Quinnipiac National: Clinton +5

[Ozymandias]

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2386

Clinton - 45
Trump - 40
Johnson - 6
Stein - 3

H2H: Clinton 50, Trump 44

10/5-10/6, 1064 LV

EDIT: Oops, sorry, had Johnson and Stein numbers wrong.

[Dr. Arch]

Great news. #At50

[heatcharger]

It's a 5-point widening from Sept. 26 in the head-to-head, and a 4-point widening in the four-way. Good results.

[Gass3268]

This should put her over 80% in the polls-only model.

[F_S_USATN]

margin changes from Sept 26 poll:

Among GOP: Trump +7
Dem: HRC +2
Indies: HRC +21
Men: Trump +8
Women: HRC +15
Whites: HRC +1
Nonwhites: HRC +3

[Maxwell]

Trump only leads among whites by 13 - yikes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so republicans are supporting him in nearly full strength...and he still loses.

[Ozymandias]

Mike Memoli ‏@mikememoli  15m15 minutes ago
Q poll: independent voters only:
Clinton 46 (+11)
Trump 32 (-10)

Major post-debate swing

[Person Man]

Hillary still has room to grow with college kids and enthusiasm in general. I can see this ending up a  5 pointer. 49-44-6-1 sounds right.

[ApatheticAustrian]

october 5-6.....so it is including parts of the game-changing VP debate!

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 3%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

GOP
Trump 87%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 5%
Stein 0%

Indies
Clinton 46%
Trump 32%
Johnson 10%
Stein 7%

Also, 32 point gender gap in the 4-way:

men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +20

And both Johnson and Stein doing better with non-whites than whites.

[rafta_rafta]

Clinton's leading Trump by 4 points among college educated white people. Has this happened before in the last 50 years?

[RJEvans]

margin changes from Sept 26 poll:

Among GOP: Trump +7
Dem: HRC +2
Indies: HRC +21
Men: Trump +8
Women: HRC +15
Whites: HRC +1
Nonwhites: HRC +3

Independents pretty much said "f this" after the debate and dumped Trump. Question is is it sustainable.

[heatcharger]

Clinton's leading Trump by 4 points among college educated white people. Has this happened before in the last 50 years?

No. Ever since exit polls were introduced in 1952, Democrats have never won this demographic.

Although for comparison, Quinnipiac's last national survey in 2012 showed Obama leading with college-educated whites by a 5-point margin:

[RJEvans]

Mike Memoli ‏@mikememoli  15m15 minutes ago
Q poll: independent voters only:
Clinton 46 (+11)
Trump 32 (-10)

Major post-debate swing

This is why the second debate is important. Hillary can't give Independents any doubt. They moved almost en masse to her after the first debate. She needs to keep them.

[psychprofessor]

This lead is probably larger - they always low ball Hillary's percentages with POC. She probably ends up winning them by 60, not 45.

[Gass3268]

Huge chunk of millennials have moved in mass from Johnson/Stein to Clinton since mid-September.

Difference from 9/14 with voters between 18-34:

Clinton +17%
Trump +1%
Johnson - 18%
Stein -6%

Looks like the millennial outreach is working!

[StatesPoll]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us10072016_demos_Udmr62f.pdf

Sample and Methodology detail

White 68%

undersampled White. actually it could be Hillary +2~3%. not +5%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2386

Clinton - 45
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2

H2H: Clinton 50, Trump 44

10/5-10/6, 1064 LV

The link says Johnson 6, Stein 3 ?

[ProudModerate2]

Very nice ! Great news !
The RCP average right now has Clinton at +4.5 in the two-way race.
If you were to remove the most recent Gravis national poll (tied & dated Sept 27th) and the bogus LA Times/USC tracking poll, then Clinton would be at about +6 as an average.
Cant wait to see the new ABC poll.

PS: 538 has adjusted this Quinnipiac poll up, from +5 to a Clinton +7.

[Gass3268]

Very nice ! Great news !
The RCP average right now has Clinton at +4.5 in the two-way race.
If you were to remove the most recent Gravis national poll (tied & dated Sept 27th) and the bogus LA Times/USC tracking poll, then Clinton would be at about +6 as an average.
Cant wait to see the new ABC poll.

538's polls plus has Clinton up 4.9%.

[Xing]

That numbers for Independents is huge. Romney won Independents and still lost by nearly 4%. If Trump can't win Independents, he's cooked.

[rafta_rafta]

Clinton's leading Trump by 4 points among college educated white people. Has this happened before in the last 50 years?

No. Ever since exit polls were introduced in 1952, Democrats have never won this demographic.

Although for comparison, Quinnipiac's last national survey in 2012 showed Obama leading with college-educated whites by a 5-point margin:

Ah so there is still a chance that some of these folks will go back to the republican camp. Trump cannot win without doing better among white people than romney.

Unless there is a huge surge of non college educated whites who have never voted before signing up just to support trump

[Gass3268]

Clinton's leading Trump by 4 points among college educated white people. Has this happened before in the last 50 years?

No. Ever since exit polls were introduced in 1952, Democrats have never won this demographic.

Although for comparison, Quinnipiac's last national survey in 2012 showed Obama leading with college-educated whites by a 5-point margin:

Ah so there is still a chance that some of these folks will go back to the republican camp. Trump cannot win without doing better among white people than romney.

Unless there is a huge surge of non college educated whites who have never voted before signing up just to support trump

Not really

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

so republicans are supporting him in nearly full strength...and he still loses.

Party ID = FLUUUUUUUUUUID.  Trump is making less and less people ID as Republicans aka an embarrassment.

anyhoo...

HOLY MOLY AND A ROLY CANOLI!

OUTSTANDING poll!