20% option
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  20% option
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Author Topic: 20% option  (Read 1685 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: October 08, 2016, 11:06:55 AM »

The presidential race in Utah has reached the point where having a 20% option isn't ludicrous. With both Johnson and McMillian doing well there, while I doubt it will happen, the winner there may end up with less than 30% of the vote, and you can't include that in a prediction, tho you can do that in a map.
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 11:10:29 AM »

That seems really impractical. Even third parties and write-ins made up 40% of the vote, it would still be impossible for either Trump or Clinton to get less than 30%.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2016, 12:50:04 PM »

That seems really impractical. Even third parties and write-ins made up 40% of the vote, it would still be impossible for either Trump or Clinton to get less than 30%.

If Johnson and McMullin both strengthen as a result of Trump's implosion, the following is not inconceivable:

Trump 29%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 22%
McMullin 17%
Stein 3%
Others 1%

Before this latest problem, Clinton was already polling below 30% in Utah, Trump had been polling the mid- to upper-30's and both Johnson and McMullin had been polling above 10%.

Utah's developing into a four-way race, which is of course, the only way the winner could end up with less than 30% of the vote.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2016, 07:48:53 AM »

That seems really impractical. Even third parties and write-ins made up 40% of the vote, it would still be impossible for either Trump or Clinton to get less than 30%.

If Johnson and McMullin both strengthen as a result of Trump's implosion, the following is not inconceivable:

Trump 29%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 22%
McMullin 17%
Stein 3%
Others 1%

Before this latest problem, Clinton was already polling below 30% in Utah, Trump had been polling the mid- to upper-30's and both Johnson and McMullin had been polling above 10%.

Utah's developing into a four-way race, which is of course, the only way the winner could end up with less than 30% of the vote.

Today, I could see:

McMullin 29%
Trump 28%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 12%
Other 3%
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On Fleek
on fleek
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2016, 12:03:55 PM »

Keep in mind that Alaska may be another contender for a 20% state.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2016, 06:08:34 PM »

I think it seems very clear that we will not have a >20 result until there is a four-way race for a state, and Johnson's support here has totally collapsed in favor of McMullin.
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Enduro
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 05:43:56 PM »

I think it's possible.
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