Competitive House Predictions: MN-02 to NV-04

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4

Predictions



Safe R: 202
Safe D: 176

Competitive R: 17
Competitive D: 14

Republicans: 219✔
Democrats: 190

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)
IL-10 (D+1)
IA-01 (D+1)
MI-01 (D+1)

Overall: D+7

My Predictions

MN-02: Angie Craig (D)
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D)
MT-AL: Ryan Zinke (R)
NE-02: Brad Ashford (D)
NV-03: Danny Tarkanian (R)
NV-04: Ruben Kihuen (D)

Republicans have won the majority of the house of representatives already in this prediction series.

[Gass3268]

Democrats for all except Montana, even that could be close.

[smoltchanov]

Rather difficult set of choices this time. Hope for mostly Democratic variant with only Paulsen and Zinke as exceptions...

[Xing]

Democrats pick up MN-02 and both NV seats.

[Fitzgerald]

Democrats across the board except for Montana, and even that's questionable. The Trump Republican brand is like rattlesnake venom in my neck of the woods, and the mango man's implosion today might just be enough to, ah, Sink the Zinke.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Paulsen and Zinke will probably survive. Democrats everywhere else.

[Torie]

Dems pick up MN-02 and NV-04.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MN-02: Angie Craig (D)
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R)*
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D)
MT-AL: Ryan Zinke (R)*
NE-02: Brad Ashford (D)
NV-03: Jacky Rosen (D)
NV-04: Ruben Kihuen (D)

*Like David Young (IA-3), Todd Young's open seat, and Darrell Issa, both Zinke and Paulsen's seats could easily flip if there is a medium-to-small Democratic wave in the House.  Zinke is a pretty over-hyped incumbent facing a strong challenger and he's acting like he's seeing some bad internal polling (despite the one internal he released showing him winning by a lot, and btw, the Democrat immediately responded with her own internal showing her trailing by two points).  I think Zinke has a small lead, but his opponent has the momentum and is probably only behind by like 4-5% (if that).  This could be one of those random wave upsets no one really sees coming, imo.  Paulsen is really vulnerable if things get toxic for Republicans for more obvious reasons and I almost picked Bonoff to win, but I'm airing on the side of caution since he's a pretty strong incumbent.  I may change my prediction to Bonoff depending on how next week goes for the Republicans.

[Maxwell]

Paulsen and Zinke will probably survive. Democrats everywhere else.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Dems pick up MN-02, NV-03 and NV-04.

[Heisenberg]

I agree with all of ElectionsGuy's predictions.