. Born in New York, he clerked for Justice Lewis Powell and worked in the Reagan administration as deputy assistant attorney general in the civil rights division. Wilkinson ran for Congress from Virginia in the early '70s and lost. Then he became editorial-page editor at the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot. He has been a professor at the University of Virginia, his alma mater. The Fourth Circuit is not only conservative but the home base for the military. And Wilkinson can be counted on to defer to the Pentagon, especially when it comes to the war on terror. It was no surprise that this judge led the Court of Appeals in ruling that Yaser Hamdi, an American citizen captured in battle in Afghanistan, could be held indefinitely without access to a lawyer. The Supreme Court had to restrain Wilkinson and overturned that decision. Wilkinson has opposed affirmative action and the Violence Against Women Act. Wilkinson's supporters argue that he is no rubber-stamp ideologue but rather a pragmatic conservative who might end up following in the steps of Sandra O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy, as opposed to Thomas and Scalia..."

[AuH2O]

Estrada is through.

Wilkinson is too old.

Personally I'd like to see Garza/Luttig.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Anyway the '06 republicans you should be worried about are not from Florida.  They're from New England, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.  

Not sure I follow you...but I think Estrada would have the full backing of the GOP members of the Senate.

But first Bush has to pick a woman to replace the "swing" vote of O'Connor.

[angus]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

[Sam Spade]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

Chafee and Santorum are extremely competitive.

Frist is retiring, fulfilling his two-term pledge.  If he were running again, his seat would not be competitive.  I question whether his seat will be competitive anyways, regardless of who runs (it is Tennessee).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd guess that (politically anyway) Bush's best pick would be a women who's generally pretty moderate but would vote the right way on certain issues. Anyone like that?

Nice to see you back Jmf, btw.

[Storebought]

I'd guess that (politically anyway) Bush's best pick would be a women who's generally pretty moderate but would vote the right way on certain issues. Anyone like that?

Nice to see you back Jmf, btw.

If by "moderate woman", you mean Janice Rogers Brown, then, yes, I see the GOP base being pleased with Bush's choice.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Nice to see you back Jmf, btw.

Well, it is for this moment "we" in the RR placed Bush in office

[angus]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

Chafee and Santorum are extremely competitive.

Frist is retiring, fulfilling his two-term pledge.  If he were running again, his seat would not be competitive.  I question whether his seat will be competitive anyways, regardless of who runs (it is Tennessee).

I'd think the volunteer state would be very competitive.  this is one of the few places where a sitting vice president actually lost his home state.  Don't take anything for granted.  The contenders are Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R), a very McCain-esque republican.  I know the Tennessee Republicans are just arrogant enough to say that "ford will lose" but don't count on Wamp not screwing up.  As for the other two, I've read enough to think that they're competitive as well, but the GOP is ready to spend some money so get ready for some serious nastiness.

sorry, for the distraction.  I return you to your supreme court discussion.



"My plan is coming together nicely . . ."
     ---Advisor Karl Rove

[Alcon]

Well, angus, that's true, but then again Gore lost his home state because it was too Republican, which doesn't bode well for the Dem's chance of an upset.

[Sam Spade]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

Chafee and Santorum are extremely competitive.

Frist is retiring, fulfilling his two-term pledge.  If he were running again, his seat would not be competitive.  I question whether his seat will be competitive anyways, regardless of who runs (it is Tennessee).

I'd think the volunteer state would be very competitive.  this is one of the few places where a sitting vice president actually lost his home state.  Don't take anything for granted.  The contenders are Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R), a very McCain-esque republican.  I know the Tennessee Republicans are just arrogant enough to say that "ford will lose" but don't count on Wamp not screwing up.  As for the other two, I've read enough to think that they're competitive as well, but the GOP is ready to spend some money so get ready for some serious nastiness.

sorry, for the distraction.  I return you to your supreme court discussion.

Hate to be almost racist here, but Ford's skin color, not to mention his father's problems, will make him pretty much a dead duck in Tennessee.  Tennessee's black population is not large compared to the rest of the South and much of it is already in Ford's CD to begin with.

The only Democrat candidate who's won statewide since 1994 has been Phil Bredesen, present governor and former mayor of Nashville.

Considering the ever-growing Nashville suburbs usually decide Tennessee statewide elections, and they trended strongly GOP in the 1990s,  I would therefore predict that the only Dem candidate who can win in Tennessee is one from the Nashville area, unless the GOP does a major meltdown in prmaries.

Ford is not that guy.

[angus]

can't say I know much about tennessee.  except it's a fine place to look for the ghost of elvis, and the place where martin luther king, jr. was shot.  still, I'd think any democrat had a decent shot of winning tennessee.  "populist" is the term that seems to be all the rage on the forum, lately.

"seems like everyone here's got a plan
it's kind of like nashville with a tan"
        --Shawn Mullins (from Lullaby, referring to L.A.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hate to be almost racist here, but Ford's skin color, not to mention his father's problems, will make him pretty much a dead duck in Tennessee.  Tennessee's black population is not large compared to the rest of the South and much of it is already in Ford's CD to begin with.

I don't think his skin colour is the problem... he has a much worse one. He's from Memphis.

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True, but then Tennessee doesn't have many statewide elections

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Either that or someone who can get very high turnouts and high %'s in the Yellow Dog areas *or* can cut down the GOP margins in East Tennessee.

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I tend to agree... which is a shame as a Southern state electing a black Senator would really mess up all the nasty stereotypes of Opebo et al...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Too bad Bush probably won't talk to Senate Democrats about his nominee like Clinton did with Senate Republicans. An BTW, The Democrats controlled the Senate when Clinton made both his appontments. If Bush can't do this common courtesy, his appointments should be fillibusted. Bush was appointed by the SCOTUS, he shouldn't be allowed to appoint whoever he wants to the SCOTUS.

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http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0465028675/ref=sib_rdr_next3_ex180/103-4499163-7166209?%5Fencoding=UTF8&keywords=orrin%20hatch%20babbitt&p=S05M&twc=&checkSum=JngUWh8FIcWWVHDf47aFli1HuKMNx41qzhXuWYX1TK4%3D#reader-page

[riceowl]

Why do people like jfern say "Bush's daddy's Supreme Court appointed him" when Bush I's justices make up 2/9 and 1 of them dissented?

Anyone? Anyone?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why do people like jfern say "Bush's daddy's Supreme Court appointed him" when Bush I's justices make up 2/9 and 1 of them dissented?

Anyone? Anyone?

Straw man.

What I said was that the SCOTUS appointed Bush 5-4.
You could also mention that one of those 5 was appointed by his daddy.