How far will Trump drop?

[Mallow]

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.

Pretty sure somewhere around a 10-point margin is what most are expecting out of this already. Which would be pretty close to a "landslide" (Obama 2008 was a 7.2 point margin)

[Person Man]

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.

Pretty sure somewhere around a 10-point margin is what most are expecting out of this already. Which would be pretty close to a "landslide" (Obama 2008 was a 7.2 point margin)

[Dr. Arch]

With a successful burying in tomorrow's debate, I fully expect something around the lines of Clinton+9 (4-Way) / Clinton+13 (Head-to-Head) average.

[Sbane]

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.

Pretty sure somewhere around a 10-point margin is what most are expecting out of this already. Which would be pretty close to a "landslide" (Obama 2008 was a 7.2 point margin)

My point is that the events themselves will only move the polls by 2 points. Almost nothing. Perhaps the reaction of the Republican party adds a couple more.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Am I the only one who thinks this will only marginally move the polls? Maybe I'm just jaded by this inexplicable election, but those who are supporting Trump are largely going to stick with him. There will be some movement on the margins and a pre-Friday 6 point lead for Hillary might become 8. If the GOP totally disowns Trump, which looks like is occurring, it might become 10 due to lower enthusiasm/turnout. I just don't see that many minds being changed though.

Sure, a lot of Republican politicians are jumping ship but they already knew this ship was going to sink even before these comments. These comments just give them an excellent excuse to distance themselves from him, and run on a message of being a check on Hillary. This doesn't mean the GOP base feels any different today. Hell, just see how Heck and Ryan were greeted by GOP voters today. That core 40-42% of the population is sticking with him.

I think it might not impact his number too much, but might shift the undecideds to Hillary at a stronger rate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think this causes Trump to drop out.

The number of elected Republicans abandoning him at this point is unprecedented.  Goldwater and McGovern had nowhere near as many defections from their party elected officials and nominated candidates as Donald Trump had BEFORE this occurred.

Before this, I thought the folks abandoning Trump were ruining their careers.  This sort of thing will give them all cover.  And I think Trump will quit.  He doesn't want to be shellacked, and he doesn't want to be responsible for the GOP taking a shellacking.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think this causes Trump to drop out.

The number of elected Republicans abandoning him at this point is unprecedented.  Goldwater and McGovern had nowhere near as many defections from their party elected officials and nominated candidates as Donald Trump had BEFORE this occurred.

Before this, I thought the folks abandoning Trump were ruining their careers.  This sort of thing will give them all cover.  And I think Trump will quit.  He doesn't want to be shellacked, and he doesn't want to be responsible for the GOP taking a shellacking.

Oh, I think he's out for blood and doesn't give a f*** about the GOP right now.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I think this causes Trump to drop out.

The number of elected Republicans abandoning him at this point is unprecedented.  Goldwater and McGovern had nowhere near as many defections from their party elected officials and nominated candidates as Donald Trump had BEFORE this occurred.

Before this, I thought the folks abandoning Trump were ruining their careers.  This sort of thing will give them all cover.  And I think Trump will quit.  He doesn't want to be shellacked, and he doesn't want to be responsible for the GOP taking a shellacking.

Oh, I think he's out for blood and doesn't give a f*** about the GOP right now.

Yeah, I don't think his ego is going to let him drop out. If anything he'll want to take the GOP down with him, especially since they're starting to turn against him.

[Person Man]

...for the 30 some odd percent of GOP Senators and Governors who did drop out...

If this is the map on 11/9...

...may God have mercy on them lest they cuck like none have before...

[politicallefty]

Since the Civil War, there has been a hard floor of about 36-38% of the popular vote for both parties that has never been broken except on just two occasions (the rather abnormal elections of 1912 and 1924). Even Goldwater, running against a very popular incumbent, managed to overperform the polls by at least a few points and hold 38% of the popular vote. I think the higher end of that hard floor is Trump's floor as well.

I think the bigger question in terms of down-ballot implications Hillary's ceiling. If Trump is stuck at 39-40%, there's a big difference between her getting 48-49% versus 52-53%. The latter would be a catastrophe up and down the ballot for Republicans. In either case, I think the Senate would fall. In the former, I think the House would be in play. In the latter, gerrymandering would not save the House for Republicans.

[RHTFT]

I don't like Trump whatsoever. I am absolutely disgusted by Trump's awful comments about women, but I don't think this scandal will hurt Trump that much. The people who were already planning to vote for Trump (AKA around 43-45% of the country) are going to vote for him no matter what. These people aren't offended by what Trump says. Plenty of them say similar stuff about women regularly. If anything, this will energize his base.

Second of all, does this scandal really surprise anyone? I think that most people have already assumed that Trump has made these sort of comments in private, and the people who were already planning to vote for him don't really care.

Sure, this scandal will hurt Trump's appeal with female (and hopefully some male) swing voters, and he probably will lose his leads in Iowa, Ohio, ME-02, and Nevada, but I still think that he will win GA and especially AZ. There are way too many anti-immigrant types in AZ for Trump to lose that state. I think that he will be behind by 6 points nationwide post hot-micgate. I think the map will look like Romney 2012-NC and NE-02. I hate to sound pessimistic, but I think you guys are overreacting. He won't be behind by double-digits nationwide and behind in states like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.

This maybe a very controversial prediction, and I really hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think this scandal will hurt Donald Trump all that much.

[Angel of Death]

Rule No.1 of the Internet: If you put anything in all caps, make really, really sure you don't misspell it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the question would be...why did the first debate hurt trump?

[Torie]

To me, when a campaign drops from having about a 25% chance of winning, to basically 0%, it has been hurt.

[Person Man]

Controversial. Anyways, Hillary must know about the expectations game tonight. The reason why Trump still kicking is because there have never been many expectations for him. I think we should just be happy that we are keeping it clise beyond the freiwall.

[egalitt]

Trump will not drop. He will rise after defeating Clinton in the second debate. Clinton will trail by 30% on November 8.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This one will hurt him.

In February 2017 when he sits down and thinks about what he could have done better, this incident will be right up there.

On the Apprentice, he offered business advice to young hopeful company executives.

Trump needed to pull his socks up 25 years ago if he wanted to be President.

As far as it sticking, this time - yes.

Effect on the polls together with the "No Federal Taxes" for 18 years will be significant.

Is there more to come? You betcha.

[Maxwell]

I don't think his support will drop that much, but I do think it might put a hard cap on his support.

[anthonyjg]

I think it's possible. Sam Wang had an interesting article (http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/08/what-color-is-the-swan/) where he argues that

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If Trump wasn't about to lose, perhaps this story wouldn't have blown up in the way it did.

[ElectionsGuy]

I agree, maybe a 2-3 point dip, and tonight's debate can add to that, but nothing groundbreaking.

[windjammer]

I agree, maybe a 2-3 point dip, and tonight's debate can add to that, but nothing groundbreaking.

This basically
The margin was right now +6-+7 ; I think it is likely it will be around 9-10 until the end of the campaign.

[Helsinkian]

It may not hurt him with his base but he needs to attract undecided voters outside that base to win, and this is poison for them.

[VPH]

Hot-micgate may not wreck Trump's image among his own fans but there are a few reasons why this seriously damages him.

1. The RNC pulling much of its support for his campaign is huge. He loses a large part of his ground game/ads/direct mail backing. That's important in this final stretch.
2. Some Republican big donors are considering backing out, which further saps the campaign's financial resources.
3. This will for sure amplify the Democratic vitriol and energy against Trump. Could actually boost D turnout some.
4. It increases infighting within the GOP and widens the gap between Trump's hardcore base and the party establishment.
5. This has to hurt at least somewhat with Evangelicals and Catholics. They may just stay home.
6. Undecided women are much more likely to break for Clinton than they were before. The swing demographic of blue collar White women bolting from Trump would spell doom for the campaign.
7. He will fail to adequately defend himself at the debate tonight, probably stepping into another trap or two.
8. More revelations are surely coming.

[Devout Centrist]

Guys it took a week or two for Trump to suffer during the Curiel Affair and Khan debacle. Wait and you will be rewarded.

[Maxwell]

I think Hot-micgate is effective enough to where it moves women pretty much permanently on Hillary's side.