Is there now a high chance of "Hillaryslide" and "Blue Tsunami"?

[ericpolitico]

As Trump campaign is exploding and RNC abandoning him

Are we seeing the coming of Hillary Landslide or Blue Tsunami or Blue wave in presidential, senate, and house elections?

Nate Silver: "If Trump gets stuck at 40 percent of the vote, you could wind up with an outcome like Clinton 51 percent, Trump 40 percent, Gary Johnson 7 percent, Jill Stein and others 2 percent, or something of that nature. That is, a double-digit win for Clinton, which could potentially yield somewhere around 400 votes for her in the Electoral College, and make states as exotic as Texas and Alaska competitive."

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's possible.  More elected Republicans and Republican candidates are abandoning Trump than did Goldwater.  More such Republicans are abandoning Trump than elected Democrats and Democratic candidates abandoned McGovern.  And by a lot.  And that was even before this.

[Person Man]

I would say something in the 9 point range would be realistic. Her getting to that is about as likely as Drumpf getting within a few thousand votes of Colorado but still not breaking teh freiwal.


It would look like this-

Montana, Indiana, Missouri, and MAYBE Alaska and Texas are in the ABSOLUTE ceiling.

Hillary                  52%
The Donald           38%
"Aleppo"                5%
That Other Stoner  2%
Mc Muffin               3%

Maybe things would get a lot worse-

Hillary 44%
The Donald 25%
Pence      20%
Johnson  5%
Stein      3%
McMuffin 3%

[heatcharger]

I honestly think Utah flips before South Carolina.

[Dr. Arch]

We need new polls STAT.

[ProudModerate2]

If the GOP goes along with the threats we are hearing, and completely stops supporting trump (financially, ground game, etc.), it very well might be a "Hillaryslide."

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We need new polls STAT.

[Xing]

I wouldn't say a high chance, so much as a possibility.

[ericpolitico]

I would say something in the 9 point range would be realistic. Her getting to that is about as likely as Drumpf getting within a few thousand votes of Colorado but still not breaking teh freiwal.


It would look like this-

Montana, Indiana, Missouri, and MAYBE Alaska and Texas are in the ABSOLUTE ceiling.

Hillary                  52%
The Donald           38%
"Aleppo"                5%
That Other Stoner  2%
Mc Muffin               3%

Maybe things would get a lot worse-

Hillary 44%
The Donald 25%
Pence      20%
Johnson  5%
Stein      3%
McMuffin 3%

I think first map is the most likely in case "Hillaryslide" is happening. I hope to see Arizona and Georgia flip!! LOVELY

[Blair]

If Trump has an awful debate, more oppo comes out and the RNC pull their funding then Trump will be screwed

[Doimper]

If Trump has an awful debate, more oppo comes out and the RNC pull their funding then Trump will be screwed

All those things look more likely to happen than not.

[afleitch]

I think America is too partisan to allow anything one or two 'blue' states more than what Obama managed.

[ursulahx]

We need new polls STAT.

I don't know about that; I rather fancy some pleasant surprises as the results come in.

[Bacon King]

If Trump has an awful debate, more oppo comes out and the RNC pull their funding then Trump will be screwed

The RNC has already pulled funding and Preibus himself is encouraging Republican operatives to end all association with Trump's campaign. It's confirmed that more damaging oppo research is on the way and I can't see how Trump could have anything but an absolutely terrible debate.

I am so excited for this election!

[Person Man]

Basically if the debate ends up a wash and the Donald is able to come up with his own oppo research (basically Russia, Congress, and various alt-right trolls) to trade barbs with Hillary, Hillary will probably do somewhere in between where she is now and the absolute minimum to win and maybe there are 200/48-49 Democrats in Congress.

Only if Trump wins the debate and the media turns decisively on Hillary like they did in September will the election be too close to call and where Trump can perhaps win by a margin between 2000 and 2004.

If Hillary does alright, I think she can keep up the momentum as it seems that it could have petered out some.

[ProudModerate2]

I agree with that first map except for South Carolina.

Yep.
(And not too sure about Georgia, but hopefully Hillary can take it.)

[Meclazine for Israel]

A couple more videos like this one and the death spiral is underway.

May already be in it.

[LLR]

I agree with that first map except for South Carolina.

We need to have a discussion