Latino Decisions Battleground polling in AZ, FL, NV, NC

[dspNY]

Arizona: Clinton 70, Trump 18
Florida: Clinton 63, Trump 23
Nevada: Clinton 72, Trump 17
N. Carolina: Clinton 69, Trump 19

Polls taken from September 26-October 13

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/naleo/pages/190/attachments/original/1476720501/NEF_-_LD_Latino_Battleground_State_Polling_Toplines.pdf?1476720501

[Doimper]

Good stuff. Would've loved to see some numbers out of Texas, though.

[Dr. Arch]

And this is why FL is now Lean D.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, I'm hoping they poll Texas after the debate.

The polling for the pot propositions in FL & NV look very encouraging. Surprised they didn't ask AZ about their ballot question.

[rafta_rafta]

With these kind of numbers among latinos, why is GA not in play.

They have 30% african american and 8% hispanics. And Trump is doing poorer overall among white voters than Romney

[dspNY]

With these kind of numbers among latinos, why is GA not in play.

They have 38% african american and 8% hispanics. And Trump is doing poorer overall among white voters than Romney

The percentages are not that high...31% African American and 4-5% Hispanic

[rafta_rafta]

With these kind of numbers among latinos, why is GA not in play.

They have 38% african american and 8% hispanics. And Trump is doing poorer overall among white voters than Romney

The percentages are not that high...31% African American and 4-5% Hispanic

Thanks, fixed the numbers. Its still a 38% PoC state, should be easier to flip

[Nyvin]

How in the heck is Trump competitive in Nevada with numbers like that?

[Hydera]

How in the heck is Trump competitive in Nevada with numbers like that?

Hispanics are underpolled. Obama had a margin of 2.8% in RCP in 2012 and it ended up being 6.7%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This poll also explains why Cortez-Masto struggles to take a lead.
A quarter of Latinos are undecided in Nevada.

[Adam Griffin]

With these kind of numbers among latinos, why is GA not in play.

They have 38% african american and 8% hispanics. And Trump is doing poorer overall among white voters than Romney

The percentages are not that high...31% African American and 4-5% Hispanic

Thanks, fixed the numbers. Its still a 38% PoC state, should be easier to flip

Non-Hispanic Whites are actually only about 54% of the state's population, if we're talking about population alone.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, these numbers don't look very impressive. They're basically 2012 or worse, with the exception of Florida, I think. Arizona is weak (unless 2012 exit polling for Latinos was an outlier, which I'm inclined to believe). Wasn't Latino Decisions showing Latinos at or near 80% in national polling?

If it's not manifesting in states like this, then the Latino vote will merely run up the popular vote for Clinton and not flip any states...with the exception of perhaps Florida, which was the only state where Latinos made the difference between a Romney win and a Obama win in 2012 (and even that was because of Cubans).

[OneJ]

Also, these numbers don't look very impressive. They're basically 2012 or worse, with the exception of Florida, I think. Arizona is weak (unless 2012 exit polling for Latinos was an outlier, which I'm inclined to believe). Wasn't Latino Decisions showing Latinos at or near 80% in national polling?

If it's not manifesting in states like this, then the Latino vote will merely run up the popular vote for Clinton and not flip any states...with the exception of perhaps Florida, which was the only state where Latinos made the difference between a Romney win and a Obama win in 2012 (and even that was because of Cubans).

Some past polls of this company showed similar margins with Hillary not doing much better than 2012

[Virginiá]

Also, these numbers don't look very impressive. They're basically 2012 or worse, with the exception of Florida, I think. Arizona is weak (unless 2012 exit polling for Latinos was an outlier, which I'm inclined to believe). Wasn't Latino Decisions showing Latinos at or near 80% in national polling?

They are not as much as I was hoping, but the Florida numbers are substantially less. But, at the same time, Trump is getting less than Romney did, sometimes by decent amounts. 19% in NC (Trump) vs 31% (Romney), etc.

I suppose undecideds could help even that out, but it doesn't seem likely Trump will get the same as Romney.