Is the Republican majority in the House in danger?
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  Is the Republican majority in the House in danger?
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Question: Is the Republican majority in the House in danger??
#1
Yes
#2
No
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Author Topic: Is the Republican majority in the House in danger?  (Read 682 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 07, 2016, 11:39:49 PM »

I doubt the Democrats can take it, but I think it's going to be much closer than it should be.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 12:01:27 AM »

There's no evidence whatsoever that Drumpf's collapse has hurt GOP Senate candidates, let alone House ones.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2016, 12:02:45 AM »

Nope. Almost every Republican seat now that is remotely competitive would have to be won by Democrats.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2016, 12:08:20 AM »

No. Democrats may do better than we initially thought in Congressional races, which likely means that a Democratic Senate is more likely, but a Democratic House is still nearly impossible.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2016, 12:17:38 AM »

Almost certainly not, but the challenge for Republicans will be to get their base out to vote despite the inevitable landslide loss at the top of the ticket.

The problem is if the top of the ticket landslide is due to a big chunk of Republican voters staying home and not going out to vote, this will trickle down the ballot.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2016, 12:38:16 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2016, 03:06:18 AM by smoltchanov »

No. Republican candidates for Senate greatly overperform Trump. and the same will be even truer for House. Only in case of absolute Trump's crash PLUS party disarray, and that's still unlikely. Right now my House prediction still hovers about 235 - 200 in Republican favor.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2016, 01:48:46 AM »

No. Democrats may do better than we initially thought in Congressional races, which likely means that a Democratic Senate is more likely, but a Democratic House is still nearly impossible.
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Fitzgerald
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2016, 02:12:58 AM »

Nope. Almost every Republican seat now that is remotely competitive would have to be won by Democrats.

Which, considering the inevitable implosion of Republican enthusiasm after today, is entirely possible.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2016, 05:24:41 AM »

Unfortunately not. I don't give Democrats a higher chance than 10% to take the House back. Sad
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windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2016, 06:19:44 AM »

Of course it is.
I mean, Trump can totally implode, dragging them the majority with him. Unlikely, but a possibility.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2016, 03:06:04 PM »

The Republicans will lose seats, but not enough to cost them the majority.
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Green Line
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2016, 03:21:16 PM »

We need to wait and see how the dust settles on this.  Still too much happening.  If this fiasco ends up with Trump still as the nominee next week and Pence/Ryan heeled, then yes they're in big trouble.
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Orser67
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2016, 04:00:04 PM »

Of course it's in danger. Democrats have had a few recruiting fails, and the map is unfavorable to them. But Clinton could win this race by 7 or more points, which could be enough to give Democrats the House in this era of low ticket-splitting.
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